Google activity data through to 27th August showing some stabilisation. The overall picture does not look too dissimilar to last summer when economies were operating relatively normally between the first and second waves. The picture for economic activity remains more positive than for overall mobility, as travelling habits and restrictions in some places continue to crimp that side of things. But as we’ve seen this year that hasn’t stopped the overall economic recovery from continuing.
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Another month of strong payroll gain, the headline number showing a net gain of 943k jobs (mkt 870k) while revisions also shifted upward (a net 146k added for the past three months). 703k of the July gain came from private payrolls (mkt 700k). Manufacturing added 27k jobs and government 240k, accounting for all of the surprise. Labour participation edged up to 61.7% which left the unemployment rate at 5.7% (down from 5.9% but above the 5.4% median guess). Prime age participation (25-54) saw a further surge, for both male and female workers. This is a positive trend and reinforces our lack of concern for labour scarcity. It’s important to contrast this with the post-GFC period where prime participation continued to fall after the initial crisis.
Google activity data through to 31st July continues to paint a broad picture of resilience, with limited impact from the increase in Covid cases. Even in the economies in our group that have been most impacted by the Delta surge, the effect on activity has been pretty limited and economic activity continues to improve.
The headline Q2 GDP number looks like quite a big miss as +6.5% q/q ann. versus the +8.5% mkt median. And Q1 was revised down a touch too. But the underlying picture still looks pretty robust in reality. In fact, the bulk of the miss could be attributed to the ongoing disruptions that Covid continues to generate, specifically in terms of the further sharp decline we saw in inventories, which knocked 1.1% pts from that 6.5% rate. Government spending was also notably weak (its contribution knocking a further -0.3% pts off the headline), particularly government investment.
Amid the ongoing spread of the Delta variant the Google activity data through to 24th July is showing a fairly clear picture as to where the damage is being done. And its perhaps not much of a surprise to see that the places where vaccine rollout has been most efficient are faring rather better than in the countries where efforts have been rather more pedestrian.
The Google activity data through to 17th July continues to support the recovery thesis, with global activity remaining near its recent peaks and economic activity holding above its pre-pandemic starting point (+3pts). Mobility meanwhile has eased a little bit, remaining 17pts below where it stood pre-Covid.
The Google activity data through to 10th July throwing up nothing to alter the underlying view that the economic recovery continues to move ahead. Global activity is trundling along near recent highs. That is important given the recent uptick in Covid cases as the Delta variant continues to spread – largely we would stress among unvaccinated groups, which also happen to be in most cases those that are unlikely to suffer from the more severe symptoms that forced lockdowns earlier in the Pandemic.
Strong payroll gains with some additional impetus from upward revisions. Overall the economy added 850k jobs in June (mkt 700k) up from 583k in May (revised from 559k), of which 662k came from private payrolls (mkt 600k). Manufacturing added 28k jobs and government 188k. Labour participation unchanged at 61.6% and the unemployment rate actually ticked up to 5.9%, as job gains were netted off with an increase in the labour force. Note prime age participation (25-54) increased for both male and female workers. This is positive and should dampen worries about labour scarcity.
Looking at the Google activity data through to 26th June it looks as if there are some early signs that the recent pick up in infections/increase in risk perceptions has started to eat into activity a little. But even in places where infection rates have risen fairly rapidly – the UK for example – the corresponding drop off in activity has been mild.
Google mobility indices show a further and broad based improvement in the week to June 12th. Global economic has all but recouped its post-Covid losses, but mobility is still some distance behind (a deficit of ~17% based on the data), although the trend here remains an improving one too.
Working through the latest Google mobility update (through to 5th June) you get an increasing sense of normality. Although most places are still showing activity levels below where they were pre-pandemic, the gap looks pretty small and momentum remains strong. Of our survey group four recorded w/w declines but really this is part of the ebb and flow rather than anything more sinister going on. Even India has managed to move higher as the recent Covid wave there continues to abate.
While the US added 559k jobs in May according to the non-farm payrolls report, this marked another downside surprise for the series where the median estimate was up at 650k. There was a modest upward revision to the April numbers (278k vs. 266k initially reported) but that doesn’t move the needle. Private payrolls growth came in at 492k while manufacturing payrolls added 23k job and government 67k. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% from 6.1% but this was aided by a decline in participation (61.6% from 61.7%).
The latest Google mobility update (through to 29th May) continues to show strong progress towards normalisation of the global economy. Of our survey group only three (23% of sample) recorded a w/w decline in activity and all of this was in places that shouldn’t really be a cause for concern. And the most notable victim of the virus (India) has finally managed to bounce. We also saw upticks in Japan, where an increase in cases had also worried.
The latest Google activity figures (through to 22nd May) continue to support the strong global recovery narrative with the latest improvement being driven by ongoing gains in Europe. Indeed France and Germany led the increase in activity last week, with Italy, Spain and the UK also in our top group (alongside Russia). Mexico, Australia and the US recorded small gains too.
On a global basis the latest Google activity figures (to 15th May) show a further modest improvement in the recovery rate, maintaining the solid uptrend we’ve seen since the start of the year. Obviously we’ve seen setbacks in certain places, the most extreme case being India, but this hasn’t been enough to move the global needle.
Activity has pushed further ahead based on Google’s mobility update (to 8th May). And the adaptability of the economy is again evident with economic activity continuing to outpace the improvement in mobility.
The headline non-farm payrolls jobs figure surprised on the downside in April, with 266k jobs created versus the median forecast of 978k. And the March figure was also revised downward by 146k. Obviously, it was private payrolls that disappointed (+218k vs. 893k survey) while manufacturing jobs contracted slightly (-18k). Government couldn’t make up for that but did offer a +48k contribution. The unemployment rate actually ticked back to 6.1%, a result of the 0.2% pt improvement in participation and the work week ticked up again.
Google’s mobility update (to 1st May) paints a bit more of a mixed picture of the immediate recovery, even if on a global basis the overall trend is still upward. Indeed, in our sample a majority of countries stepped back over the past week.
Google’s latest mobility update (to 24th April) continues to show a strong recovery, gains focused in developed markets where Covid infection rates have moderated and vaccine coverage continues to increase.
Post-Easter recovery has gathered pace with a substantial improvement in European mobility and economic activity over the past week (to 17th April). The rebound was fairly even across Germany and Italy, with a more modest improvement in Spain, although that comes from a substantially better starting position. France also saw a pick up in activity, but given higher Covid case loads this was modest in comparison. And with the UK lockdowns easing France now carries the mantle of the weakest of our survey group, a position it looks set to retain for a while.
