The world economy is conflicted by variables that will slow growth and headline inflation. But not enough to make bonds…
Posts by Independent Strategy
By any measure, grain and oilseed supplies are going to be justifiably tight for at least another year, particularly if…
There are three spectres of recession stalking the globe. Fed tightening; Zero-Covid disruption; and the war in Ukraine. All three…
The dialogue about Ukraine is set to widen to include the issue of economic resources and how they will be…
We went short the renminbi (RMB) on 12 December 2021. At the time, the RMB traded at around USD6.35. For…
The shifting goals of war will not produce stability, reduced sanctions or Russian withdrawals. They will produce a long drawn-out…
This report discusses the four key variables that lead us to be: 1.Long agricultural commodities, gold and strategic metals; 2.Long…
The first round of the French presidential elections takes place on Sunday. Incumbent Macron will be the leader, with Marine…
Warcession is not like stagflation. This report analyses the difference. Warcession is most likely to hit the EU first and…
The discovery of Russian army atrocities in Ukraine lifts us to a new plane of war and for longer. We…
Diminishing the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will be gradual. Autocracies will accelerate their efforts to escape…
There has been no shift in our view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since April last year (see our…
While the EU Council of Ministers meeting is ongoing, what we know so far from the G7/NATO and EU response…
Chart pack and analysis attached.
In our recent piece (New world (dis)order) we mapped a post-conflict global economy which had a bigger state sector, low…
The Fed delivered as expected and promised six 25bps hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year. There was only…
Chart pack and analysis attached.
What will the post-conflict world look like? What lies beyond the immediate “Warcession” discussed yesterday? This short piece describes the…
The EU authorities are in denial. This is bad for equities, north-south EU bond spreads, high-yield bonds and the euro.…
Chart pack and analysis attached.
