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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

18/06/19
Special Report: Umbrella Idea Global

Monopolies, investment and productivity

The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education,…

06/06/19
Global Global

Pugilism is a dumb sport

The most dangerous fights are the ones where both contenders have total confidence they will win. The US-China trade spat…

05/06/19
Global Global

Duller dollar

Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

18th June, 2019 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaMonopolies, investment and productivity

The current boom in investment spending among the tech giants is now close to the entire Federal budget for education, technology, science and space. But the sustainability of the current innovation boom is by no means certain. Their dominance is leading to increased scrutiny. While abuse of monopoly power is a bad thing, governments are poor arbiters of what is good and bad, dominated by their (often biased) political constituencies. That can result in heavy handed blanket regulation that might undermine the push into the unproven technologies that now fascinate technology leaders.

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Global

6th June, 2019 » Pugilism is a dumb sport

The most dangerous fights are the ones where both contenders have total confidence they will win. The US-China trade spat is one such example. While President Trump has struck the early blows by implementing hefty trade tariffs, Chinese retaliation will involve more complex moves. Governments and central banks will try to react to support their economies. But their firepower will be insufficient to offset. Equities will be the main loser. We are neutral on the dollar short-term but ultimately US growth prospects will remain superior to the Eurozone and Japan, which makes dollar depreciation against the majors difficult. China will allow the renminbi to weaken. This environment is ultimately deflationary. If China plays the Treasuries card, volatility could spike. But ultimately bonds are still an area that central banks will target.

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Global

5th June, 2019 » Duller dollar

Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening trade war with China and the Fed’s intractable problem that it is now on the hook not just for price stability and maximising growth but also perfectly priced asset markets. This is a path to damnation. We have cut our long US dollar positions versus the euro.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

Technicals

18th June, 2019 » IS Weekly Technicals 18th June

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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US

12th June, 2019 » Macro Data – US May CPI

Slight downside surprise versus market expectations but really nothing too unexpected.  The underlying inflation story remains moderate short-term disinflation.  There is not much sign the initial raft of tariffs have had much of an effect on consumers, with goods prices a little easier.

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China

12th June, 2019 » China May Money & Credit

Money supply growth remains steady.  Credit growth has quickened a touch from April but overall there isn’t much evidence that the governments stimulus efforts have opened the credit spigots, particularly the private sector.  Debt is growing a little faster than GDP again, but not markedly.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE