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08/03/19
Europe
Contradictions

Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…

06/03/19
Global
Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has…

28/02/19
Global
Demographics – the future is now

There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But…

Europe: Contradictions

Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well behind the curve and any further shocks will merely set them further back. A weaker euro looks to be the only route out of this hole. We remain short euro versus the US dollar and long German bunds.

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Global: Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia. But there are some positive signs. This, alongside recent market turbulence, has checked central bank enthusiasm for tightening. That’s taken the boot off the neck of risk assets. Furthermore, despite the threat of ‘trade wars’, it seems that a deal between the US and China is in the offing. Add in a dose of Chinese stimulus and there looks to be at least one last leg before the global cycle finally exhausts.

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Global: Demographics – the future is now

There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies. They will continue to do so. With labour productivity growth at multi-decade lows, the medium-term prospects for global expansion are less than rosy. Before too long, we may well be flirting with a post-growth world. That would have huge implications for monetary policy, existing debt burdens and the repricing of financial assets.

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