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24/06/16
Europe
UK: Brexit – Pandora’s box opened

17/06/16
UK
UK: Brexit – potential fallout

Our base case is that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. But the shift in the polls…

09/06/16
Europe
UK – Brexit? Don’t bet on it

Although the polls continue to suggest the UK’s in/out referendum is too close to call, we maintain the view that…

Europe: UK: Brexit – Pandora’s box opened SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
UK: UK: Brexit – potential fallout

Our base case is that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. But the shift in the polls means we also need to consider the impact of an out vote on 23 June. These are the 12 risks you should weigh and be prepared to act on. GBP would initially fall 10% against the US dollar, then bounce, as a chunk of investors would think Brexit was a good thing. Then weakness would resume (probably 20% peak to trough) as it became clear it was not. A similar pattern might unfold for equities. A vote for Brexit would create enough turbulence to halt Fed hikes for the moment. Despite this, both sterling and the euro would weaken against the US dollar, but the yen could strengthen.

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Europe: UK – Brexit? Don’t bet on it

Although the polls continue to suggest the UK’s in/out referendum is too close to call, we maintain the view that the electorate will comfortably vote to ‘remain’ part of the European Union. In that case, the pound would strengthen by around 4-5% against the US dollar and gain a more modest 2-3% against the euro.

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