Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
Supply-chain disruptions have many “local” causes but they generate global crises. Many are durable. They seem to have come together as an almost perfect storm in the post-Covid economy. Will they fade as service demand replaces manufactured goods demand? Probably not. This report sifts the evidence from supply-chain disruption in labour markets, energy, semi-conductors and freight transport.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Evergrande might be insolvent, but its liabilities look digestible for the many mouths of the Chinese state. Clamping down on the leverage that fuelled Evergrande’s rise and ultimate demise, has more significant implications though. It removes a key pillar of economic activity and more importantly weakens the primary lever (credit) that the government has used to fine-tune the economy, manage shocks and meet its all-important growth targets. It is also a case of bad timing. Common Prosperity, even if it works, has high transition costs — not least the redistribution of profits to the beneficiaries. Furthermore, the export boom that has been compensating for domestic pressures is vulnerable as he services recovery continues to evolve. This pressure should translate into further weakness in Chinese equities. We would also be short renminbi versus the US dollar.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Current stress points in the global economy, like supply-side disruptions, have idiosyncratic causes but all point in one direction: the reversal of the great moderation. Asset prices have a long way to go to reflect that. Markets may take time to adjust. But adjust they will.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS