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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

04/11/19
UK UK

Beyond eternity

While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…

23/10/19
Global Global

Dethroning the dollar – a feasible impeachment path?

This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This…

17/10/19
US US

Warning signs

The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…

UK

4th November, 2019 » Beyond eternity

While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes the outlook by (largely) removing the prospect of a cliff edge exit. We think it’s time to start analysing the outlook for the UK outside the EU. In short, it doesn’t look good as Brexit will solve nothing and actually make many of the UK’s structural problems worse. Those dreaming of “Singapore on sea” have obviously never been to Singapore. The prospect of some visibility could lead to a very short-term improvement in mood, but fundamentals suggest that’ll be short lived.

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Global

23rd October, 2019 » Dethroning the dollar – a feasible impeachment path?

This report discusses what strategy would look like if the US dollar were suddenly to lose its safe-haven status. This could happen if President Trump were to be impeached, or this threat made his policies even more maverick and damaging to the global economy. A portfolio to safeguard against a sudden dethroning of the US dollar would include gold, equity puts, long US Treasuries, short renminbi and long yen.

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US

17th October, 2019 » Warning signs

The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards lengthier cycles and generally lower macroeconomic volatility (GFC aside). But, as a component in a broader basket of signals, concerns about the length of the advance certainly have validity. We think the evidence is sufficient to warrant maintaining downside protection.  The US equity market in particular is vulnerable at current valuation levels. The story for being long gold and bonds remains compelling.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

US

6th November, 2019 » US Q3 (Prelim) Productivity

A rather disappointing first assessment of US productivity in the third quarter.  Non-farm productivity registered the first qoq decline since the end of 2015.  On the positive side the yoy rate still looks a reasonable 1.4%, compared to a 5-year average of 1.1%, but the trend still lacks much conviction.  Really, we’re still flatlining at best.  Labour costs were stronger than expected, rising at a 3.6% annualised rate in the non-farm sector overall.  That’ll raise the heckles of the hawks that view the tight labour market as a risk.

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Germany

6th November, 2019 » Germany September Factory Orders

A modest bounce in German factory orders in September (+1.3% m/m wda), which has pared the yoy decline a little.  But at -4.6% yoy orders are still clearly a weak spot, having recorded 13 consecutive months of yoy declines.  That leaves total orders around 10% below their late 2017 peak.

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Technicals

5th November, 2019 » IS Weekly Technicals – 5th November

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE