Independent Strategy

Posts by Nick Kennedy

Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 6th May, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 10: The new cold war with China

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris discuss the dynamics of the new cold war with China.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 29th April, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 9: Climate promises, all smoke?

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris are joined by Nick Kennedy to discuss Earth Day and the recent climate summit and what these promises mean.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:
Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 26th April, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 8: The US economy

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris discuss where the US economy is and the implications of the ongoing fiscal expansion.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:

During lockdown people shopped online.  Not all needs could be met online.  So pent up saving grew to 4-8% of GDP most places.  Now it is expected some of the pent-up savings will be spent as Pandemic declines in rich countries.  It may be more in the EU than expected.  Because it is harder to shop online in the EU.  So pent up demand may be greater.

Post-Easter recovery has gathered pace with a substantial improvement in European mobility and economic activity over the past week (to 17th April).  The rebound was fairly even across Germany and Italy, with a more modest improvement in Spain, although that comes from a substantially better starting position.  France also saw a pick up in activity, but given higher Covid case loads this was modest in comparison.  And with the UK lockdowns easing France now carries the mantle of the weakest of our survey group, a position it looks set to retain for a while.

Easter drag having an impact across most markets, leading to a drop in overall global economic activity over the past week (to 10th April).  This seasonal drag is mixed up with tighter restrictions in many European countries in reaction to the more recent increase in Covid cases and slower rollouts of vaccines.  But comparing the improving countries with the laggards still gives us some insights as to the severity of the drop here, with around half the decline in France Germany and Italy appearing to be a function of Easter, with the rest the virus.

US

POST » 13th April, 2021 » Macro Data — US March CPI

March surprised mildly to the upside of consensus expectations, headline CPI hitting 2.6% yoy following a 0.6% mom increase.  The main driver was the transport component (i.e. gasoline prices).  These went from a net drag of -0.39%pts last year to a +0.96%pt driver of the yoy rate this time round, so a net swing of 1.35%pts, or half of overall yoy CPI rate.

Independent Strategy Media

MEDIA » 1st April, 2021Redline Money Mixdown — Episode 6: The Rhino, the rainforest, the carrot and the stick

Carolyn Wright, David Roche and Richard Harris are joined by Nick Kennedy to discuss how the only way to preserve our planet is to unlock the real economic value of our rapidly-eroding ecosystems and financially incentivise the required change.

RedLine Money takes the expertise of David Roche and Richard Harris as they talk markets, prices, bubbles, and busts — and some even more interesting topics!

Where is your Red Line?  No losses?  Make as much as inflation?  Or make as much money as you can?  How much pain can you take? Investors need to find out what their red line is — and how it moves.  The RedLine Money podcast can help you find it.

David and Richard have nearly a century between them of searching for the Red Line in bull markets and bear.  Hear what the crowd isn’t saying about current markets and price moves.  In the long term, and even longer — back to the Egyptians.  See markets as an engineering system, a biological organism, or as the behaviour of sub-atomic particles.  You don’t get this from anywhere else.  You know it makes sense.

David Roche, Independent Strategy Ltd

Richard Harris, Port Shelter Investment Management

Carolyn Wright (moderator)

RedLine Money is produced weekly in Hong Kong.

Music by TimMoor from Pixabay

Network:

Despite the resurgence of Covid cases in certain places, the global economic recovery remains on track. That’s based on Google’s fast track data (through to March 27th).  Europe, which suffered last week, was on the up again with improvements in Germany, France and Spain.  The dip in Italy also looks to have based out, helped by a pick-up in the last couple of days.  The UK meanwhile continues on its improving streak.

The latest batch of Google mobility data, which take us up to 13th March, hints at a slight slowdown in the rate of improvement, amid some setbacks in some of the individual countries we survey.  But this looks like ebb and flow and doesn’t detract from the underlying trend, which remains one of improvement.

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