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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

28/07/21
China China

What the big bank does not say

There are two key variables to consider when investing in Chinese assets. First, the change in Chinese Communist Party (CCP)…

22/07/21
Europe Europe

The ECB’s (not quite) inflation revolution

President Lagarde seemed hopeful that the ECB’s new inflation framework was a positive step forward. But the policy response seems…

20/07/21
Global Global

Re-connecting with Covid

Poor political decision-making has allowed the Covid-19 Delta variant to get a foothold among un-vaccinated groups. These still make up…

China

28th July, 2021 » What the big bank does not say

There are two key variables to consider when investing in Chinese assets. First, the change in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policy, with its invigorated emphasis on national and international goals. Second, the inevitable decline in the economy’s expansion, to a 5-6% growth rate — a trend that was hidden by the saw tooth recovery from Covid that China experienced first. Together with the structural problems of over-leverage and malinvestment we’re very cautious about Chinese equities, neutral on the currency and debt.

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Europe

22nd July, 2021 » The ECB’s (not quite) inflation revolution

President Lagarde seemed hopeful that the ECB’s new inflation framework was a positive step forward. But the policy response seems to require more action than verbiage. Besides some headline volatility, the underlying inflation story in Euroland has not really been changed by the pandemic. And inflation over the forecast horizon is falling, not rising. Monetary policy might be accommodative in the Governing Council’s eyes, but not in the eyes of prices. For the new target to remain credible, pressure on the bank will be to do more. We remain short euro versus the US dollar.

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Global

20th July, 2021 » Re-connecting with Covid

Poor political decision-making has allowed the Covid-19 Delta variant to get a foothold among un-vaccinated groups. These still make up substantial parts of the population in even the most vaccinated developed economies. The developing world is far short of levels that could be construed as being close to safe. This risks creating further turmoil, both in terms of public health and economic disruptions. And it will continue to bother markets over the summer.

 

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

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MACRO MATTERS

US

29th July, 2021 » Macro Data – US Prelim Q2 GDP

The headline Q2 GDP number looks like quite a big miss as +6.5% q/q ann. versus the +8.5% mkt median.  And Q1 was revised down a touch too.  But the underlying picture still looks pretty robust in reality.  In fact, the bulk of the miss could be attributed to the ongoing disruptions that Covid continues to generate, specifically in terms of the further sharp decline we saw in inventories, which knocked 1.1% pts from that 6.5% rate.  Government spending was also notably weak (its contribution knocking a further -0.3% pts off the headline), particularly government investment.

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Global

28th July, 2021 » Fast Track Data — Vaccination rates determining Delta hit

Amid the ongoing spread of the Delta variant the Google activity data through to 24th July is showing a fairly clear picture as to where the damage is being done.  And its perhaps not much of a surprise to see that the places where vaccine rollout has been most efficient are faring rather better than in the countries where efforts have been rather more pedestrian.

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Technicals

27th July, 2021 » IS Weekly Technicals – 27th July

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE