Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
Economies will overheat. Worst in the US (but UK and Australia in tow). This will start a two year equity bear market, starting in a matter of a few months or at the very most by the Autumn. Inflation will rise, for the reasons we have outlined many times but now too because of excessive demand growth. There will be no diversification in equity markets. Where the US leads the others will follow. Bond markets will fall in synch too. The bear market will find no succour from policy — the ammo is spent.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Australia has emerged as one of the more successful countries in fending off Covid. Geography played its part. But equally, the tough measures the authorities took (and continue to take) to contain the virus’ spread made a big difference. The economic and monetary policy response to the crisis was also swift and effective. Consequently, the hit to GDP has been far less than suffered elsewhere (in the developed world) and the economy is well placed to recover more rapidly too. We would be long the Australian dollar versus the US dollar.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless patchwork of consensus ideas of endless money printing, government spending and rising equity markets. It starts with the observation that the virus is waning. It is too early for this decline to have been caused by vaccines. But if the factors causing it to happen dovetail with the rising efficacy of mass vaccinations, economies will return to “normal”. Of course, it will be a “new normal”. There would still be economic “scarring” to be dealt with. But much of this may be structural and not something that monetary or fiscal policy can cure.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS