Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
Tags: Bonds
The Australian economy has had a great run, avoiding recession for almost three decades. Most macro indicators are in reasonable shape. But there are three risks looming. First, high levels of household debt and heavy exposure to residential housing put domestic demand under the spotlight.
Fears of a new cold war with Russia have not been fully realised, even if relations remain strained. Europe is…
More than 12 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC) central banks do not feel able to…
Global economic growth has peaked almost everywhere. This cancels most of our long-term fixed income shorts, with the exception of…
We believe that the major global determinants of secular inflation (globalisation, technology, demography) will continue to hold price growth down.…
