Independent Strategy

Macro Matters

US

7th August, 2020 » US July Non-Farm Payrolls

Another solid non-farm payrolls report, with 1.763mn jobs added in July, taking the 3-month gain to 9.27mn.  That means the US has now recovered roughly 40% of the jobs shed during the turmoil of March and April.  The report cements confidence that the labour market continues to repair, mirroring the conclusions of yesterday’s weekly jobless claims, if not the lower than expected ADP print we got on Wednesday.

The recovery of the US labour market continues.  ADP reported 2.369mn jobs were added in June.  This was accompanied by a sharp upward revision to May’s report (initially reported as a loss of -2.760mn job and now revised to a gain of +3.065mn.  That might bring it closer to the May non-farm payrolls report (+2.509mn) but is nonetheless a rather astounding revision, which perhaps encapsulates the problem of accurately measuring the Covid shock.

The disruption from the Coronavirus continues to impact the data with the employment numbers for May showing a significant deviation from expectations and the near 2mn loss reported in the May ADP report.  Indeed, based on the preliminary numbers the economy added 2.51mn jobs over the month, which compares to the 20.69mn jobs lost in April.  Methodological problems are again in evidence ...

China

12th May, 2020 » China April Inflation

While some of the Chinese activity indicators might have perked up, there is no hiding from the disinflationary pressure stalking China’s economy.  April CPI dropped back to 3.3% yoy (4.3% in March) while PPI sunk to -3.1% from -1.5% in the previous month.  And the problem would be even worse were it not for persistent food price pressures as the impact of the earlier swine flue epidemic continues to pressure meat prices.  Indeed, CPI ex-food is now running at just 0.6%.

Tags

ADP (7) Agriculturals (1) Asia crisis (1) Asset Allocation (1) Australia (2) Autos (1) Bank of Japan (1) Big Data (1) BoJ (1) Bonds (6) Brazil (1) Brexit (5) Canada (1) Capital Goods (2) Central Bank (8) Challenger (1) China (18) Claims (1) Climate change (2) Commodities (1) Copper (1) Coronavirus (4) Corporate Bonds (1) Corporate Debt (2) Covid (1) Covid-19 (5) CPI (7) Credit (37) Current Account (1) Debt (2) Debt Crisis (4) Democracy (4) Demographics (9) Disruptive Technologies (4) Durable Goods (1) Earnings (1) ECB (9) Elections (2) Emerging Markets (4) Employment (10) Equities (1) Euro (3) Eurogroup (1) Europe (2) Eurozone (19) Exports (2) Factory Orders (6) Federal Reserve (7) Fixed Income (2) France (1) FX (2) GDP (11) Germany (15) Globalisation (8) Global Pandemic (2) Gold (2) Google Mobility (4) HICP (1) Hong Kong (1) Housing (4) IFO (3) Income (1) India (1) Industrial Production (9) Inflation (22) Interest Rates (11) Internet (1) Investment (5) IP (9) Iran (4) Ireland (1) ISM (2) Italy (6) Japan (5) Jobless Claims (1) Korea (3) Labour Market (10) Liquidity (8) Manufacturing (3) Monetary Policy (18) Money (4) Money Market (1) Money Supply (12) Myanmar (1) New Monetarism (6) New Zealand (1) Oil (6) Online (1) Payrolls (10) PCE (2) PMI (1) PMIs (1) Politics (9) Populism (6) Portugal (1) PPI (4) Production (1) Productivity (2) Profits (1) QE (5) Real Estate (1) Reserves (1) Retail Sales (11) Russia (2) Services (3) Services PMI (1) Sovereign Bonds (2) Sovereign Debt (4) Spain (4) Sterling (1) Sweden (2) Technials (1) Technicals (64) TICS (1) Total Social Financing (6) Trade (10) TSF (4) Turkey (1) UK (18) Ukraine (1) Unemployment (8) US (35) USD (9) Vietnam (1) Wages (12)

In the Media