Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
There are two key variables to consider when investing in Chinese assets. First, the change in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policy, with its invigorated emphasis on national and international goals. Second, the inevitable decline in the economy’s expansion, to a 5-6% growth rate — a trend that was hidden by the saw tooth recovery from Covid that China experienced first. Together with the structural problems of over-leverage and malinvestment we’re very cautious about Chinese equities, neutral on the currency and debt.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
President Lagarde seemed hopeful that the ECB’s new inflation framework was a positive step forward. But the policy response seems to require more action than verbiage. Besides some headline volatility, the underlying inflation story in Euroland has not really been changed by the pandemic. And inflation over the forecast horizon is falling, not rising. Monetary policy might be accommodative in the Governing Council’s eyes, but not in the eyes of prices. For the new target to remain credible, pressure on the bank will be to do more. We remain short euro versus the US dollar.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Poor political decision-making has allowed the Covid-19 Delta variant to get a foothold among un-vaccinated groups. These still make up substantial parts of the population in even the most vaccinated developed economies. The developing world is far short of levels that could be construed as being close to safe. This risks creating further turmoil, both in terms of public health and economic disruptions. And it will continue to bother markets over the summer.
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