War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…
Posts by Independent Strategy
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…
Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…
If all country pandemics were the same then we’d have a good understanding as to how this current global crisis…
The economic shock from Covid-19 is being underestimated. This is natural when the immediate priority is safeguarding human life. This…
Having weighed all the evidence, our advice to clients is not to second-guess the pandemic until there is much clearer…
The number of COVID-19 coronavirus cases in the US are likely to be under-reported, as the country doesn’t have enough testing kits
Network: RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk
Covid-19 hits economic activity on a number of levels. This compounds its impact over both the short- and longer-term. It…
We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…
Markets are likely to remain volatile as the lag between actual COVID-19 infections and the reporting of cases continues to…
We have cut our long US dollar position versus the euro, taking us neutral. We expect oversold equity markets to…
Environmentalism and sustainability are unstoppable forces. But some investors remain slow to embrace the change. Thus far most effort has…
Don’t expect supply chains in China to return to normal for at least three quarters
Network: RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk
Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…
The likely economic and financial market damage caused by the Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is underestimated. We remain short Thai baht and…
The Wuhan Coronavirus has the potential to damage asset prices like SARS did. We would need greater evidence that it…
Trump’s ‘Phase 1’ trade deal isn’t the concrete base to build the 2020s on. It’s a short-term deal that fits…
The relief measures announced by HK CE Carrie Lam amount to 0.3% of GDP and will make little difference to the economy
Network: RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk
There is much to worry about in India. The slowdown in growth might have coincided with global weakness, but the…
The outcome of Saturday’s Taiwanese presidential election was no great surprise. It reinforces the problems China and President Xi face…
