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Google activity data through to 5 December continues to paint a solid picture of the recovery, with no sign that the appearance of the Omicron variant is restraining either mobility or economic activity.  Most of our sample saw improvements week-on-week, led by US activity which reverted to trend post-Thanksgiving.  Only Russia and South Korea saw a dip, moving our total global measure back to its highs.

Google mobility figures through to 28^th October looked solid.  While we’ve seen rising Covid cases in Europe the impact on mobility and economic activity has been fairly well contained to date.  Indeed, Germany, France and Spain recorded improvements week on week while Italy saw a very mild dip.  The largest drop was recorded in the US but this is merely an effect of the Thanksgiving holiday which are not adjusted for in the raw data.  The drop was comparable to the decline we saw in this period last year. EMs all looking good.

The Google mobility data, through to 7^th October, suggests activity has taken a bit of a stumble, with only two of our sample group (the UK and Australia) showing any improvement over the past week.  The standout decliner was again Russia again, which is in something of a localised freefall at the moment.  But we’d downplay the weakness seen in the rest of Europe, the last week of October being a seasonal weak spot due to mid-term school breaks (note the data is not adjusted) and, like the UK the week before, we should see a bounce in the next update.  If we don’t then worry, but not until then.

The updated Google activity data, through to 9^th October, continues to paint a picture of general resilience.  Even in places like the UK, which have been subjected to disruptions (specifically fuel shortages) have held up, with barely a blip in the mobility numbers nor overall economic activity.  Indeed, the biggest decliner across Europe over the past week has been Germany, and really that is relatively mild and comes off very strong levels.  Italy, Spain and France all ticked down too.  At the top end of the scale we saw further improvements in EMs, led by India and Brazil while Japan also continues to recover from its summer soft patch.  The US is as ever static, having been that way since late spring really.

Google activity data through to 25^th September looking a little softer.  There are some tentative signs that economic activity is starting to slow in certain places, although by and large it’s outperforming mobility by a margin.  Europe was broadly softer compared to the prior period, with the exception of the UK, which was actually up a little bit.  But don’t expect that to last amid fuel disruptions which will enter the data next week.

Google activity data through to 17th remains positive, with none of the anxiety present in markets transmitting into the real economy while all the fuss about the Delta variant also seem to be having minimal impact in the real world – a function of the hugely successful vaccine programmes that continues to rollout globally and has reached effectively full coverage in nearly all of the major economies.

Google activity data through to 10^th September shows a continuing pick-up in activity, underpinned by a continuing rise in mobility.  Again, leading the drive higher has been Europe, notably Germany and Spain, but France, Italy and the UK also registered decent improvements.  The bounce over the last couple of weeks is really a function of the ending of the summer holidays and start of the new school year.  But economic activity is also looking fairly solid too.

Google activity data through to 3^rd September providing some early insight into the post-summer mood, with activity pushing higher again.  Only three of our country group saw declines in activity over the past week and in all cases the decline was mild.

Google activity data through to 27^th August showing some stabilisation.  The overall picture does not look too dissimilar to last summer when economies were operating relatively normally between the first and second waves.  The picture for economic activity remains more positive than for overall mobility, as travelling habits and restrictions in some places continue to crimp that side of things.  But as we’ve seen this year that hasn’t stopped the overall economic recovery from continuing.

Google activity data through to 31^st July continues to paint a broad picture of resilience, with limited impact from the increase in Covid cases.  Even in the economies in our group that have been most impacted by the Delta surge, the effect on activity has been pretty limited and economic activity continues to improve.