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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

07/05/19
Global Global

The artless deal

By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…

29/04/19
Spain Spain

Por una cabeza

Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election paid off. His PSOE has become the biggest party in parliament, its share of the vote at least 10% points ahead of any other. Yet one is left with a lingering sense of fragmentation, especially on the right.

26/04/19
China China

Trade thunks

We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.

Global

7th May, 2019 » The artless deal

By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency of markets is too high. It is time to lock in some equity market profits.

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Spain

29th April, 2019 » Por una cabeza

Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election paid off. His PSOE has become the biggest party in parliament, its share of the vote at least 10% points ahead of any other. Yet one is left with a lingering sense of fragmentation, especially on the right. And the PSOE will struggle to form a coalition without confronting the Catalan independence issue. The economic cost however is not likely to be too high. As long as the country’s relative growth rate holds up, we don’t expect Spanish yield spreads to rise much. We remain short the euro against the US dollar.

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China

26th April, 2019 » , , Trade thunks

We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals. A deal will not mean China returning to an export led growth model. Its economy is too large to enable it to grow via net exports. Instead this process will accelerate the shift towards domestic demand driven growth. The primary burden of all of this will fall on the Asian EM feeder economies, commodity exporters and Europe. Both the US and China should benefit from the tighter economic linkages. The deal may be the last “hurrah” for equity markets. Come year-end the Fed could be forced to tighten. It is time to lock in some equity profits. We remain short euro versus the US dollar.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

Technicals

21st May, 2019 » IS Technicals 21st May

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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Japan

20th May, 2019 » Japan Q1 GDP

First quarter real Japanese GDP registered a surprise expansion.  But digging below the surface and there isn’t that much to get excited about. Underlying demand remains weak both in terms of household spending and government.  It was left to net exports – where imports declined at a faster rate than weak exports – and a further and faster inventory build to provide the statistical boost.

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Eurozone

17th May, 2019 » Eurozone April HICP

Eurozone April inflation matched the increase the market was expecting, notably core which now stands at its highest level in 43 months.  But this really flatters the overall picture given the increase in package holiday prices (notably in Germany) which lifted the recreation component of core this month, alongside an overall uptick in corresponding services.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE