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14/02/18
Italy
Scooting the wave

The Italian elections are unlikely to deliver a thumping victory to any party. That’ll leave a government with a weak…

13/02/18
Germany
When needs must

To remain as German Chancellor for another term, Angela Merkel has had to make serious concessions. The most important of…

08/02/18
Global
The devil’s advocate

We believe that the major global determinants of secular inflation (globalisation, technology, demography) will continue to hold price growth down.…

Italy: Scooting the wave

The Italian elections are unlikely to deliver a thumping victory to any party. That’ll leave a government with a weak mandate and limited ability to enact structural reform. But that’s not dissimilar to what we’ve already had. Italy will continue despite this, and that means gradual improvement. This is supportive for the euro. It also bodes well for Italian equities, particularly the manufacturing and export focused midcaps. We remain short Italian bonds.

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Germany: When needs must

To remain as German Chancellor for another term, Angela Merkel has had to make serious concessions. The most important of these is a commitment to spend budget surpluses and to support the SPD’s pro-European agenda by converting the European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund. With labour markets tightening and higher fiscal spending on the horizon, growth should remain robust. This will support the euro and exert upward pressure on bund yields.

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Global: The devil’s advocate

We believe that the major global determinants of secular inflation (globalisation, technology, demography) will continue to hold price growth down. But there is also an economic cycle that will inevitably raise bond yields in several ways. Should US 10-year bond yields go back to their average of the last 20 years in real terms, nominal yields would be back at 3.5% even with a modest cyclical recovery in inflation. That has implications for both equity markets and the dollar.

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