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12/12/18
Global
Vox Populi, Vox Dei – Neque Diaboli?

Unlike most geopolitical phenomena, populism is not a high-impact low-probability event. It is hard to run your life (or portfolio)…

04/12/18
Europe
ECB – late again

The ECB has a fine line to tread, since its forward guidance is out of kilter with the slowdown in…

03/12/18
Global
G20 – Xi versus Trump

The markets have been given two adrenalin shots to boost the Santa Claus rally: Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that the…

Global: Vox Populi, Vox Dei – Neque Diaboli?

Unlike most geopolitical phenomena, populism is not a high-impact low-probability event. It is hard to run your life (or portfolio) on the basis of the low probability of such a big event. So, it gets homogenised into the sludge of general geopolitical awareness that we do not forget, but do not live by. Populism is not like that, it is here now. And it is set to wax, not wane. It is corroding the civic state and will alter for the worse the globalised world order that underpins wealth creation. Thus, even if you don’t care much about humanity, you probably care quite a lot about your money. Populism will tax it.

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Europe: ECB – late again

The ECB has a fine line to tread, since its forward guidance is out of kilter with the slowdown in growth and renewed downside pressure on inflation. And that’s before factoring in other risks out there, including trade wars, Brexit and Italy. Monetary policy suddenly looks far from accommodative. A first rate hike before 2020 would now be a surprise.

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Global: G20 – Xi versus Trump

The markets have been given two adrenalin shots to boost the Santa Claus rally: Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that the Fed Funds rate was nearing neutral; and now the agreement between President’s Xi and Trump to call a 90-day truce in the imposition of further tariffs. We doubt the rally will last long.

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