Independent Strategy

Tags: Investment

The improvement in the surveys continues to provide a realistic guide to Chia’s improving fortunes with the December real activity data corroborating this picture.  The strong recovery in industrial production is most noticeable, with y/y rate jumping to 6.9%, the highest since March

While China’s 3Q GDP number was a little lower than expectations at 6.0% y/y the monthly production and activity series for September all improved.  Retail sales growth picked up to 7.8% y/y from 7.5% while industrial activity rebounded to 5.8% y/y from 4.4% in August.  Investment was perhaps the one area of disappointment, growth slowing to 5.4% y/y despite a further modest pick up on the State Owned side.

US

POST » 27th June, 2019 » US Final Q1 GDP

The final reading of US first quarter growth, at first glance, paints a positive picture.  The quarterly pace of expansion came in at 3.1% ann. with y/y growth hitting 3.2%, the highest since Q1 2015.  But the structure shows clear evidence of the cross currents at work with an upward revision to the inventories build and a relatively better gain from net exports offsetting a moderation of domestic consumption growth.

The improvement we saw in the headline activity numbers in March proved short lived with both industrial production and retail sales taking a renewed dive in April.  Auto sector weakness was notably pronounced.  Passenger car unit sales are down some 11% from the June 2018 peak, which is unprecedented in a developing economy with a reported growth rate as that of China.

Global

REPORT » 6th March, 2019 » Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.

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