Independent Strategy

Horse trading

The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above 190 seats out of a total of 751. So they might be the first or second biggest single bloc, possibly ahead of the EPP, but won’t be able to dominate and, as a group will remain fractured. This still means the outlook is for an ineffective parliament. This will allow two things to happen. The Council of Ministers can grab back more power. And the illegal Spitzenkandidaten practice, that allows the largest party in the EU Parliament to appoint the next EU Commission President, will be done away with. This marks a return to business as usual for the key appointments that will follow. Our bet would be for an ineffective Manfred Weber to end up heading the EU Commission while Banque de France Governor, François Villeroy de Galhau, succeeds Mario Draghi at the ECB. For the euro this represents more of a slow, grinding deterioration, than a mad fandango.

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