Our short sterling position is now closed. GBP has hit our USD1.05 target. Now it is about 3c above that…
Posts by Independent Strategy
Giorgia Meloni scored a spectacular electoral victory in Italy. Italians have the first directly elected government in a decade with…
The Japanese authorities have intervened to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. This intervention may squeeze…
There are two kinds of inflation. One comes from imported inflation. The other happens when inflation spreads to domestic sectors.…
Following a surge in violent crime, Sweden has elected a new rightist government. This shift will impose stricter limits on…
Having removed our longstanding longs in grains in July (Food, the war commodity, 14 July 2022) after the agreement between…
Anything that is bad for Putin’s Russia is good for the rest of us. This is likely to be the…
At yesterday’s monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked all three of its policy rates (including the deposit…
This report is about reconciling the historical predictors of doom with the concept of what could go right. It introduces…
Germany’s SPD-Green-FDP coalition has announced a new support package for beleaguered households and SMEs struggling with surging energy prices. The…
It is unlikely the EU will run out of gas in winter. It means Putin’s stranglehold on EU energy is…
China’s debt problems persist and are increasingly evident in the housing market. While this is unlikely to lead to immediate…
We reduced our longs in grains last month following the agreement between Russia and Ukraine to allow the shipment of…
Against the consensus, we reckon that the EU may well have enough gas supply over the coming winter and beyond…
China is currently de facto blockading Taiwan. Our reading is that the PLA announcement of further manoeuvres in Bohai and…
We no longer recommend being short Italian or other southern Eurozone government bonds.
The Hong Kong dollar peg value against the US dollar is now near its weakest point. This has led some…
Russia plans to cut gas supply to the EU through NordStream 1 (NS1) back to 20% tomorrow. This is sooner…
It is unlikely that the ECB’s new policy tool, TPI (or Transmission Protection Instrument), will change the fate of the…
Italy’s PM Mario Draghi is resigning after losing the support of parties in the governing coalition. This will hit Italian…
