Chart pack and analysis attached.
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Global daily new infections increased 7% (after 8%) in the latest 7 days. Total active cases rose by 8% for the second week. These are not the exponential increases one would expect if Delta were going to blow the top off the lid of the global economy. The drivers were developed economies (EU, US and Japan) and SE Asia. Global fatalities per day fell from 10k to 9k.
Amid the ongoing spread of the Delta variant the Google activity data through to 24th July is showing a fairly clear picture as to where the damage is being done. And its perhaps not much of a surprise to see that the places where vaccine rollout has been most efficient are faring rather better than in the countries where efforts have been rather more pedestrian.
Covid-19 Database Weekly Update: Vaccinations, Daily Infections, Fatalities, Active Cases, Hospitalisations for regions and countries covering last week and until 27 July for vaccinations.
The Google activity data through to 17th July continues to support the recovery thesis, with global activity remaining near its recent peaks and economic activity holding above its pre-pandemic starting point (+3pts). Mobility meanwhile has eased a little bit, remaining 17pts below where it stood pre-Covid.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
Vaccinations Total global vaccinations administered rose 6% (down from a growth rate of 7% in the prior period), an increase of 210mn. The rate of increase fell everywhere in both developed and developing economies, with the exception of Southeast Asia.
The Google activity data through to 10th July throwing up nothing to alter the underlying view that the economic recovery continues to move ahead. Global activity is trundling along near recent highs. That is important given the recent uptick in Covid cases as the Delta variant continues to spread – largely we would stress among unvaccinated groups, which also happen to be in most cases those that are unlikely to suffer from the more severe symptoms that forced lockdowns earlier in the Pandemic.
Covid-19 Database Weekly Update: Vaccinations, Daily Infections, Fatalities, Active Cases, Hospitalisations for regions and countries covering the last 7 days…
Covid-19 Database Weekly Update: Vaccinations, Daily Infections, Fatalities, Active Cases, Hospitalisations for regions and countries covering the last 7 days…
Looking at the Google activity data through to 26th June it looks as if there are some early signs that the recent pick up in infections/increase in risk perceptions has started to eat into activity a little. But even in places where infection rates have risen fairly rapidly – the UK for example – the corresponding drop off in activity has been mild.
Covid-19 Database Weekly Update: Vaccinations, Daily Infections, Fatalities and Active Cases for regions and countries covering the last 7 days, up to 30 June 2021. Key investor relevance:
- The data shows a sharp split between developing countries, doing better, and developed countries still mired in the pandemic, but now with rising vaccinations from a low base
- The major risk is that the Delta variant spreads in developed countries that have opened up. Of course, there is now a greater tolerance for “just living with acceptable levels of Covid-19”. But there are limits.
Total global vaccinations rose 11.8% or by 260mn – roughly stable on the week. Vaccinations per 100 of the population is now above the critical 30 level in all regions except South Asia (India 20), Russia (24) and Africa (3). Share of population fully vaccinated: world 10%, EU 24%, US 45%, UK 46%, South America 11%, Asia (ex China, which does not report) 7.9%.
Google mobility indices show a further and broad based improvement in the week to June 12th. Global economic has all but recouped its post-Covid losses, but mobility is still some distance behind (a deficit of ~17% based on the data), although the trend here remains an improving one too.
Covid-19 Database Weekly Update: Vaccinations, Daily Infections, Fatalities and Active Cases for regions and countries covering the last 7 days up to Sunday, June 14, 2021
Working through the latest Google mobility update (through to 5th June) you get an increasing sense of normality. Although most places are still showing activity levels below where they were pre-pandemic, the gap looks pretty small and momentum remains strong. Of our survey group four recorded w/w declines but really this is part of the ebb and flow rather than anything more sinister going on. Even India has managed to move higher as the recent Covid wave there continues to abate.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
The latest Google mobility update (through to 29th May) continues to show strong progress towards normalisation of the global economy. Of our survey group only three (23% of sample) recorded a w/w decline in activity and all of this was in places that shouldn’t really be a cause for concern. And the most notable victim of the virus (India) has finally managed to bounce. We also saw upticks in Japan, where an increase in cases had also worried.
Chart pack and analysis attached.
Vaccination update 31 May 2021 The data points to lessening of pandemic – not just in developed countries. This points…
