UK Boris seems to be responding quite well to treatment, which is encouraging. The media debate that his temporary removal created a power vacuum and compromised decision making just misunderstands how Cabinet government works and was just a complete non-story chased by journalists fatigued by the Covid echo-chamber. Real question is how do we exit the current lockdown situation? Cabinet is discussing this today and it’s expected we’ll see the initial three week period extended through to the end of the month.
Tags: Germany
The survey data still continues to paint a rather bleak picture for German industry with the expectations component taking a renewed step lower in June and while current conditions were a shade better than expected together this marked a new low point in this leg of the cycle for the overall climate index.
April turned out to be another poor month for German industry with the decline in overall industrial production fairly modest compared to the drop on the manufacturing side, where output dropped 2.5% on the month leaving output down 3.4% y/y.
Deterioration continues to run at pace, with some rebound in domestic demand failing to offset continuing weakness on the export side. The release points to a further deterioration in exports in the coming months, although the decline in industrial production is running more closely, suggesting that a further downward adjustment/slump is not needed there.
While there looks to have been an improvement in March it’s generally led by a better services performance. Looking at industry the trajectory remains weak with the ‘IFO clock’ remaining in downswing territory amid a further mild deterioration in expectations. This continues to suggest ongoing manufacturing weakness, confirming the deterioration seen in the manufacturing PMI.
German January factory orders, February Germany vehicle production chart pack
January Germany factory orders and auto production data
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