The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities.…
Posts by Independent Strategy
Writing a year or more ago when we floated the idea of the superiority of techno-autocracies over liberal democracies, it…
It is something of a consensus view that equities are an inflation hedge. But this is only true if demand…
The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…
Possible US sanctions will not have a major impact on Hong Kong’s economy but uncertainties surrounding the national security law could curtail the city’s attractiveness
Network: RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk
We are cutting our long US dollar positions. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 99 to 97 in a…
Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will…
The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as…
The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…
In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…
A Hong Kong (HK) political crisis is brewing beyond Covid. There are two elements. First, Hong Kong is a perfect…
The measures being introduced by the US to control the export of technology to China have four qualities. They can…
The immediate hit from Covid-19 is to society and to economic welfare. A significant longer-term issue will be how this…
We have set out our store a long time ago as regards the post Covid-19 macro setting and asset allocation:…
Even in times of great uncertainty, obvious things still happen. Shuttering much of the global economy crushed demand. That was…
It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…
The rates of Covid-19 new daily infections are starting to roll over. Over Easter globally there were around 70k new…
War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…
Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…
