Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they are either zombie corporations, kept alive by central banks’ mispricing of capital; or “hope” companies, like Uber or Netflix, which spend far more than the cash they generate. Of course, investors and bankers were throwing money at “hope” companies as they promised the glamour of growth over mundane old profits. In this pandemic shut down, these firms are going to slide into an even deeper cash flow hole though, finding it harder to finance their deficits.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky horns swirling around in your head. Unlike the war economy it suffers from a simultaneous dearth of demand and an almost total interruption of supply. Both the supply and demand
sides of the economy shut down. If this lasts a month it is sustainable. But if it lasts longer the damage to both supply and demand could be more enduring and potentially sufficient to cause a depression. Our view is that the effects of Covid-19 will be felt for quarters — not months.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis will resolve. The start-to-peak ratio of Covid-19 infections for all countries would be 40-50 days. The news for many countries would get much worse before it gets better. But ultimately, they would all peak and survive. There would be light at the end of the tunnel. This is one hell of a leap of faith.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS