Independent Strategy

Tags: Google Mobility

Amid the ongoing spread of the Delta variant the Google activity data through to 24th July is showing a fairly clear picture as to where the damage is being done.  And its perhaps not much of a surprise to see that the places where vaccine rollout has been most efficient are faring rather better than in the countries where efforts have been rather more pedestrian.

The Google activity data through to 17th July continues to support the recovery thesis, with global activity remaining near its recent peaks and economic activity holding above its pre-pandemic starting point (+3pts).  Mobility meanwhile has eased a little bit, remaining 17pts below where it stood pre-Covid.

The Google activity data through to 10th July throwing up nothing to alter the underlying view that the economic recovery continues to move ahead.  Global activity is trundling along near recent highs.  That is important given the recent uptick in Covid cases as the Delta variant continues to spread – largely we would stress among unvaccinated groups, which also happen to be in most cases those that are unlikely to suffer from the more severe symptoms that forced lockdowns earlier in the Pandemic.

Looking at the Google activity data through to 26th June it looks as if there are some early signs that the recent pick up in infections/increase in risk perceptions has started to eat into activity a little.  But even in places where infection rates have risen fairly rapidly – the UK for example – the corresponding drop off in activity has been mild.

Working through the latest Google mobility update (through to 5th June) you get an increasing sense of normality.  Although most places are still showing activity levels below where they were pre-pandemic, the gap looks pretty small and momentum remains strong.  Of our survey group four recorded w/w declines but really this is part of the ebb and flow rather than anything more sinister going on.  Even India has managed to move higher as the recent Covid wave there continues to abate.

The latest Google mobility update (through to 29th May) continues to show strong progress towards normalisation of the global economy. Of our survey group only three (23% of sample) recorded a w/w decline in activity and all of this was in places that shouldn’t really be a cause for concern. And the most notable victim of the virus (India) has finally managed to bounce. We also saw upticks in Japan, where an increase in cases had also worried.

The latest Google activity figures (through to 22nd May) continue to support the strong global recovery narrative with the latest improvement being driven by ongoing gains in Europe.  Indeed France and Germany led the increase in activity last week, with Italy, Spain and the UK also in our top group (alongside Russia).  Mexico, Australia and the US recorded small gains too.

Post-Easter recovery has gathered pace with a substantial improvement in European mobility and economic activity over the past week (to 17th April).  The rebound was fairly even across Germany and Italy, with a more modest improvement in Spain, although that comes from a substantially better starting position.  France also saw a pick up in activity, but given higher Covid case loads this was modest in comparison.  And with the UK lockdowns easing France now carries the mantle of the weakest of our survey group, a position it looks set to retain for a while.

Easter drag having an impact across most markets, leading to a drop in overall global economic activity over the past week (to 10th April).  This seasonal drag is mixed up with tighter restrictions in many European countries in reaction to the more recent increase in Covid cases and slower rollouts of vaccines.  But comparing the improving countries with the laggards still gives us some insights as to the severity of the drop here, with around half the decline in France Germany and Italy appearing to be a function of Easter, with the rest the virus.

The latest batch of Google mobility data, which take us up to 13th March, hints at a slight slowdown in the rate of improvement, amid some setbacks in some of the individual countries we survey.  But this looks like ebb and flow and doesn’t detract from the underlying trend, which remains one of improvement.

The improvements made in mobility and economic activity continues based of the latest batch of google mobility data.  The series take us up to 6th March and based on that the recovery remains on the front foot, underpinned by expanding vaccine coverage and the resulting boost to confidence that has delivered as well as the overall decline in infection rates, even if that trend looks to have flatlined more immediately.

Based on Google mobility statistics we’re seeing a sustained improvement in activity now.  This is only likely to gather speed as vaccine coverage continues to expand, restrictions ease, alongside the seasonal improvements one should expect upon the arrival of spring, and, with a bit of luck, some UV.

Google mobility data continues to paint an improving picture, with mobility and economic activity nudging higher again over the past week.  And the breadth of improvement is encouraging too. There was a solid increase across Europe in particular, driven by Germany but France, Italy, Spain and the UK also moved positively.  Developed Asia also fared well.  There was a modest dip in Australia amid some short-term localised lockdowns, but the damage from pre-Covid levels is far milder here anyway.

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POST » 10th February, 2021 » Early signs of recovery

With the continued decline in new reported Covid cases globally, it is no surprise that we’ve started to see an improvement in overall activity levels.  At least based on the Google data. Indeed, all but one of the countries in our sample recorded a week on week improvement.  The worst was France and that was simply stable.  Europe remains at the bottom of the pile in terms of overall activity, but the corner has certainly been turned and we’d expect to see this pick-up to extend and accelerate over the coming weeks.

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