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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

14/01/21
Italy Italy

Not the real crisis (yet)

We are looking to Italy to see the re-emergence of populism and a sovereign debt crisis which would hit the…

13/01/21
Global Global

Surprise surprise

There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…

12/01/21
Germany Germany

The end is nigh

This week kicks off a momentous political year in Germany, culminating in the federal election in September and subsequent retirement…

Italy

14th January, 2021 » Not the real crisis (yet)

We are looking to Italy to see the re-emergence of populism and a sovereign debt crisis which would hit the euro. But this is not it. The likelihood is the political deck chairs will be re-arranged on the same government deck. And of course the ECB will go on funding the 10% of GDP Covid fiscal deficit for the moment.

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Global

13th January, 2021 » Surprise surprise

There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will be 1.70% by year end; equity markets will be 15% lower (having crashed by 30% first); the US dollar trend decline will continue, with momentary blips against the euro; early 2021 will be a false dawn for emerging market assets; after H1 it will become apparent that they are fall guys for low growth and global tensions ….. and all because the seamless consensus is vulnerable to quantum disruption!

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Germany

12th January, 2021 » The end is nigh

This week kicks off a momentous political year in Germany, culminating in the federal election in September and subsequent retirement of Angela Merkel. The stakes for those hoping to succeed her could scarcely be higher. None will find the job easy. Thanks to its relatively shielded manufacturing sector, Germany has contracted much less than other European economies during the pandemic. And, adjusted for population, it’s suffered half the Covid casualties. But as we’re often warned, past performance is no guide to the future.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

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MACRO MATTERS

Global

13th January, 2021 » Seasonals dropping out but underlying story still poor

As we move into 2021, we are getting a clearer picture into the extent of the slowdown in economic activity that the resurgent Coronavirus has triggered.  Although the Google mobility indices were already indicating a sharp deterioration, the scale of the decline reported through to the turn of the year was exaggerated by holiday effects, as we noted last time.  Data through to the 8th of January, which was released yesterday, gives us a clearer picture of how things stand.  And while it is not quite as bleak as over the Christmas and New Year period, the data still paints a fairly poor picture of global economic health.

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Technicals

12th January, 2021 » IS Weekly Technicals — 12th Jan

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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US

8th January, 2021 » US December Non-Farm Payrolls

December Non-farm payrolls recorded a -140k drop, quite a bit below the markets +71k guess.  This takes the 3m average down to +283k.  Private sector payrolls were a little better than the headline print at -95k, helped by manufacturing which added +38k jobs while the decline in government moderated to -45k.  That was still the fourth consecutive decline but is largely census related.  Despite the headline miss revisions were very positive, +91k in November alone

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE