Google activity data through to 25th September looking a little softer. There are some tentative signs that economic activity is starting to slow in certain places, although by and large it’s outperforming mobility by a margin. Europe was broadly softer compared to the prior period, with the exception of the UK, which was actually up a little bit. But don’t expect that to last amid fuel disruptions which will enter the data next week.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
Google activity data through to 17th remains positive, with none of the anxiety present in markets transmitting into the real economy while all the fuss about the Delta variant also seem to be having minimal impact in the real world – a function of the hugely successful vaccine programmes that continues to rollout globally and has reached effectively full coverage in nearly all of the major economies.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
Google activity data through to 10th September shows a continuing pick-up in activity, underpinned by a continuing rise in mobility. Again, leading the drive higher has been Europe, notably Germany and Spain, but France, Italy and the UK also registered decent improvements. The bounce over the last couple of weeks is really a function of the ending of the summer holidays and start of the new school year. But economic activity is also looking fairly solid too.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
Another relatively solid month on the credit side. China’s August new yuan loans came in at CNY1.22trn vs. the CNY1.3trn median forecast but total social financing hit CNY2.96trn (mkt 2.75trn) amid a rebound in corporate bond issuance and solid local government financing numbers. Money supply meanwhile looks soft, M2 at 8.1% (mkt 8.4%) and M1 slowing to 4.2%, the weakest reading since February last year.
Google activity data through to 3rd September providing some early insight into the post-summer mood, with activity pushing higher again. Only three of our country group saw declines in activity over the past week and in all cases the decline was mild.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
Labour market growth slowed a little more than expected in August, amid some disruption to the services recovery from the Delta strain. But there were still +235k jobs added (mkt +750k) and we saw upward revisions to prior months, so the net impact was still positive, leading to a further decline in the unemployment rate to 5.2% from 5.4% and the U6 rate dropped down to 8.8% from 9.2%. The participation unchanged at 61.7%. Govt payrolls shrank a little after recent strong gains (-8k) but manufacturing continued to grow (+37k). Weekly hours were 34.7 from a downward pay revised 34.7, which by itself remains elevated from its pre-pandemic range.
Global Vaccinations and Economic Disruption. Delta continues to weigh on both supply and demand globally. Even high vaccinated economies seem…
Google activity data through to 27th August showing some stabilisation. The overall picture does not look too dissimilar to last summer when economies were operating relatively normally between the first and second waves. The picture for economic activity remains more positive than for overall mobility, as travelling habits and restrictions in some places continue to crimp that side of things. But as we’ve seen this year that hasn’t stopped the overall economic recovery from continuing.
