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22/07/16
Asia
No enthusiasm for the Asia bounce

There are signs of life in DM demand after the spring soft patch. That provides some positive news for Asian…

17/07/16
Turkey
Turkey – failed coup

Turkish President Erdogan has resumed control over the country after a military coup against his regime fizzled out. Turkey is…

11/07/16
Global
Flashpoints!

This is one of those moments in history when politics matter as much as economics for financial markets. The rise…

Asia: No enthusiasm for the Asia bounce

There are signs of life in DM demand after the spring soft patch. That provides some positive news for Asian exporters and is supporting renewed portfolio flows into EM Asia. But this is a momentum trade. It is still being driven principally by central bank liquidity and the hunt for yield. The logic of buying on expectations, rather than a real recovery in demand, is conflicted given that this would also imply an upward shift in US rate expectations, which undermines the carry story. We would avoid chasing it. Furthermore, China is still managing its currency weaker. This not only compounds existing overcapacity problems but, overtime, will pressure Asian currencies weaker. We remain short.

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Turkey: Turkey – failed coup

Turkish President Erdogan has resumed control over the country after a military coup against his regime fizzled out. Turkey is a politically unstable state with little of the criteria needed to lift it out of its ‘middle income’ category. This weekend’s events support that judgement. We have been short the Turkish currency and financial assets and remain so.

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Global: Flashpoints!

This is one of those moments in history when politics matter as much as economics for financial markets. The rise of nationalism and populism — expressions of the global ‘anger’ vote — will hold sway over the pabulum of tepid economic performance and what the central bankers have had for breakfast in data. This sets our investment positions from here.

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