Independent Strategy

Tags: Trade

Chinese stimulus effects have already shown up with an improvement of the macro data, notably the manufacturing PMI surveys, but the real economy numbers have also bounced.  This improvement now also has official recognition, with the Chinese authorities shifting their economic assessment.

China

POST » 12th April, 2019 » China March Trade Balance

Larger than expected surplus and notable bounce in export growth.  But given the calendar effects of Chinese New Year it’s probably best to view February/March trade data as a single batch, thus smoothing these effects.

Trade and output data surprising to the upside, boosted by what looks to be activity as firms seek to get ahead of the curve pending the previously expected March 29 Brexit data – which the March PMIs also showed amid a record increase in inventories (and not just compared to UK history, but globally).

Global

REPORT » 6th March, 2019 » Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.

In the Media