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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

16/11/20
Global Global

Of men and mice and some things nice

The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors…

13/11/20
Global Global

Covid: Deus ex laboratorium

The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro…

09/11/20
Turkey Turkey

The purge

Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…

Global

16th November, 2020 » Of men and mice and some things nice

The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors over the FAANGs. We remain neutral on the major currencies. The scenarios depicted here point to everything that is good for equities being bad for bonds. And vice versa. So negative bond/equity correlations are back. One provides a diversification for the risk of the other. We have retained gold as a risk hedge too. That is worth bearing in mind when you consider the binary, time-limited nature of the events to come.

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Global

13th November, 2020 » Covid: Deus ex laboratorium

The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro and US dollar. But we now close the rest of our EM currency shorts (we already cut our short Turkish lira position). We are also now adding a long copper position, as a symbol of potentially stronger commodities if economic recovery is bolstered by Covid vaccinations.

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Turkey

9th November, 2020 » The purge

Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a significant change in view at the heart of government. This isn’t some voluntary awakening, instead it’s a function of mounting pressure on the currency and dwindling resources to manage it. Providing the central bank is given a free hand to try and sort out the mess — i.e. allowed to hike rates — this purge should lead to a steadier lira. After falling 25% we close our short lira position versus the euro.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

US

4th December, 2020 » US November Payrolls Report

November Non-farm payrolls number came in at +245k (mkt +469k), bringing the 3m average down to +5227k.  Private sector payrolls were a little better again at +344k but there is a sequential slowdown happening there too.  Manufacturing payrolls grew by 27k while we saw another month of government job losses, -99k, the third consecutive drop.  Revisions overall were down a bit, Oct NFP revised down to 610k vs. the 638k initially reported.

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Global

2nd December, 2020 » US catching up with Europe’s down

The Google mobility indicators show a further decline in both mobility and economic activity over the past week.  The dip perhaps overstates the scale of the drop with US Thanksgiving holiday (which generated a bump in activity going into the holiday, and dip during and after) combining with tougher localised restrictions there.  The story in Europe was better.

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Technicals

1st December, 2020 » IS Weekly Technicals – 1st December

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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AWARD WINNING, EXPERIENCED, DEDICATED EXPERTISE

MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE