The latest Google mobility update (through to 29th May) continues to show strong progress towards normalisation of the global economy. Of our survey group only three (23% of sample) recorded a w/w decline in activity and all of this was in places that shouldn’t really be a cause for concern. And the most notable victim of the virus (India) has finally managed to bounce. We also saw upticks in Japan, where an increase in cases had also worried.
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The latest Google activity figures (through to 22nd May) continue to support the strong global recovery narrative with the latest improvement being driven by ongoing gains in Europe. Indeed France and Germany led the increase in activity last week, with Italy, Spain and the UK also in our top group (alongside Russia). Mexico, Australia and the US recorded small gains too.
On a global basis the latest Google activity figures (to 15th May) show a further modest improvement in the recovery rate, maintaining the solid uptrend we’ve seen since the start of the year. Obviously we’ve seen setbacks in certain places, the most extreme case being India, but this hasn’t been enough to move the global needle.
Activity has pushed further ahead based on Google’s mobility update (to 8th May). And the adaptability of the economy is again evident with economic activity continuing to outpace the improvement in mobility.
Google’s mobility update (to 1st May) paints a bit more of a mixed picture of the immediate recovery, even if on a global basis the overall trend is still upward. Indeed, in our sample a majority of countries stepped back over the past week.
Google’s latest mobility update (to 24th April) continues to show a strong recovery, gains focused in developed markets where Covid infection rates have moderated and vaccine coverage continues to increase.
Post-Easter recovery has gathered pace with a substantial improvement in European mobility and economic activity over the past week (to 17th April). The rebound was fairly even across Germany and Italy, with a more modest improvement in Spain, although that comes from a substantially better starting position. France also saw a pick up in activity, but given higher Covid case loads this was modest in comparison. And with the UK lockdowns easing France now carries the mantle of the weakest of our survey group, a position it looks set to retain for a while.
Easter drag having an impact across most markets, leading to a drop in overall global economic activity over the past week (to 10th April). This seasonal drag is mixed up with tighter restrictions in many European countries in reaction to the more recent increase in Covid cases and slower rollouts of vaccines. But comparing the improving countries with the laggards still gives us some insights as to the severity of the drop here, with around half the decline in France Germany and Italy appearing to be a function of Easter, with the rest the virus.
Despite the resurgence of Covid cases in certain places, the global economic recovery remains on track. That’s based on Google’s fast track data (through to March 27th). Europe, which suffered last week, was on the up again with improvements in Germany, France and Spain. The dip in Italy also looks to have based out, helped by a pick-up in the last couple of days. The UK meanwhile continues on its improving streak.
Google’s fast track data has painted more of a mixed picture over the past week (to 20th March). For the most part the overall trend is still one of improvement, but fairly pronounced declines in a couple of countries in our sample has taken a toll and is rather concerning.
The latest batch of Google mobility data, which take us up to 13th March, hints at a slight slowdown in the rate of improvement, amid some setbacks in some of the individual countries we survey. But this looks like ebb and flow and doesn’t detract from the underlying trend, which remains one of improvement.
The improvements made in mobility and economic activity continues based of the latest batch of google mobility data. The series take us up to 6th March and based on that the recovery remains on the front foot, underpinned by expanding vaccine coverage and the resulting boost to confidence that has delivered as well as the overall decline in infection rates, even if that trend looks to have flatlined more immediately.
Based on Google mobility statistics we’re seeing a sustained improvement in activity now. This is only likely to gather speed as vaccine coverage continues to expand, restrictions ease, alongside the seasonal improvements one should expect upon the arrival of spring, and, with a bit of luck, some UV.
Google mobility data continues to paint an improving picture, with mobility and economic activity nudging higher again over the past week. And the breadth of improvement is encouraging too. There was a solid increase across Europe in particular, driven by Germany but France, Italy, Spain and the UK also moved positively. Developed Asia also fared well. There was a modest dip in Australia amid some short-term localised lockdowns, but the damage from pre-Covid levels is far milder here anyway.
The past week hasn’t really seen any substantial shifts in activity, even if it’s increasingly clear that we’re past the worst as Covid cases continue to decline globally and the first signs of the vaccine impact start to percolate into the data. In the overall rankings, it is the Europeans that remain the most depressed compared to pre-pandemic levels of activity, with the UK languishing at the bottom of that league. Germany and France took a step back based on the data, while there was a further mild improvement in Spain and Italy.
With the continued decline in new reported Covid cases globally, it is no surprise that we’ve started to see an improvement in overall activity levels. At least based on the Google data. Indeed, all but one of the countries in our sample recorded a week on week improvement. The worst was France and that was simply stable. Europe remains at the bottom of the pile in terms of overall activity, but the corner has certainly been turned and we’d expect to see this pick-up to extend and accelerate over the coming weeks.
Another week of relative stability as measures to contain the pandemic remained static in most places. More draconian restrictions in Europe leave the region at the bottom end of the spectrum while EMs and Asia rate far better.
Economic activity seems to be bedding down in the doldrums amid lockdowns and other varying restrictions on activity. Europe continues to suffer the most, although weak activity remains a broad phenomenon.
The noise of the holiday period might have overstated the extent of the decline in economic activity but there is no doubting that the backdrop remains very depressed. Lockdowns and other restrictions remain the driver of this, with Europe bearing the brunt of the hit. But high levels of Covid infection continues to dampen the economy even in places where efforts to tackle the virus are less draconian.
As we move into 2021, we are getting a clearer picture into the extent of the slowdown in economic activity that the resurgent Coronavirus has triggered. Although the Google mobility indices were already indicating a sharp deterioration, the scale of the decline reported through to the turn of the year was exaggerated by holiday effects, as we noted last time. Data through to the 8th of January, which was released yesterday, gives us a clearer picture of how things stand. And while it is not quite as bleak as over the Christmas and New Year period, the data still paints a fairly poor picture of global economic health.
