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Roche Says China Growth May Fall to 4% on Bank Crisis-Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- David Roche, president of Independent Strategy and a former Morgan Stanley global strategist, talks about the outlook for the European debt crisis, and its impact on emerging stock and commodity markets. Roche speaks with Rishaad Salamat and Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "Asia Edge."-David Roche-Bloomberg Television-09/01/12

Roche Says U.S. on Same Fiscal Trajectory as Greece-Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- David Roche, president of Independent Strategy and a former Morgan Stanley global strategist, talks about the outlook for U.S. and Greece debt problems and his investment strategy. Roche speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "Asia Edge."-David Roche-Bloomberg Television-19/09/11

Roche: China Won’t Allow Yuan Appreciation-The Chinese authorities won't allow the yuan to appreciate over the next year or so, says David Roche, global strategist at Independent Strategy Ltd. He explains why to CNBC's Karen Tso & Sri Jegarajah.-David Roche-CNBC-10/11/09

MACRO MATTERS

Commodities

25th April, 2019 » CommoditiesIran oil curbs irrelevant

Trumps has decided to end the waivers the US granted for Iranian oil imports, effective end of June.  This has lifted oil prices over the past week.  Examining global production, expected output and current spare capacity estimates even the complete elimination of Iran from the global oil market is pretty inconsequential.

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Germany

25th April, 2019 » Germany April IFO Survey

The picture for German manufacturing continues to look rather bleak judging by the April IFO survey, with the modest improvement on the services side masking an even sharper deterioration in trade and industry.  This leaves the business cycle clock looking even gloomier, albeit the relative resilience of current conditions keeping us well clear of recessionary territory.

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China

24th April, 2019 » China outlook upgraded by PBoC & Politburo

Chinese stimulus effects have already shown up with an improvement of the macro data, notably the manufacturing PMI surveys, but the real economy numbers have also bounced.  This improvement now also has official recognition, with the Chinese authorities shifting their economic assessment.

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