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Independent Strategy adds value to its clients by seeking out investment themes and opportunities in Macro Investments, often challenging conventional wisdom.

Too often investment research is constrained by the narrow focus of the research provider, but we seek to create a cohesive global view. We are compact and flexible enough to respond quickly to an ever-changing investment scene.

The research is designed to benefit both short-term and longer-term strategic thinking. It carefully studies geo-political and economic events, while looking for breaks in historical trends to uncover investment opportunities.

RESEARCH

We produce 60-70 reports a year on investment strategy, dealing with multiple investment topics. The scope of the research is global.

PORTFOLIO ADVISORY

After due consultation with the client, we devise a dedicated investment benchmark and country allocation policy for a portfolio of assets.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative investments are becoming an increasingly important part of institutional investors’ portfolios.

Latest Reports

24/01/22
Russia Russia

Russia crisis – West flubs, Ukraine burns

President Biden has now offered a face-to-face summit with President Putin to discuss Russia’s security concerns. So, President Biden is…

18/01/22
Europe Europe

The ECB’s complicated exit

Global assets remain highly correlated, but it seems we are on the cusp of a more significant divergence in monetary…

11/01/22
Japan Japan

Death of demand doesn’t mean death of Japan

Japan remains an oddity. It has suffered from the pandemic but none of the residual problems seen elsewhere — specifically…

Russia

24th January, 2022 » Russia crisis – West flubs, Ukraine burns

President Biden has now offered a face-to-face summit with President Putin to discuss Russia’s security concerns. So, President Biden is still bending and flubbing. Biden’s offers are unlikely to be enough though. They are likely to confirm to Putin his view that the West is too decadent to respond forcibly. War is now ultimately more likely, we give it a >55% probability. Our investment strategy as insurance against war is unchanged: long oil, natural gas, the US dollar, gold and grains. The result would also lead to a steepening of yield curves globally; long rates would rise because of the resulting inflation shock and short-end yields would fall as central banks stormed in to rescue economies.

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Europe

18th January, 2022 » The ECB’s complicated exit

Global assets remain highly correlated, but it seems we are on the cusp of a more significant divergence in monetary policy and indeed the macro landscape, comparing the Eurozone with the US. That should begin to erode these linkages, particularly in bond markets. While there are clearly risks on the eurozone inflation front, the ECB looks well placed to deal with these. Many of the price pressures present in the US, that are contributing to persistent inflation stateside are not embedded in the single currency zone. So while the Fed tries to catch up, the ECB has more room than the market thinks.

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Japan

11th January, 2022 » Death of demand doesn’t mean death of Japan

Japan remains an oddity. It has suffered from the pandemic but none of the residual problems seen elsewhere — specifically higher inflation — have taken hold in the aftermath. Sure, domestic demand is persistently weak and there are not really any structural reforms that can be undertaken to turn that boat around. But Japan inc. has other strings to its bow. Japanese assets overall look attractive — bonds and equities. The weaker yen policy reinforces this story.

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Independent means just that

Objective + Innovative + Opportunity

Our research is based on a thoroughly objective view of the world as it is, not as some might like it to be seen.

Our work is characterised by independence of thought and a determination to focus only on money making ideas, resulting in a totally fresh and original approach compared with the overwhelming volume of reports by integrated investment houses.

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In the Media

25 years of Strategic Independence|Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority

MACRO MATTERS

Global

20th January, 2022 » Fast Track Data — Omicron drag starting to abate

The Omicron drag is still clearly present but the Google activity data through to 16th January paints a more encouraging picture than some had feared as this wave began in late November/early December.  Indeed, the mildness of the disease, alongside its rapid spread seems to have front loaded the hit to activity, which bodes well for a continuing recovery over the next few weeks.

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Technicals

18th January, 2022 » IS Weekly Technicals – 18th January

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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Technicals

11th January, 2022 » IS Weekly Technicals – 11th January

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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MEET THE TEAM

Independent Strategy: David Roche David Roche President and Global Strategist
Independent Strategy: Guido Manca Guido Manca Chief Executive Officer
Independent Strategy: John Armstrong John Armstrong Managing Director
Independent Strategy: James Lister-Cheese James Lister-Cheese Strategist and Director
Independent Strategy: Nick Kennedy Nick Kennedy Chief Economist
Independent Strategy: Bob McKee Bob McKee Consultant Economist

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REPORTS ARCHIVE

The reports archive contains chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

REPORTS ARCHIVE