Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency of markets is too high. It is time to lock in some equity market profits.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election paid off. His PSOE has become the biggest party in parliament, its share of the vote at least 10% points ahead of any other. Yet one is left with a lingering sense of fragmentation, especially on the right. And the PSOE will struggle to form a coalition without confronting the Catalan independence issue. The economic cost however is not likely to be too high. As long as the country’s relative growth rate holds up, we don’t expect Spanish yield spreads to rise much. We remain short the euro against the US dollar.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals. A deal will not mean China returning to an export led growth model. Its economy is too large to enable it to grow via net exports. Instead this process will accelerate the shift towards domestic demand driven growth. The primary burden of all of this will fall on the Asian EM feeder economies, commodity exporters and Europe. Both the US and China should benefit from the tighter economic linkages. The deal may be the last “hurrah” for equity markets. Come year-end the Fed could be forced to tighten. It is time to lock in some equity profits. We remain short euro versus the US dollar.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS