Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors over the FAANGs. We remain neutral on the major currencies. The scenarios depicted here point to everything that is good for equities being bad for bonds. And vice versa. So negative bond/equity correlations are back. One provides a diversification for the risk of the other. We have retained gold as a risk hedge too. That is worth bearing in mind when you consider the binary, time-limited nature of the events to come.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro and US dollar. But we now close the rest of our EM currency shorts (we already cut our short Turkish lira position). We are also now adding a long copper position, as a symbol of potentially stronger commodities if economic recovery is bolstered by Covid vaccinations.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a significant change in view at the heart of government. This isn’t some voluntary awakening, instead it’s a function of mounting pressure on the currency and dwindling resources to manage it. Providing the central bank is given a free hand to try and sort out the mess — i.e. allowed to hike rates — this purge should lead to a steadier lira. After falling 25% we close our short lira position versus the euro.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS