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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

17/05/24
China China

China real estate – no bazooka

The latest measures leaked and announced by China to address the real estate issue are additive to what has already…

13/05/24
Global Global

3 in 1

Fragmentation of trade and world order go hand in hand and are set to worsen. China will not help the…

19/04/24
Global Global

Middle East – small attack, big message

Israel’s minimalist, pinpoint, direct attack on Iranian military assets carries a big message to the Mullahs about the technology gap…

China

17th May, 2024 » China real estate – no bazooka

The latest measures leaked and announced by China to address the real estate issue are additive to what has already been implemented. There is no Big Bang here. And its very far from being modelled on the US Resolution Trust. The measures will help at the margin. But the systemic problems will remain.

We remain short RMB with a target of 8.20 to the USD in 12 months. We have no other exposure to Chinese assets.

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Global

13th May, 2024 » 3 in 1

Fragmentation of trade and world order go hand in hand and are set to worsen. China will not help the world return to a more balanced growth picture; it cannot fix its own supply overhang and demand deficit. But China’s continued export of deflation will support global disinflation and help western central banks ease policy in due course. The manufacturing capacity overhang with its locus in China will continue to depress profit margins in industries competing with China. Tariffs are unlikely to change that picture much. The flip side of this picture is to boost the defence sector that seeks to counter Chinese and Russian global dominance. The defence sector is now at the pinnacle of global technological advance.  This week is likely to mark a significant increase in the US tariffs on Chinese goods (particularly EVs) and the risk that sanctions are extended to Chinese banks for facilitating trade in support of the Russian war machine. The latter could potentially be bad news for markets. The question is to what extent the Europeans follow suit (after all Chinese EV exports are USD15bn compared to USD0.5bn for the US). There also hangs in the background the continued escalation in the South China Sea with the possibility of serious confrontation about the Scarborough shoal quite likely in the near term with a question mark over US involvement under its defence treaty with the Philippines which has been redefined to include defence of Philippines territorial waters.

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Global

19th April, 2024 » Middle East – small attack, big message

Israel’s minimalist, pinpoint, direct attack on Iranian military assets carries a big message to the Mullahs about the technology gap that separates the war capacity of both countries. It is a big enough to message to give the Mullah’s pause for thought and to stabilize escalation at the higher level that we have reached. The higher level of escalation is framed by Israel’s shift in policy to abolish the veil of deniability that proxies gave the Tehran regime. Ultimately further escalation is inevitable as Israel will never accept a nuclear armed Iran.

The markets will heave a sigh of relief, mistaking stabilization of escalation for de-escalation.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE