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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

07/07/20
Global Global

A short history of the future

This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better…

01/07/20
Global Global

Ever the best intentions

The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities.…

30/06/20
China China

Overreacher was not fiction

Writing a year or more ago when we floated the idea of the superiority of techno-autocracies over liberal democracies, it…

Global

7th July, 2020 » A short history of the future

This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better are those where behaviour reverts to pre-Covid patterns, savings rates are high, policy was effective and where manufacturing (rather than services) is a relatively large proportion of output. Nevertheless, the pandemic has resulted in a massive transfer of income and assets from the state to corporations and households and the biggest ever incurrence of liabilities by the state. This will have long-lasting effects and sets the parameters for recovery.

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Global

1st July, 2020 » Ever the best intentions

The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities. But the investment implications have not shifted quite as much. What has changed is the rationale and conviction underpinning them. Central bank dominance in costing capital and aggressive asset purchase programmes have undermined the pricing role of markets. That will be lasting. Government bonds will deliver nothing, growth focused equities will remain the premium asset of choice and all currencies will be weak. You’ll notice when measuring them against gold.

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China

30th June, 2020 » Overreacher was not fiction

Writing a year or more ago when we floated the idea of the superiority of techno-autocracies over liberal democracies, it seemed that China was set to achieve its geopolitical goals of rivalling the US on the world stage. As an intelligently-led techno-autocracy it was on course to achieve such status and for the world to accommodate its continued rise, as had been the case since the country began opening up economically. Moreover, its peer states seemed encumbered with stupid populist governments and dysfunctional systems, that would never unite to rival China. Now, like Marlowe’s anti-heroes of Faustus and Tamburlaine, overreaching makes it likely that China is turning the tables on itself. China is no longer in a position of such strength but of increasing weakness. The responsibility for this lies with President Xi.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

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MACRO MATTERS

Technicals

14th July, 2020 » IS Weekly Technicals – 14th July

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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China

10th July, 2020 » China June Money Supply & Credit

While credit extension matched consensus estimates in June the overall picture is still strong.  New loans growth is running at +13.2% y/y, well in excess of the current rate of nominal GDP growth, while the total social financing figures hit CNY3.42trn, underpinned by rising local government bond financing, which lurks in the “other” category. Year-to-date total social financing is now at 80% of the full-year 2019 numbers,

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Technicals

7th July, 2020 » IS Weekly Technicals – 7th July

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE