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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

23/05/19
Global Global

Horse trading

The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…

22/05/19
Global Global

Bad things do happen to lucky people

The reality is that the US woke up too late to the risk of China usurping them as the key…

07/05/19
Global Global

The artless deal

By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…

Global

23rd May, 2019 » Horse trading

The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above 190 seats out of a total of 751. So they might be the first or second biggest single bloc, possibly ahead of the EPP, but won’t be able to dominate and, as a group will remain fractured. This still means the outlook is for an ineffective parliament. This will allow two things to happen. The Council of Ministers can grab back more power. And the illegal Spitzenkandidaten practice, that allows the largest party in the EU Parliament to appoint the next EU Commission President, will be done away with. This marks a return to business as usual for the key appointments that will follow. Our bet would be for an ineffective Manfred Weber to end up heading the EU Commission while Banque de France Governor, François Villeroy de Galhau, succeeds Mario Draghi at the ECB. For the euro this represents more of a slow, grinding deterioration, than a mad fandango.

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Global

22nd May, 2019 » , , , Bad things do happen to lucky people

The reality is that the US woke up too late to the risk of China usurping them as the key global power. They are now playing catch up. This is all bad for global growth as the underpinnings of global trade are rewritten. Global equities are not priced for this reality. Pressure will also lead to China devaluing the renminbi. Australia looks particularly vulnerable given its pre-existing domestic economic problems. We add a short Australian dollar position versus the Singapore dollar.

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Global

7th May, 2019 » The artless deal

By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency of markets is too high. It is time to lock in some equity market profits.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

UK

24th May, 2019 » UK April Retail Sales

While there was some deceleration in retail sales growth m/m in April the numbers still bettered consensus and looking at the y/y rates activity still looks solid.  We’ve actually been in this growth range (4-6% ann. value) for pretty much the entire Brexit period, while volumes have increased more recently, after the initial hit from post-referendum inflation.

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UK

22nd May, 2019 » UK April Inflation Report

While the headline rate pushed up and there was a move higher in services, core inflationary pressures looked relatively stable in April.  Future pressures look equally contained, in part reflected in steady PPI output prices.  Sterling has been weakening but the rate of decline has, thus far, has been fairly measured

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Technicals

21st May, 2019 » IS Technicals 21st May

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE