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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

23/02/21
Global Global

Too hot not to handle

Economies will overheat. Worst in the US (but UK and Australia in tow). This will start a two year equity…

17/02/21
Australia Australia

Plagues can’t kill luck

Australia has emerged as one of the more successful countries in fending off Covid. Geography played its part. But equally,…

16/02/21
Global Global

Herding cats

Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless…

Global

23rd February, 2021 » Too hot not to handle

Economies will overheat. Worst in the US (but UK and Australia in tow). This will start a two year equity bear market, starting in a matter of a few months or at the very most by the Autumn. Inflation will rise, for the reasons we have outlined many times but now too because of excessive demand growth. There will be no diversification in equity markets. Where the US leads the others will follow. Bond markets will fall in synch too. The bear market will find no succour from policy — the ammo is spent.

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Australia

17th February, 2021 » Plagues can’t kill luck

Australia has emerged as one of the more successful countries in fending off Covid. Geography played its part. But equally, the tough measures the authorities took (and continue to take) to contain the virus’ spread made a big difference. The economic and monetary policy response to the crisis was also swift and effective. Consequently, the hit to GDP has been far less than suffered elsewhere (in the developed world) and the economy is well placed to recover more rapidly too. We would be long the Australian dollar versus the US dollar.

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Global

16th February, 2021 » Herding cats

Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless patchwork of consensus ideas of endless money printing, government spending and rising equity markets. It starts with the observation that the virus is waning. It is too early for this decline to have been caused by vaccines. But if the factors causing it to happen dovetail with the rising efficacy of mass vaccinations, economies will return to “normal”. Of course, it will be a “new normal”. There would still be economic “scarring” to be dealt with. But much of this may be structural and not something that monetary or fiscal policy can cure.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

Global

24th February, 2021 » Google mobility data looking brighter

Google mobility data continues to paint an improving picture, with mobility and economic activity nudging higher again over the past week.  And the breadth of improvement is encouraging too. There was a solid increase across Europe in particular, driven by Germany but France, Italy, Spain and the UK also moved positively.  Developed Asia also fared well.  There was a modest dip in Australia amid some short-term localised lockdowns, but the damage from pre-Covid levels is far milder here anyway.

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Technicals

23rd February, 2021 » IS Weekly Technicals — 23rd February

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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Global

17th February, 2021 » Google mobility data mixed in places, trend improving

The past week hasn’t really seen any substantial shifts in activity, even if it’s increasingly clear that we’re past the worst as Covid cases continue to decline globally and the first signs of the vaccine impact start to percolate into the data. In the overall rankings, it is the Europeans that remain the most depressed compared to pre-pandemic levels of activity, with the UK languishing at the bottom of that league.  Germany and France took a step back based on the data, while there was a further mild improvement in Spain and Italy.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE