Independent Strategy

Tags: Eurozone

Eurozone

POST » 17th May, 2019 » Eurozone April HICP

Eurozone April inflation matched the increase the market was expecting, notably core which now stands at its highest level in 43 months.  But this really flatters the overall picture given the increase in package holiday prices (notably in Germany) which lifted the recreation component of core this month, alongside an overall uptick in corresponding services.

This morning completed the March industrial production and orders reports for Germany.  Although the m/m bounce in industrial production extended, the prior month’s downward revision took some of the gloss off this and the y/y comparison still looks gloomy.

Unsurprising to see overall loan demand and supply conditions little changed with weaker corporate demand offset by stronger demand on the consumer side.  While banks expect corporate loan demand to pick up in the second quarter looking at underlying economic conditions this seems quite optimistic,

Germany

POST » 25th March, 2019 » March Germany IFO Survey

While there looks to have been an improvement in March it’s generally led by a better services performance.  Looking at industry the trajectory remains weak with the ‘IFO clock’ remaining in downswing territory amid a further mild deterioration in expectations.  This continues to suggest ongoing manufacturing weakness, confirming the deterioration seen in the manufacturing PMI.

Eurozone

REPORT » 8th March, 2019 » Contradictions

Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…

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