Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education, technology, science and space. But the sustainability of the current innovation boom is by no means certain. Their dominance is leading to increased scrutiny. While abuse of monopoly power is a bad thing, governments are poor arbiters of what is good and bad, dominated by their (often biased) political constituencies. That can result in heavy handed blanket regulation that might undermine the push into the unproven technologies that now fascinate technology leaders.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
The most dangerous fights are the ones where both contenders have total confidence they will win. The US-China trade spat is one such example. While President Trump has struck the early blows by implementing hefty trade tariffs, Chinese retaliation will involve more complex moves. Governments and central banks will try to react to support their economies. But their firepower will be insufficient to offset. Equities will be the main loser. We are neutral on the dollar short-term but ultimately US growth prospects will remain superior to the Eurozone and Japan, which makes dollar depreciation against the majors difficult. China will allow the renminbi to weaken. This environment is ultimately deflationary. If China plays the Treasuries card, volatility could spike. But ultimately bonds are still an area that central banks will target.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening trade war with China and the Fed’s intractable problem that it is now on the hook not just for price stability and maximising growth but also perfectly priced asset markets. This is a path to damnation. We have cut our long US dollar positions versus the euro.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS