Independent Strategy
Independent Strategy: David Roche

David Roche, President and Global Strategist

DAVID ROCHE, President and Global Strategist at Independent Strategy which he founded in 1994. Well known for his original and provocative ideas, he was the first to move away from strategy as parochial country allocation and to focus on investment themes, based on fundamental long-term analysis, backed up by strongly held convictions.

Posts by David Roche

Covid-19 Database Weekly Update: Vaccinations, Daily Infections, Fatalities and Active Cases for regions and countries covering the last 7 days, up to 30 June 2021. Key investor relevance: 

  1. The data shows a sharp split between developing countries, doing better, and developed countries still mired in the pandemic, but now with rising vaccinations from a low base
  2. The major risk is that the Delta variant spreads in developed countries that have opened up.  Of course, there is now a greater tolerance for “just living with acceptable levels of Covid-19”.  But there are limits.

Total global vaccinations rose 11.8% or by 260mn – roughly stable on the week.  Vaccinations per 100 of the population is now above the critical 30 level in all regions except South Asia (India 20), Russia (24) and Africa (3).  Share of population fully vaccinated: world 10%, EU 24%, US 45%, UK 46%, South America 11%, Asia (ex China, which does not report) 7.9%.

Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 14th June, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 14: European investment, reform and the environment

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris discuss European investment plans (Next Generation EU), reform and the environment.  See our report The dark horse gallops (https://www.instrategy.com/reports/the-dark-horse-gallops/).

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 4th June, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 13: Tipping point for the dollar

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris discuss whether we are at the tipping point for the dollar and the outlook for the renminbi.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 12th May, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 11: Outlook for global trade

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris discuss the outlook for global trade and the impact of vaccination rates.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:

Analysing the weekly vaccinations data some things stand out:

  1. Daily infections are falling everywhere except in South Asia (+18% on the week to 384k/day).
  2. EU daily infections are down 19% for last week (vs. previous seven days).
  3. Global vaccinations are up 14% on the week. Some signs of vaccine fatigue in the US (+8%) & UK (+6%).
  4. The EU crossed (what I think is a critical) threshold of 30 vaccinations per 100 population with 33. Share of the population with 1 shot or more is 24% up from 21%.

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