Independent Strategy

Macro Matters

October 2020

Independent Strategy Blog: Macro Matters
UK

23rd October, 2020 » UK September Retail Sales

UK September retail sales boomed again, with the headline print rising a further +1.5% m/m (Consensus Est +0.4%) taking y/y growth to +4.7%, the highest since April 2019.  Core retail sales (Ex-fuel) performed even more strongly, jumping +1.6% (mkt +0.5%) on the month and 6.4% yoy.

The resurgence of Coronavirus in the developed economies, specifically Europe and to a lesser extent (so far) the US is leading to a clear divergence in economic activity  According to the latest global mobility and economic activity data (running through to 16 October), DMs continue to show a deceleration in activity.

Global mobility and economic activity data, published by Google, is pointing to some loss in the momentum of recovery.  Although the mobility indices continue to register small improvements (despite the resurgence of the virus in many places), economic activity is not following through from that.

China

7th October, 2020 » China September Reserves

China’s September reserve numbers showed a modest decline to US$3.143trn from US$3.165trn in August.  And nearly all of this can be accounted for by FX valuation adjustments.  Given the large trade and current account surplus China is currently running though this still implies ongoing outflows of capital, with our rough calculations pointing to an annualised outflow of US$200bn.

To refresh, these indices measure the level of activity as measured against the pre-pandemic level using the Google Mobility Indexes, adjusted by Independent Strategy.  Activity is a smoothed average of the economic and mobility measures, which provides a guide to the current recovery trend.  The data runs through to the end of September.

US

2nd October, 2020 » US September Payrolls

September non-farm payrolls number came in under expectations at +661k (mkt +850k).  But the private payrolls number bettered at +877k vs. 850k mkt, while manufacturing payrolls also beat (+66k vs. +35k est) with a loss of 216k on the government side explaining the headline miss.  There was a sizable upward revision to the jobs gained in August too.

Tags

ADP (7) Agriculturals (1) Asia crisis (1) Asset Allocation (1) Australia (2) Autos (1) Bank of Japan (1) Big Data (1) BoJ (1) Bonds (6) Brazil (1) Brexit (5) Canada (1) Capital Goods (2) Central Bank (8) Challenger (1) China (18) Claims (1) Climate change (2) Commodities (1) Copper (1) Coronavirus (4) Corporate Bonds (1) Corporate Debt (2) Covid (1) Covid-19 (5) CPI (7) Credit (37) Current Account (1) Debt (2) Debt Crisis (4) Democracy (4) Demographics (9) Disruptive Technologies (4) Durable Goods (1) Earnings (1) ECB (9) Elections (2) Emerging Markets (4) Employment (10) Equities (1) Euro (3) Eurogroup (1) Europe (2) Eurozone (19) Exports (2) Factory Orders (6) Federal Reserve (7) Fixed Income (2) France (1) FX (2) GDP (11) Germany (15) Globalisation (8) Global Pandemic (2) Gold (2) Google Mobility (4) HICP (1) Hong Kong (1) Housing (4) IFO (3) Income (1) India (1) Industrial Production (9) Inflation (22) Interest Rates (11) Internet (1) Investment (5) IP (9) Iran (4) Ireland (1) ISM (2) Italy (6) Japan (5) Jobless Claims (1) Korea (3) Labour Market (10) Liquidity (8) Manufacturing (3) Monetary Policy (18) Money (4) Money Market (1) Money Supply (12) Myanmar (1) New Monetarism (6) New Zealand (1) Oil (6) Online (1) Payrolls (10) PCE (2) PMI (1) PMIs (1) Politics (9) Populism (6) Portugal (1) PPI (4) Production (1) Productivity (2) Profits (1) QE (5) Real Estate (1) Reserves (1) Retail Sales (11) Russia (2) Services (3) Services PMI (1) Sovereign Bonds (2) Sovereign Debt (4) Spain (4) Sterling (1) Sweden (2) Technials (1) Technicals (64) TICS (1) Total Social Financing (6) Trade (10) TSF (4) Turkey (1) UK (18) Ukraine (1) Unemployment (8) US (35) USD (9) Vietnam (1) Wages (12)

In the Media