Independent Strategy

Home

Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

01/04/20
Global Global

Covid and cash flow

Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…

30/03/20
Global Global

War horse

Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…

27/03/20
Global Global

National policy and the shape of pandemic curves

If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis…

Global

1st April, 2020 » Covid and cash flow

Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they are either zombie corporations, kept alive by central banks’ mispricing of capital; or “hope” companies, like Uber or Netflix, which spend far more than the cash they generate. Of course, investors and bankers were throwing money at “hope” companies as they promised the glamour of growth over mundane old profits. In this pandemic shut down, these firms are going to slide into an even deeper cash flow hole though, finding it harder to finance their deficits.

SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Global

30th March, 2020 » War horse

Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky horns swirling around in your head. Unlike the war economy it suffers from a simultaneous dearth of demand and an almost total interruption of supply. Both the supply and demand

sides of the economy shut down. If this lasts a month it is sustainable. But if it lasts longer the damage to both supply and demand could be more enduring and potentially sufficient to cause a depression. Our view is that the effects of Covid-19 will be felt for quarters — not months.

SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS
Global

27th March, 2020 » National policy and the shape of pandemic curves

If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis will resolve. The start-to-peak ratio of Covid-19 infections for all countries would be 40-50 days. The news for many countries would get much worse before it gets better. But ultimately, they would all peak and survive. There would be light at the end of the tunnel. This is one hell of a leap of faith.

SUBSCRIBE TO DOWNLOAD REPORTS

BROWSE ALL REPORTS

Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

READ MORE

In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

China

1st March, 2020 » , , Wuhan Coronavirus Statistics

Following on from our recent reports on the Wuhan Cornonavirus, the following spreadsheet offers a detailed breakdown of infections, spread and fatalities. This will be updated on an ongoing basis.

Read More...

US

1st April, 2020 » US March ADP Employment Report

ADP reported fewer than expected job losses for March, with a modest -24k drop (mkt -150k), which compares to the 3.3mn jump in initial jobless claims last week.  Partly this is due to the survey dates (it tallies responses up to the 12th of the month).  So we will see catch up next month.  Prior month was revised down to 179k from 183k.

Read More...

Technicals

31st March, 2020 » IS Weekly Technicals – 31 March

Chart pack and analysis attached.

Read More...

US

26th March, 2020 » US Jobless Claims (w/e Mar 21st)

The rapid and devastating effect of Covid-19 on the labour market is unprecedented based on this week’s jobless claims.  Initial claims in week ending came in at 3,283k which looks like a data error rather than an actual real data point.  But real it is, and further increases look likely in the coming weeks as the economic stop continues to push people out of employment.

Read More...

READ ALL POSTS

AWARD WINNING, EXPERIENCED, DEDICATED EXPERTISE

MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

FIND OUT MORE

REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE