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Independent Strategy adds value to it’s clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

15/04/19
US US

Deconstructing the decline in US yields

Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d…

11/04/19
Australia Australia

From blue sky mine to luck run dry?

The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable…

10/04/19
Global Global

Much ado about nothing?

The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession…

US

15th April, 2019 » , Deconstructing the decline in US yields

Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock. While we’re not bulls on growth — seeing plenty of risks out there — we don’t think we’re on the cusp of an immediate downturn. We are closing our long US 2-year Treasury position.

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Australia

11th April, 2019 » From blue sky mine to luck run dry?

The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight. Second, should the upcoming election deliver a Labor victory, there is the danger of leftward shift in economic policy. Third, in the longer run, the likelihood of slower growth in China may lead to softer demand for Australian commodities.

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Global

10th April, 2019 » Much ado about nothing?

The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

Over 20 Years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

Commodities

25th April, 2019 » CommoditiesIran oil curbs irrelevant

Trumps has decided to end the waivers the US granted for Iranian oil imports, effective end of June.  This has lifted oil prices over the past week.  Examining global production, expected output and current spare capacity estimates even the complete elimination of Iran from the global oil market is pretty inconsequential.

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Germany

25th April, 2019 » Germany April IFO Survey

The picture for German manufacturing continues to look rather bleak judging by the April IFO survey, with the modest improvement on the services side masking an even sharper deterioration in trade and industry.  This leaves the business cycle clock looking even gloomier, albeit the relative resilience of current conditions keeping us well clear of recessionary territory.

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China

24th April, 2019 » China outlook upgraded by PBoC & Politburo

Chinese stimulus effects have already shown up with an improvement of the macro data, notably the manufacturing PMI surveys, but the real economy numbers have also bounced.  This improvement now also has official recognition, with the Chinese authorities shifting their economic assessment.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE