The consensus is universally bearish on European equities. After 15 years of underperformance, it wouldn’t take much to change perceptions.…
Posts by Independent Strategy
The new doctrine of self-exoneration and supply-side inflation guilt means that central bankers will not raise rates any more and…
The victory of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV) in this week’s Netherlands election follows a familiar pattern. Electorates across Europe…
The theology of central bank policy is shifting towards a relatively softer monetary policy stance that targets short-term inflation expectations.…
In the world of the grayzone alliances, international trade will not be an engine of growth. And no longer will…
Confidence in China isn’t coming back
Network: CNBC Asia Squawkbox
The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate unchanged. This is bullish for markets as the Fed appears more confident…
Two of our major asset positions remain short JGBs and long yen. It’s a constant humiliation by one or the…
Our forecast has been for a long war of attrition with Ukraine holding its own and wearing down the Russians.…
It is unwise to bet your portfolio on absolutes. The Middle East contagion may be containable as we believe. But…
David Roche does not think Iran will enter the mideast war, but he lays out scenarios if the conflict were to expand
Network: CNBC Asia Street Signs
The US could slip into recession next year because the Fed seem determined to keep rates high for too long
Network: CNBC Asia Street Signs
The election results are a resounding democratic success for the opposition Civic Coalition (KO) with voter participation rates up 13…
Buying EU natural gas is a good asset to provide insurance against a wider escalation in the war between Israel…
War inside Gaza is now inevitable. The spillovers depend on Israel’s actions. The wider the ripples, the greater the global…
Freedom, democracy and prosperity are inextricably linked. In our grayzone world of democratic and autocratic alliances, the victory of the…
The market reaction to this war will be determined by where Israel sets its perimeter security fence. The USD, as…
Nagorno-Karabakh is an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijani territory. It has been airbrushed from history by Azerbaijan in just a week.…
From an internationalist perspective, the US Congress budget deal is bad news. It is not critical to ensure support for…
China in the next decade
Network: Bloomberg TV
