Google activity data has been updated through to the 12th December and while there hasn’t been any significant reversal, there look to be some signs at the margin that Omicron is starting to drag. This comes from both the impact the strain is having on case numbers and confidence as well as the impact of more precautionary restrictions are having on activity to try and slow the spread.
Vaccinations have continued to rise exponentially up 50% between Jan 17 and Jan 23 from 40.6mn to 61.1mn. 2% of Europe's population (UK 9.3%) and 5.8% of the US's have received one vaccine dose. For Asia the figure is 0.5% and China 1.04%. The number of fully vaccinated people has risen globally from 2.7mn to 4.9mn. In Europe the % of the population fully vaccinated is 0.11% (UK 0.69%) and in the US 0.84%.
We’ve been honing high-frequency indicators to follow the pace of recovery in major economies from the depths of the Covid pandemic lockdowns. Our indicators, entitled mobility and economic activity indexes, measure the level of activity against the pre-pandemic level using the Google Mobility Indices and the Dallas Fed’s Mobility Engagement measure. We adjust these to obtain a smoothed and comparable index of near-time activity.