The UK election campaign will be one of two strategies. The Tories will build their case around their Brexit deal while Labour will try and create a narrative around the future for Britain over the next five years (trying to move beyond their promise to renegotiate and offer the deal to the electorate via a second referendum which is likely to be on the manifesto).
First glance shows positive surprises for Wednesday’s data releases. First, we had the October ADP report which recorded a 125k jobs gain versus the 100k consensus. But there was a decent downward revision to September (-42k) and the underlying rate of growth continues to decelerate.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
While China’s 3Q GDP number was a little lower than expectations at 6.0% y/y the monthly production and activity series for September all improved. Retail sales growth picked up to 7.8% y/y from 7.5% while industrial activity rebounded to 5.8% y/y from 4.4% in August. Investment was perhaps the one area of disappointment, growth slowing to 5.4% y/y despite a further modest pick up on the State Owned side.
US industrial activity disappointed again in September, with output down -0.4% m/m. Although there was some better news in August, with production from then revised upward a little bit, the underlying trend remains weak. Manufacturing is still the focal point with the declines we’ve seen in non-durables spreading to durables this month.
The headline numbers might have missed expectations, with retail sales falling across most measures month to month. But this is really some giveback after better figures over the summer, including upward revisions to the August numbers. This is reflected in the firming of the y/y trend we’ve seen, underlying growth looking far stronger now that it was at the start of the year.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
UK employment market continued to soften over the summer, recording another rise in the claimant count. This is unsurprising given the Brexit related uncertainty and generally slower global growth environment. Employment growth slowed, particularly for male workers and the participation rate has dropped back.
China’s trade balance continues to improve, a function of persistent weakness for imports which again outweighed soft, if patchy, export demand. The locus of the export demand problem remains the US which is being offset by ongoing growth from the Eurozone and parts of Asia, the exceptions being Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, which have continued to contract.
Charts and analysis attached.
Perfect jobs number for the optimists. While the headline rate was a bit below expectations upward revisions took the edge off the weak August and to a lesser extent July numbers. Meanwhile the unemployment rate fell further, from 3.7% to 3.5% while the U6 rate fell to 6.9% from 7.2%. But look a little deeper and things don’t look quite too hot.
Another weak ADP number, both for the current month but notably also the sharp downward revisions to the August release. The private sector survey suggested 135k jobs were added last month from a downwardly revised 157k in August. If we compare Q3 job creating this year to last year the total has slowed from 642k to 434k, t’s quite a drop.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
