Trumps has decided to end the waivers the US granted for Iranian oil imports, effective end of June. This has lifted oil prices over the past week. Examining global production, expected output and current spare capacity estimates even the complete elimination of Iran from the global oil market is pretty inconsequential.
The picture for German manufacturing continues to look rather bleak judging by the April IFO survey, with the modest improvement on the services side masking an even sharper deterioration in trade and industry. This leaves the business cycle clock looking even gloomier, albeit the relative resilience of current conditions keeping us well clear of recessionary territory.
Chinese stimulus effects have already shown up with an improvement of the macro data, notably the manufacturing PMI surveys, but the real economy numbers have also bounced. This improvement now also has official recognition, with the Chinese authorities shifting their economic assessment.