Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
We are cutting our long US dollar positions. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 99 to 97 in a week. It could fall another 10% easily. The strong dollar story is dead. We have kept our EM FX short positions in place, but have switched the long side into either a basket of rather boring but sanely managed currencies. But most of all we like gold on the long side.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will split along pro- and anti-euro (and European) fault lines. We try to be neither. In the short term, meaning anything up to a year, it is likely this programme will mean an existential euro crisis is avoided. Expectations are being positively affected. This will play out in better economic results and the marginalisation of populists. On balance we would remain short euro and long gold (rather than the US dollar). But our time frame is now one year, not six months.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as probable at the outset of the crisis. But DM balance sheets are big enough to cope with the impact of a health and economic shock, even of this scale. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be a pain-free exercise, but it should be manageable, much as the financial crisis was. Not all economies are starting from this position however. The impact of Covid-19 in the emerging market (EM) universe looks to be far more serious.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS