Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
There have been a number of recent developments that impact our asset allocation. First, we are adding more euro shorts against the US dollar, maintaining our $1.04 price target. Second, we think we’re now at a point where gold finally has credit as an asset. And finally Brexit. The risks of a hard Brexit are rising. We move to short sterling against the dollar and euro.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
The state also was the key player in all the Asian emerging markets that graduated from middle-income to rich economy status in the last 30 years. It is the historical blueprint for exactly what China is doing today: using a state-driven system to boost its technology beyond the frontiers of its historical and present competence. The US, which in many ways set the precedent, may not like being rivalled on the world stage, but it can’t stop it happening. US steps to ‘rebalance’ global trade to slow this change are a direct threat to the Asian EMs’ export growth models. We would be short developed Asia currencies (Korean won, Taiwanese and Singaporean dollars) against the renminbi. They should also lag versus the US dollar. We remain overweight Chinese equities, which will benefit from this transition.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
G20 bout resulted in no knock-out! We got a trade war truce, but we didn’t get any shift in the global confrontation between China as the rising power and the US as the declining one. Nor a guarantee Trump won’t reignite the trade war and impose extra tariffs if it suits his agenda. It’ll give markets some breathing space, but it doesn’t fundamentally ease the pressures the global economy is wrestling with.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS