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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

27/10/20
Global Global

Shifting currency gears

We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to…

22/10/20
Global Global

Central Banks and the digital rabbit hole

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not…

13/10/20
Global Global

Dodging icebergs

A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…

Global

27th October, 2020 » Shifting currency gears

We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to win the US presidential election next week. Biden will spend on investment to boost the US economy to levels the EU will not match. The US dollar will benefit as investors opt for growth.

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Global

22nd October, 2020 » Central Banks and the digital rabbit hole

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not as straightforward as the currencies created by the private pioneers. The learning curve might prove bumpy. But like all evolutions the gains far outweigh the risks. The losers are easy to identify – it’s the commercial banks. It might also ultimately be the privacy of the individual, given the insight digital currencies allow into the flow of money. It reinforces our view that investors should be long gold. Being long Bitcoin as an alternate hedge is equally interesting.

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Global

13th October, 2020 » Dodging icebergs

A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some significant implications. He would spend money on things that need money spent on them: US infrastructure, the green economy and education. All could be long-term contributors to (woeful) US productivity. The equity market might like such pro-growth spending. However it would place upward pressure on longer-term Treasury yields. Biden would also lead to some temporary abatement in US/China tensions. The cold war is here to stay but its tempo, predictability and language will change. Alongside a broadly weak US dollar, this should drive renminbi appreciation. This story is also positive for Chinese tech stocks, but the software rather than hardware side of this business.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

UK

23rd October, 2020 » UK September Retail Sales

UK September retail sales boomed again, with the headline print rising a further +1.5% m/m (Consensus Est +0.4%) taking y/y growth to +4.7%, the highest since April 2019.  Core retail sales (Ex-fuel) performed even more strongly, jumping +1.6% (mkt +0.5%) on the month and 6.4% yoy.

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Technicals

21st October, 2020 » IS Weekly Technicals – 21st October

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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Global

20th October, 2020 » Mobility Data – Diverging fortunes: East vs. West

The resurgence of Coronavirus in the developed economies, specifically Europe and to a lesser extent (so far) the US is leading to a clear divergence in economic activity  According to the latest global mobility and economic activity data (running through to 16 October), DMs continue to show a deceleration in activity.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE