America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict between President Trump’s protectionist instincts and his self-constructed reputation as an unparalleled ‘dealmaker’. The confrontation between these two nations is the major geopolitical story of the next decade. But momentary truces can occur! We think we’re headed towards the first pause in this saga and that a ‘trade deal’ within the ‘90-days’ allocated by the White House is likely. That would be a shot in the arm for risk assets.

Europe is suffering from a noxious combination of slowing growth and rising political risk. It also has a central bank that is slow in adapting to change, or even accepting it if you examine its latest macroeconomic projections. This backdrop reinforces the downside risks to the euro. We remain short.

Unlike most geopolitical phenomena, populism is not a high-impact low-probability event. It is hard to run your life (or portfolio) on the basis of the low probability of such a big event. So, it gets homogenised into the sludge of general geopolitical awareness that we do not forget, but do not live by. Populism is not like that, it is here now. And it is set to wax, not wane. It is corroding the civic state and will alter for the worse the globalised world order that underpins wealth creation. Thus, even if you don’t care much about humanity, you probably care quite a lot about your money. Populism will tax it.