Independent Strategy

Macro Matters

Politics Category

Independent Strategy Blog: Macro Matters

US Impeachment process looks likely to go on for a little longer than expected.  Pelosi’s initial hope that things could be wrapped up by Christmas, so the Democrats could start the new year on a clean slate, focused on the Presidential primaries and campaign looks hopeful now.  Pelosi has always felt the impeachment process was always driven by the left wingers in the party and never had a credible chance of success.  By delaying the process, it prevents the House from pursuing more important business such as delivering on the campaign promises of the mid-terms.

UK Russia dossier a bit of a non-event.  Attracted some media attention but sources suggest that the content is largely benign.  The main criticisms contained within was that the UK was ill-equipped to deal with this type of interference, largely because they had not expected it.  Seems a little surprising that the PM would veto publication given the content.  There is nothing that screams conspiracy.

The UK election campaign will be one of two strategies.  The Tories will build their case around their Brexit deal while Labour will try and create a narrative around the future for Britain over the next five years (trying to move beyond their promise to renegotiate and offer the deal to the electorate via a second referendum which is likely to be on the manifesto).

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