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17/07/18
Japan
Behind the Shōji

The buoyant Japanese labour market is finally generating some wage pressure. But Japanese demographics have created a structural demand deficit…

06/07/18
Eurozone
Eurozone banking – residual problems

Europe’s debt crisis led to some meaningful banking sector reforms. Efforts to recapitalise and improve balance sheets by disposing of…

03/07/18
Italy
Italy politics: no respite

Prospects for a quiet summer look slim in Italy. Tensions between the coalition partners will rise as expensive election promises,…

Japan: Behind the Shōji

The buoyant Japanese labour market is finally generating some wage pressure. But Japanese demographics have created a structural demand deficit of epic proportions. Consumption is caught in a pincer movement between the low birth-rate and an aging population. This means that there will be little transmission from faster wages to prices. It also means that investment outflows are likely to rise. The yen will be a structurally weak currency because of this. That’s positive for Japanese equities. But it complicates the BoJ’s exit from QQE.

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Eurozone: Eurozone banking – residual problems

Europe’s debt crisis led to some meaningful banking sector reforms. Efforts to recapitalise and improve balance sheets by disposing of non-performing assets have paid dividends. But more needs to be done to secure the system and complete the long-promised Banking Union. As it stands, certain countries and institutions remain vulnerable. Italy stands out as the most exposed.

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Italy: Italy politics: no respite

Prospects for a quiet summer look slim in Italy. Tensions between the coalition partners will rise as expensive election promises, fiscal reality and the finance bill collide. We remain short BTPs, targeting a move up to 3.5-4.0%.

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