Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
President Biden has now offered a face-to-face summit with President Putin to discuss Russia’s security concerns. So, President Biden is still bending and flubbing. Biden’s offers are unlikely to be enough though. They are likely to confirm to Putin his view that the West is too decadent to respond forcibly. War is now ultimately more likely, we give it a >55% probability. Our investment strategy as insurance against war is unchanged: long oil, natural gas, the US dollar, gold and grains. The result would also lead to a steepening of yield curves globally; long rates would rise because of the resulting inflation shock and short-end yields would fall as central banks stormed in to rescue economies.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Global assets remain highly correlated, but it seems we are on the cusp of a more significant divergence in monetary policy and indeed the macro landscape, comparing the Eurozone with the US. That should begin to erode these linkages, particularly in bond markets. While there are clearly risks on the eurozone inflation front, the ECB looks well placed to deal with these. Many of the price pressures present in the US, that are contributing to persistent inflation stateside are not embedded in the single currency zone. So while the Fed tries to catch up, the ECB has more room than the market thinks.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Japan remains an oddity. It has suffered from the pandemic but none of the residual problems seen elsewhere — specifically higher inflation — have taken hold in the aftermath. Sure, domestic demand is persistently weak and there are not really any structural reforms that can be undertaken to turn that boat around. But Japan inc. has other strings to its bow. Japanese assets overall look attractive — bonds and equities. The weaker yen policy reinforces this story.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS