UK: UK housing – maths versus emotions
The recent decline in UK house prices is principally function of Brexit-related uncertainty. You’d have to be mad to buy until this fog lifts. But this means there is pent-up demand to stabilise the market on a smooth transition out of the EU. The risk of a hard Brexit is inherently bad: it would lead to a broader economic recession and house price slump. But even then, we think fair value is higher than the doomsters suggest and would look to buy UK residential real estate on the first sign of economic stabilisation.