Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.
Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.
The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.
We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.
After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.
Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards lengthier cycles and generally lower macroeconomic volatility (GFC aside). But, as a component in a broader basket of signals, concerns about the length of the advance certainly have validity. We think the evidence is sufficient to warrant maintaining downside protection. The US equity market in particular is vulnerable at current valuation levels. The story for being long gold and bonds remains compelling.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington pact is about having negotiations (over 3-5 weeks) to fix a deal. We doubt that, even in the event of a narrow agreement, China will comply with the broader range of US demands to change the way it manages its economy. We are leaving our key investment positions unchanged: long US Treasuries; long US dollar; long gold; short euro; short Australian dollar and holding downside option protection for equities. We continue to stay out of emerging markets.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in any economy with a realistic pricing of capital that reflects the fact that sovereign debt is not risk free. The only reason current debt is sustainable is because it costs less than the nominal growth rate in GDP.SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS