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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

18/07/19
Global Global

Moving the deckchairs for summer

There have been a number of recent developments that impact our asset allocation. First, we are adding more euro shorts…

16/07/19
Global Global

Caught in the crossfire

The state also was the key player in all the Asian emerging markets that graduated from middle-income to rich economy…

30/06/19
China China

Xi versus Trump – China wins on points

G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the…

Global

18th July, 2019 » Moving the deckchairs for summer

There have been a number of recent developments that impact our asset allocation. First, we are adding more euro shorts against the US dollar, maintaining our $1.04 price target. Second, we think we’re now at a point where gold finally has credit as an asset. And finally Brexit. The risks of a hard Brexit are rising. We move to short sterling against the dollar and euro.

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Global

16th July, 2019 » , , , , , Caught in the crossfire

The state also was the key player in all the Asian emerging markets that graduated from middle-income to rich economy status in the last 30 years. It is the historical blueprint for exactly what China is doing today: using a state-driven system to boost its technology beyond the frontiers of its historical and present competence. The US, which in many ways set the precedent, may not like being rivalled on the world stage, but it can’t stop it happening. US steps to ‘rebalance’ global trade to slow this change are a direct threat to the Asian EMs’ export growth models. We would be short developed Asia currencies (Korean won, Taiwanese and Singaporean dollars) against the renminbi. They should also lag versus the US dollar. We remain overweight Chinese equities, which will benefit from this transition.

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China

30th June, 2019 » Xi versus Trump – China wins on points

G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the global confrontation between China as the rising power and the US as the declining one. Nor a guarantee Trump won’t reignite the trade war and impose extra tariffs if it suits his agenda. It’ll give markets some breathing space, but it doesn’t fundamentally ease the pressures the global economy is wrestling with.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

Singapore

17th July, 2019 » Singapore June Trade

While there was a bit of a base effect going on the underlying export story in Singapore remained very weak in June.  Indeed, in some sectors – electronics – we’re looking at weakness not seen since the financial crisis, even if this sector is fundamentally a shrinking one as manufacturers continue to relocate offshore.

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Technicals

16th July, 2019 » IS Weekly Technicals – 16th July

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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UK

16th July, 2019 » UK June Labour Market & Wages

Another positive surprise on the wages front with a strong pick up in the headline data. The rebound in weekly wage growth was partly due to a more favourable hours worked comparison though.  Hourly wage growth has been steadier.  Alongside steady inflation means real income growth has improved, continuing the recovery we’ve seen in recent months.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE