Globally, the Google mobility and economic activity indices haven’t budged much over the past week. That’s a good thing as they’ve sustained the pickup seen in late November, defying the rebound in Covid infection rates we’ve seen in several places. This also takes us through the noise of US Thanksgiving.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
There has been a strong pick up in the DM mobility indices over the past week, the US rebounding over the Thanksgiving period while the easing of restrictions in Europe have boosted mobility and economic activity there – the most notable improvement being in France. Trends elsewhere remain similar, with the exception of Korea which has seen a continued deterioration amid a “third wave” there and tighter restrictions, which continue to be added to.
Chinese credit growth rebounded after the weaker October numbers. Yuan loans came in at CHY1,430bn while total social financing hit CNY2,130bn. Money supply also ticked up a touch, M3 at 10.7% from 10.5%. Although outstanding loan growth eased a touch to 12.8% from 12.9% the monthly rise in TSF still exceeds the increase we saw last year, maintaining the leveraging trend we’ve seen since Covid hit. Indeed, ytd overall debt measured by the data has risen by 26% of GDP to 280%.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
China recorded a further reserves build during November, total holdings rising by US$50.51bn to US$3,718bn. Nearly half of the increase can be accounted for by FX effects, specifically the effect of a weakening of the dollar compared to the other components of the reserves basket.
November Non-farm payrolls number came in at +245k (mkt +469k), bringing the 3m average down to +5227k. Private sector payrolls were a little better again at +344k but there is a sequential slowdown happening there too. Manufacturing payrolls grew by 27k while we saw another month of government job losses, -99k, the third consecutive drop. Revisions overall were down a bit, Oct NFP revised down to 610k vs. the 638k initially reported.
The Google mobility indicators show a further decline in both mobility and economic activity over the past week. The dip perhaps overstates the scale of the drop with US Thanksgiving holiday (which generated a bump in activity going into the holiday, and dip during and after) combining with tougher localised restrictions there. The story in Europe was better.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
