Independent Strategy
Independent Strategy: David Roche

David Roche, President and Global Strategist

DAVID ROCHE, President and Global Strategist at Independent Strategy which he founded in 1994. Well known for his original and provocative ideas, he was the first to move away from strategy as parochial country allocation and to focus on investment themes, based on fundamental long-term analysis, backed up by strongly held convictions.

Posts by David Roche

Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 12th May, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 11: Outlook for global trade

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris discuss the outlook for global trade and the impact of vaccination rates.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:

Analysing the weekly vaccinations data some things stand out:

  1. Daily infections are falling everywhere except in South Asia (+18% on the week to 384k/day).
  2. EU daily infections are down 19% for last week (vs. previous seven days).
  3. Global vaccinations are up 14% on the week. Some signs of vaccine fatigue in the US (+8%) & UK (+6%).
  4. The EU crossed (what I think is a critical) threshold of 30 vaccinations per 100 population with 33. Share of the population with 1 shot or more is 24% up from 21%.

Attached are the vaccination figures for major areas. Global vaccinations rose 14.5% on the week. The EU is now at 25 (up from 21 last week) shots per 100 people — getting closer to the 30 level that may be the threshold at which vaccines may start to limit transmission. But still only 18% of the population has had at least one shot.  Still way behind the UK, US, Israel etc on both measures. But EU has faster vaccination rate, so the gap should close in about 6 weeks on shots per 100 pop basis.

Vaccinations rose 15% for the week to April 11. But.... What matters going forward for markets in the vaccination data is that the EU has reached a 20% vaccination rate (defined as % of population to receive at least one shot).  The rate at which there seems to be a market decline in infections is 30%. At current vaccination rates the EU will get there in 4 weeks and will approach the current UK and US rates in 8 weeks.

Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 12th April, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 7: The post-pandemic outlook

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris discuss prospects for the post-pandemic economy.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 1st April, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 6: The Rhino, the rainforest, the carrot and the stick

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris are joined by Nick Kennedy to discuss how the only way to preserve our planet is to unlock the real economic value of our rapidly-eroding ecosystems and financially incentivise the required change.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 23rd March, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 5: What Happens Next (Optimism)

Carolyn Wright discusses with David Roche and Richard Harris the outlook for the post-Covid world, what will policy makers do as things normalise and what does that imply for investors?

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 19th March, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 4: Covid-19 vaccines

Carolyn Wright discusses with David Roche and Richard Harris Covid-19 vaccines, their rollout and the implications — politically, social and economic.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 5th March, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 2: Digital Assets

Carolyn Wright discusses with David Roche and Richard Harris Digital assets and what opportunities they present.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts – and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is – and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer – back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 25th February, 2021Redline Money Mixdown – Episode 1: The Post-Pandemic Economy

Carolyn Wright  discusses with David Roche and Richard Harris the outlook for the post-Pandemic economy.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts – and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is – and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer – back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:

Vaccinations have continued to rise exponentially up 50% between Jan 17 and Jan 23 from 40.6mn to 61.1mn.  2% of Europe's population (UK 9.3%) and 5.8% of the US's have received one vaccine dose.  For Asia the figure is 0.5% and China 1.04%. The number of fully vaccinated people has risen globally from 2.7mn to 4.9mn.  In Europe the % of the population fully vaccinated is 0.11% (UK 0.69%) and in the US 0.84%.

Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 6th January, 2021Quantum Economics — Chapter 2

This report follows up on our previous piece on “Quantum Economics”, delving into the more practical implications of the impact of Quantum Mechanics on macroeconomics. David Roche examines how this thinking can be integrated into the investment process and what this might mean, more immediately, for assets.

You can find the report here:

https://www.instrategy.com/reports/quantum-economics-chapter-2-the-truth-to-tell/

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 15th December, 2020Quantum economics

David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how this, in turn, should impact our thinking and approach to both the economy and financial markets.

You can find the report here:

Quantum economics

 

Network:

The monetary mutualisation of Eurozone debt (or its sovereign risk) through the ECB is becoming more likely.  The fiscal monetisation of debt through the issue of Coronabonds is becoming less likely. Monetisation is feasible.  The arithmetic works.  If you add up all projected fiscal deficits in the Eurozone for this year, the total comes to almost exactly the fire power the ECB has approved.

China looks to have the Coronavirus (COVID-19) under control. The rate of daily infections has been on a clear downward trend since the start of the month, suggesting the initial measures to quarantine areas were largely effective. As knowledge and understanding improves, it seems highly unlikely this is a temporary lull, even if economic disruptions surrounding the outbreak become more prolonged.

Global

POST » 18th December, 2019 » , The Odd Thing About Populism

Does populism pose a risk to markets in 2019?  Yes! but not from the expected quarter. 2019 brought a surprise on the European front.  The support for traditional parties has been plummeting for a long time.  We call this the European souffle where support for the centre ground continues to cave over time.  Populist parties gained 20% or more of the vote in many national elections this year, thought there were signs of their vote stabilising in the most recent polls.

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