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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

17/10/19
US US

Warning signs

The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…

14/10/19
Global Global

The trade deal that isn’t

The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington…

09/10/19
Global Global

Of human inconsistency

If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in…

US

17th October, 2019 » Warning signs

The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards lengthier cycles and generally lower macroeconomic volatility (GFC aside). But, as a component in a broader basket of signals, concerns about the length of the advance certainly have validity. We think the evidence is sufficient to warrant maintaining downside protection.  The US equity market in particular is vulnerable at current valuation levels. The story for being long gold and bonds remains compelling.

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Global

14th October, 2019 » The trade deal that isn’t

The trade negotiations in Washington are unlikely to shift the needle of global confidence or impending recession significantly. The Washington pact is about having negotiations (over 3-5 weeks) to fix a deal. We doubt that, even in the event of a narrow agreement, China will comply with the broader range of US demands to change the way it manages its economy. We are leaving our key investment positions unchanged: long US Treasuries; long US dollar; long gold; short euro; short Australian dollar and holding downside option protection for equities. We continue to stay out of emerging markets.

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Global

9th October, 2019 » Of human inconsistency

If debt were productive it would produce more than itself. This is what is needed to pay for it in any economy with a realistic pricing of capital that reflects the fact that sovereign debt is not risk free. The only reason current debt is sustainable is because it costs less than the nominal growth rate in GDP.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

Technicals

22nd October, 2019 » IS Weekly Technicals – 22nd October

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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China

18th October, 2019 » China September Activity Data & Q3 GDP

While China’s 3Q GDP number was a little lower than expectations at 6.0% y/y the monthly production and activity series for September all improved.  Retail sales growth picked up to 7.8% y/y from 7.5% while industrial activity rebounded to 5.8% y/y from 4.4% in August.  Investment was perhaps the one area of disappointment, growth slowing to 5.4% y/y despite a further modest pick up on the State Owned side.

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US

17th October, 2019 » US Sep Industrial Production

US industrial activity disappointed again in September, with output down -0.4% m/m.  Although there was some better news in August, with production from then revised upward a little bit, the underlying trend remains weak.  Manufacturing is still the focal point with the declines we’ve seen in non-durables spreading to durables this month.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE