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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

03/06/20
Global Global

The long and the short of it

We are cutting our long US dollar positions. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 99 to 97 in a…

02/06/20
Europe Europe

Calculus on a kitchen table

Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will…

27/05/20
Global Global

Developing problems

The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as…

Global

3rd June, 2020 » The long and the short of it

We are cutting our long US dollar positions. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 99 to 97 in a week. It could fall another 10% easily. The strong dollar story is dead. We have kept our EM FX short positions in place, but have switched the long side into either a basket of rather boring but sanely managed currencies. But most of all we like gold on the long side.

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Europe

2nd June, 2020 » Calculus on a kitchen table

Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will split along pro- and anti-euro (and European) fault lines. We try to be neither. In the short term, meaning anything up to a year, it is likely this programme will mean an existential euro crisis is avoided. Expectations are being positively affected. This will play out in better economic results and the marginalisation of populists. On balance we would remain short euro and long gold (rather than the US dollar). But our time frame is now one year, not six months.

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Global

27th May, 2020 » Developing problems

The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as probable at the outset of the crisis. But DM balance sheets are big enough to cope with the impact of a health and economic shock, even of this scale. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be a pain-free exercise, but it should be manageable, much as the financial crisis was. Not all economies are starting from this position however. The impact of Covid-19 in the emerging market (EM) universe looks to be far more serious.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

US

5th June, 2020 » US May Non-farm Payrolls, Hours & Wages

The disruption from the Coronavirus continues to impact the data with the employment numbers for May showing a significant deviation from expectations and the near 2mn loss reported in the May ADP report.  Indeed, based on the preliminary numbers the economy added 2.51mn jobs over the month, which compares to the 20.69mn jobs lost in April.  Methodological problems are again in evidence …

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Technicals

2nd June, 2020 » IS Weekly Technicals – 2nd June

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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Technicals

26th May, 2020 » IS Weekly Technicals – 26th May

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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AWARD WINNING, EXPERIENCED, DEDICATED EXPERTISE

MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE