Independent Strategy

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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Global

23rd May, 2019 » Horse trading  NEW

The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…

Global

7th May, 2019 » The artless deal  NEW

By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…

China

26th April, 2019 » , , Trade thunks

We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.

Global

10th April, 2019 » Much ado about nothing?

The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.

Global

6th March, 2019 » Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.

Global

14th February, 2019 » Tight-anic

Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

11th January, 2019 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaEnd of the ICE age

There have been various points of blame for weak auto sales. The most under-appreciated input has been technological innovation, as…

Global

18th December, 2018 » Star Wars

America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

3rd August, 2018 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaTechnology – saviour or curse?

It’s undeniable that we’re living in an epoch of technological transformation. And one that is unprecedented in history. With the…

Global

9th April, 2018 » Carry on?

The merits of our carry trade basket have faded over the past 12 months. There remains a yield pick-up in…

Global

8th February, 2018 » The devil’s advocate

We believe that the major global determinants of secular inflation (globalisation, technology, demography) will continue to hold price growth down.…

Global

7th February, 2018 » Fire drill

A spike in market volatility isn’t surprising. But it’s not the start of a more pronounced meltdown. Markets will recover…

Global

23rd January, 2018 » Escaping the hydra

There seems to be almost universal acceptance that central banks have created a liquidity bubble. And the logic goes that,…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

13th December, 2017 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaA big deal

Demography is perhaps the single most important investment theme over the next half century. Many of its implications will begin…

Global

9th November, 2017 » The unspoken

When we wrote Of rabbits, bankers and what matters, 19 October 2017 we spoke of the factors that would set…

Global

28th July, 2017 » Vox Populi

There isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ model for populism. It’s hard to identify in advance why social pressures morph…

Global

12th July, 2017 » The Gods of war

The US mainland is now potentially in range of North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal. Diplomacy is past its sell-by date,…

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