Global: Protectionism – beyond the macro
Protectionism and the collapse of the business model of soft-tech giants is a bigger threat to global equity markets than rising interest rates. If the next bear market starts, it will be because of these two factors. The protectionist fall-out will hit the US economy and the dollar the hardest. This is because it represents a retreat by the US into isolationism and away from the technological drivers of economic growth. The financial market hit will be focused on US equities, bonds and the dollar but global equity markets will also share the pain.