Independent Strategy
Independent Strategy: David Roche

David Roche, President and Global Strategist

DAVID ROCHE, President and Global Strategist at Independent Strategy which he founded in 1994. Well known for his original and provocative ideas, he was the first to move away from strategy as parochial country allocation and to focus on investment themes, based on fundamental long-term analysis, backed up by strongly held convictions.

Posts by David Roche

Vaccinations have continued to rise exponentially up 50% between Jan 17 and Jan 23 from 40.6mn to 61.1mn.  2% of Europe's population (UK 9.3%) and 5.8% of the US's have received one vaccine dose.  For Asia the figure is 0.5% and China 1.04%. The number of fully vaccinated people has risen globally from 2.7mn to 4.9mn.  In Europe the % of the population fully vaccinated is 0.11% (UK 0.69%) and in the US 0.84%.

Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 15th December, 2020Quantum economics

David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how this, in turn, should impact our thinking and approach to both the economy and financial markets.

You can find the report here:

Quantum economics



The monetary mutualisation of Eurozone debt (or its sovereign risk) through the ECB is becoming more likely.  The fiscal monetisation of debt through the issue of Coronabonds is becoming less likely. Monetisation is feasible.  The arithmetic works.  If you add up all projected fiscal deficits in the Eurozone for this year, the total comes to almost exactly the fire power the ECB has approved.

China looks to have the Coronavirus (COVID-19) under control. The rate of daily infections has been on a clear downward trend since the start of the month, suggesting the initial measures to quarantine areas were largely effective. As knowledge and understanding improves, it seems highly unlikely this is a temporary lull, even if economic disruptions surrounding the outbreak become more prolonged.


POST » 18th December, 2019 » , The Odd Thing About Populism

Does populism pose a risk to markets in 2019?  Yes! but not from the expected quarter. 2019 brought a surprise on the European front.  The support for traditional parties has been plummeting for a long time.  We call this the European souffle where support for the centre ground continues to cave over time.  Populist parties gained 20% or more of the vote in many national elections this year, thought there were signs of their vote stabilising in the most recent polls.

Independent Strategy Books

BOOKSDeath of Democracy

Death of Democracy
By David Roche, James Lister-Cheese and Nick Kennedy

Is democracy in the 21st century dying? Will it become a rare beast in an autocratic world full of old people, robots and AI? There are certainly signs that this will happen.

Independent Strategy Books

BOOKSDemocrisis Re-examined

Democrisis Re-examined
David Roche, Bob McKee and Nick Kennedy

Democrisis re-examined. An update on our 2012 hypothesis, reflecting on what more debt and more crises means for the global economy and the outlook for democracy.

Independent Strategy Books


by David Roche and Bob McKee

Democracy caused the debt crisis. Will it survive it? The question is whether new global leaders will stimulate the democratic model.

Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 9th January, 2012Roche Says China Growth May Fall to 4% on Bank Crisis

Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- David Roche, president of Independent Strategy and a former Morgan Stanley global strategist, talks about the outlook for the European debt crisis, and its impact on emerging stock and commodity markets. Roche speaks with Rishaad Salamat and Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "Asia Edge."
Network: Bloomberg Television
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 19th September, 2011Roche Says U.S. on Same Fiscal Trajectory as Greece

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- David Roche, president of Independent Strategy and a former Morgan Stanley global strategist, talks about the outlook for U.S. and Greece debt problems and his investment strategy. Roche speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "Asia Edge."
Network: Bloomberg Television
Independent Strategy Books

BOOKSSovereign DisCredit!

Sovereign DisCredit!
By David Roche and Bob McKee

We’ve had the credit crunch and afterwards a deep economic recession. Now get ready for a sovereign debt crisis after the biggest rise in government debt globally since world war two.


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