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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

03/06/24
South Africa South Africa

Beginning of the end?

The ZAR and South African assets underprice the risk of what is to come – and not by a little.…

24/05/24
Global Global

QT vs QE – the nature of asymmetry

QT is the shrinking of central bank balance sheets. Balance sheets of the developed countries’ central banks have shrunk nearly…

17/05/24
China China

China real estate – no bazooka

The latest measures leaked and announced by China to address the real estate issue are additive to what has already…

South Africa

3rd June, 2024 » Beginning of the end?

The ZAR and South African assets underprice the risk of what is to come – and not by a little. The ANC political monolith which held the core of society stable at the cost of economic rot and institutionalized corruption is over. The question is whether it will end in a month or a year.  There is little to replace it except failed statehood and currency freefall.  It costs about 1% a month to short the ZAR. It will be a minimum of 30% lower in a year. It has only fallen against the USD by 2.6% since the election.

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Global

24th May, 2024 » QT vs QE – the nature of asymmetry

QT is the shrinking of central bank balance sheets. Balance sheets of the developed countries’ central banks have shrunk nearly 17% from their 2022 peak. But this is not reducing liquidity in any way that matters to financial markets. There are two reasons for this explored here: “The Fire Brigade syndrome”, which makes QE & QT asymmetrical and has nothing to do with economics and a lot to do with human behaviour. And the new operating frameworks being introduced by central banks, which enhance both control of monetary policy and liquidity risks but has implications for the size of their economic footprint.

This piece examines the linkage between Quantitative Easing (QE), Quantitative Tightening (QT) and the new operating systems being introduced by central banks. Surprisingly it reveals exciting stuff. Central banks will see their economic footprint vary according to which operating system they choose!

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China

17th May, 2024 » China real estate – no bazooka

The latest measures leaked and announced by China to address the real estate issue are additive to what has already been implemented. There is no Big Bang here. And its very far from being modelled on the US Resolution Trust. The measures will help at the margin. But the systemic problems will remain.

We remain short RMB with a target of 8.20 to the USD in 12 months. We have no other exposure to Chinese assets.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

AWARD WINNING, EXPERIENCED, DEDICATED EXPERTISE

MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE