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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

23/01/20
China China

Wuhan flu – pandemic potential?

The Wuhan Coronavirus has the potential to damage asset prices like SARS did. We would need greater evidence that it…

20/01/20
Global Global

A trade deal for dummies

Trump’s ‘Phase 1’ trade deal isn’t the concrete base to build the 2020s on. It’s a short-term deal that fits…

14/01/20
India India

On a slide

There is much to worry about in India. The slowdown in growth might have coincided with global weakness, but the…

China

23rd January, 2020 » Wuhan flu – pandemic potential?

The Wuhan Coronavirus has the potential to damage asset prices like SARS did. We would need greater evidence that it is as deadly and as contagious. For the moment we do not have this data. But we believe, despite the Chinese authorities being more proactive and open, that the number of cases is being under-reported. We would take a wary stance on Asian markets until this is resolved after Chinese New Year.

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Global

20th January, 2020 » A trade deal for dummies

Trump’s ‘Phase 1’ trade deal isn’t the concrete base to build the 2020s on. It’s a short-term deal that fits with the near-term political objectives of the US administration and the immediate economic needs of the Chinese one. The underlying frictions that triggered the conflict are deep-seated. The secondary trade frictions that are likely to arise because of this deal also risk creating a deeper global macro/growth fissure, when China/US tensions inevitably flare up again.

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India

14th January, 2020 » On a slide

There is much to worry about in India. The slowdown in growth might have coincided with global weakness, but the main problems are all domestic. The political backdrop is increasingly toxic. Promises of economic reform have come to little. Ongoing banking sector problems have undermined domestic confidence, consumption and investment. Monetary policy credibility is a further problem. With inflation up and growth continuing to slow, the central bank is in a tight spot. What should give? The currency. We would be short the rupee versus the US dollar.

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Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

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MACRO MATTERS

Technicals

21st January, 2020 » IS Weekly Technicals – 21st January

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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China

17th January, 2020 » China December IP, Retail Sales & Investment

The improvement in the surveys continues to provide a realistic guide to Chia’s improving fortunes with the December real activity data corroborating this picture.  The strong recovery in industrial production is most noticeable, with y/y rate jumping to 6.9%, the highest since March

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China

16th January, 2020 » China December Money Supply & Credit

China December money supply ticked up, reflecting easier financial conditions.  We also saw solid growth in total social financing, which came in ahead of expectations.  The authorities have been keen to avoid an overt debt splurge, trying to generate more targeted easing, particularly focusing on transmission to SMEs in the private sector.  These numbers suggest this has been a partial success…

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE