Sovereign bond issuance this year will not be a factor in determining bond prices. It’s the demand side that will…
Posts by Independent Strategy
This report looks beyond the cyclical to the secular and poses the question: “Is this the start of the post-growth…
The Energy Crisis – the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end
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We are long oil. The oil price is likely to get to USD120/bbl by mid-2023 and average USD140 bbl in…
The liberal democracies are not arming Ukraine to win this war outright. The most likely outcome is a long war…
Musical Chairs in Moscow – the epic short tenure of Russian Generals
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Outlook 2023
Network: CNBC Class
The latest planned shipment of weapons to Ukraine does not change the equation that we are not arming Kyiv to…
Panacea or plaster?
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Our key positions to start 2023 are: Long JPY, oil and agro commodities. Short US treasuries and JGBs. Selective on…
David Roche says we’re not near a bull market
Network: CNBC Squawk Box Europe
New World Order 2 + N
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Russia’s war in Ukraine – why President Zelensky’s visit to Washington failed
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It is unlikely this visit will deliver what is needed. The offensive weapons Ukraine needs to win this war are…
There are two dumb deals, but important ones: 1) the BoJ decision to raise the target band for JGB yields…
The Fed, the ECB, and the BoE all increased their policy interest rates by 50bp. That was as expected. Relative…
China’s zero-Covid policy has reached its limits. The intention is gradually to relax restrictions while efforts to improve vaccination rates,…
Geopolitics redefined – price caps and nation states
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Wandering through Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, Russia, the EU and the future: reconstruction for Ukraine; Saudi-China alliance; China’s COVID…
The G7+Australia price cap on Russian oil shipments at $60/bbl is a joke. It leaves Russia with almost unchanged revenues.
