Independent Strategy

Macro Matters

November 2021

Independent Strategy Blog: Macro Matters

The Google mobility data, through to 7th October, suggests activity has taken a bit of a stumble, with only two of our sample group (the UK and Australia) showing any improvement over the past week.  The standout decliner was again Russia again, which is in something of a localised freefall at the moment.  But we’d downplay the weakness seen in the rest of Europe, the last week of October being a seasonal weak spot due to mid-term school breaks (note the data is not adjusted) and, like the UK the week before, we should see a bounce in the next update.  If we don’t then worry, but not until then.

October has delivered a more robust payrolls report, non-farm employment rising 531k (mkt 450k) while private sector jobs growth hit 604k (mkt 400k).  Manufacturing payrolls were particularly strong, with a 60k gain while government jobs dropped for a third consecutive month, -73k.  The revisions were also strong (September revised up from 194k to 312k and August was also revised higher.  The average monthly revision is now running at 68k for the past 12-months.

The updated Google activity data, through to 31st October, remains encouraging. Bar Russia the picture improved across our pool versus the prior week with Mexico, Germany and India leading the pack. In terms of the breakdowns we saw a solid increase in economic activity, while mobility dipped or was flat. This was particularly visible in Europe and is partly seasonal with mid-term school breaks leading to a dip in mobility in some places. EM trends seem to be generally better than DMs, bar Russia. That is partially due to the persistent stagnation in the US indices, which damper the overall DM storm, Europe and DM Asia all looking solid.

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