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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

11/10/21
Global Global

The door to where?

Supply-chain disruptions have many “local” causes but they generate global crises. Many are durable. They seem to have come together…

04/10/21
China China

Beyond Evergrande

Evergrande might be insolvent, but its liabilities look digestible for the many mouths of the Chinese state. Clamping down on…

29/09/21
Global Global

The coming togetherness

Current stress points in the global economy, like supply-side disruptions, have idiosyncratic causes but all point in one direction: the…

Global

11th October, 2021 » The door to where?

Supply-chain disruptions have many “local” causes but they generate global crises. Many are durable. They seem to have come together as an almost perfect storm in the post-Covid economy. Will they fade as service demand replaces manufactured goods demand? Probably not. This report sifts the evidence from supply-chain disruption in labour markets, energy, semi-conductors and freight transport.

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China

4th October, 2021 » Beyond Evergrande

Evergrande might be insolvent, but its liabilities look digestible for the many mouths of the Chinese state. Clamping down on the leverage that fuelled Evergrande’s rise and ultimate demise, has more significant implications though. It removes a key pillar of economic activity and more importantly weakens the primary lever (credit) that the government has used to fine-tune the economy, manage shocks and meet its all-important growth targets. It is also a case of bad timing. Common Prosperity, even if it works, has high transition costs — not least the redistribution of profits to the beneficiaries. Furthermore, the export boom that has been compensating for domestic pressures is vulnerable as he services recovery continues to evolve. This pressure should translate into further weakness in Chinese equities. We would also be short renminbi versus the US dollar.

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Global

29th September, 2021 » The coming togetherness

Current stress points in the global economy, like supply-side disruptions, have idiosyncratic causes but all point in one direction: the reversal of the great moderation. Asset prices have a long way to go to reflect that. Markets may take time to adjust. But adjust they will.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

Global

14th October, 2021 » Fast Track Data — Mobility indices shrug off disruptions

The updated Google activity data, through to 9th October, continues to paint a picture of general resilience.  Even in places like the UK, which have been subjected to disruptions (specifically fuel shortages) have held up, with barely a blip in the mobility numbers nor overall economic activity.  Indeed, the biggest decliner across Europe over the past week has been Germany, and really that is relatively mild and comes off very strong levels.  Italy, Spain and France all ticked down too.  At the top end of the scale we saw further improvements in EMs, led by India and Brazil while Japan also continues to recover from its summer soft patch.  The US is as ever static, having been that way since late spring really.

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Technicals

12th October, 2021 » IS Weekly Technicals – 12th October

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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US

8th October, 2021 » Macro Data – US September Non-Farm Payrolls

We’ve seen a further deceleration in the pace of employment growth, the September non-farm payrolls report showing just 194k jobs were created in the month, down from an upwardly revised 366k in August and well below the consensus guess of 500k.  Despite the glut of job openings there was a further decline in the participation rate too, down 0.1% pts to 61.6%, which is unchanged from a year ago.  That contributed to another steep fall in the unemployment rate, U3 down to 4.8% from 5.2% and U6 to 8.5% from 8.8%.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE