Independent Strategy

Tags: Inflation

US

POST » 11th July, 2019 » US June CPI, Weekly Claims

Slight upside surprise in June core consumer prices as headline y/y moved down amid the base effect.  The breakdown shows a further uptick in housing costs (shelter) while there has also been some upward movement in household furnishings and apparel (which was slightly less deflationary), perhaps reflecting tariff effects.

China

POST » 10th July, 2019 » China June Inflation Report

Consumer prices remained steady in June with prices actually falling m/m, which kept the y/y rate at 2.7%.  The backdrop would have been more encouraging had swine flu not taken its toll on meat prices while fresh fruit and vegetables have also soared over the past few months.

US

POST » 12th June, 2019 » US May CPI

Slight downside surprise versus market expectations but really nothing too unexpected.  The underlying inflation story remains moderate short-term disinflation.  There is not much sign the initial raft of tariffs have had much of an effect on consumers, with goods prices a little easier.

UK

POST » 22nd May, 2019 » UK April Inflation Report

While the headline rate pushed up and there was a move higher in services, core inflationary pressures looked relatively stable in April.  Future pressures look equally contained, in part reflected in steady PPI output prices.  Sterling has been weakening but the rate of decline has, thus far, has been fairly measured

Eurozone

POST » 17th May, 2019 » Eurozone April HICP

Eurozone April inflation matched the increase the market was expecting, notably core which now stands at its highest level in 43 months.  But this really flatters the overall picture given the increase in package holiday prices (notably in Germany) which lifted the recreation component of core this month, alongside an overall uptick in corresponding services.

US

POST » 10th May, 2019 » US April CPI

Modest downside surprise on both headline and core but not really anything material.  Underlying inflationary pressure remains well contained with the recent rebound driven largely by shelter.  Ex-ing that out and inflationary pressures look even more contained.

Another downside surprise for inflation.  While the headline y/y rate moved up to 1.49%, core PCE was flat on the month which took the y/y rate back down to just 1.553%.  That’s enough to round it up to 1.6% on the wires but it’s still the lowest print since Sep 2017.

UK

POST » 17th April, 2019 » UK March Inflation Report

Modest downside surprise in the consumer price numbers but really not that significant.  There is little underlying price pressure now the full effects of earlier sterling depreciation have washed through.  The main variance continues to come from energy/fuel prices.

Price data basically confirms what we knew, inflation is back in a moderating phase with dip in core highlighting that.  Income a little below expectations but the underlying wage story remains constructive, so nothing to be concerned about.  Although in terms of Fed priorities the pick-up in wage growth is not enough to offset broader demand concerns.

Global

REPORT » 14th February, 2019 » Tight-anic

Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…

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