Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to win the US presidential election next week. Biden will spend on investment to boost the US economy to levels the EU will not match. The US dollar will benefit as investors opt for growth.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not as straightforward as the currencies created by the private pioneers. The learning curve might prove bumpy. But like all evolutions the gains far outweigh the risks. The losers are easy to identify – it’s the commercial banks. It might also ultimately be the privacy of the individual, given the insight digital currencies allow into the flow of money. It reinforces our view that investors should be long gold. Being long Bitcoin as an alternate hedge is equally interesting.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some significant implications. He would spend money on things that need money spent on them: US infrastructure, the green economy and education. All could be long-term contributors to (woeful) US productivity. The equity market might like such pro-growth spending. However it would place upward pressure on longer-term Treasury yields. Biden would also lead to some temporary abatement in US/China tensions. The cold war is here to stay but its tempo, predictability and language will change. Alongside a broadly weak US dollar, this should drive renminbi appreciation. This story is also positive for Chinese tech stocks, but the software rather than hardware side of this business.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS