The headline non-farm payrolls jobs figure surprised on the downside in April, with 266k jobs created versus the median forecast of 978k. And the March figure was also revised downward by 146k. Obviously, it was private payrolls that disappointed (+218k vs. 893k survey) while manufacturing jobs contracted slightly (-18k). Government couldn’t make up for that but did offer a +48k contribution. The unemployment rate actually ticked back to 6.1%, a result of the 0.2% pt improvement in participation and the work week ticked up again.
February Non-farm payrolls recorded a 379k gain, comfortably exceeding the +182k median forecast. This leaves the 3m average at +80k. Private sector payrolls were significantly better than the headline print at +465k, manufacturing added +21k jobs while government dropped -86k. The surprise might have been even higher were it not for the weather events in Texas, which was behind the 939k people not at work due to the weather (Feb average is 385k). The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.2% and participation was unchanged at 61.4% despite this. The workweek did drop though, to 34.6, although this is from a rather elevated 34.9.
December Non-farm payrolls recorded a -140k drop, quite a bit below the markets +71k guess. This takes the 3m average down to +283k. Private sector payrolls were a little better than the headline print at -95k, helped by manufacturing which added +38k jobs while the decline in government moderated to -45k. That was still the fourth consecutive decline but is largely census related. Despite the headline miss revisions were very positive, +91k in November alone
November Non-farm payrolls number came in at +245k (mkt +469k), bringing the 3m average down to +5227k. Private sector payrolls were a little better again at +344k but there is a sequential slowdown happening there too. Manufacturing payrolls grew by 27k while we saw another month of government job losses, -99k, the third consecutive drop. Revisions overall were down a bit, Oct NFP revised down to 610k vs. the 638k initially reported.
October Non-farm payrolls number came in at +638k (mkt +600k), leaving the 3m average at +934k. But the private payrolls number comfortably bettered expectations once again at +906k vs. 690k mkt. Manufacturing payrolls grew but not as much as hoped (+38k vs. +50k est) while we saw another month of government job losses, -268k following on from -220k in Sep. Revisions overall were slightly positive though
September non-farm payrolls number came in under expectations at +661k (mkt +850k). But the private payrolls number bettered at +877k vs. 850k mkt, while manufacturing payrolls also beat (+66k vs. +35k est) with a loss of 216k on the government side explaining the headline miss. There was a sizable upward revision to the jobs gained in August too.
August’s non-farm payrolls report came out basically in line with expectations (+1.371mn vs +1.400mn consensus). While we saw a modest downward revision to the July release, the report reinforces the overall “repairs underway” story for the labour market. Part of this was due to further strong growth in government payrolls (+344k), private payrolls (1.027mn) were rather further from the markets more confident expectations.
Another solid non-farm payrolls report, with 1.763mn jobs added in July, taking the 3-month gain to 9.27mn. That means the US has now recovered roughly 40% of the jobs shed during the turmoil of March and April. The report cements confidence that the labour market continues to repair, mirroring the conclusions of yesterday’s weekly jobless claims, if not the lower than expected ADP print we got on Wednesday.
The disruption from the Coronavirus continues to impact the data with the employment numbers for May showing a significant deviation from expectations and the near 2mn loss reported in the May ADP report. Indeed, based on the preliminary numbers the economy added 2.51mn jobs over the month, which compares to the 20.69mn jobs lost in April. Methodological problems are again in evidence ...
Bleak payrolls report. While the median survey was always going to be a short in the dark, the -701k decline in jobs was significantly more troubling than the mkts -100k guess. That’s the worst number since March 2009, a period of losses that saw five consecutive payrolls figures below the -700k mark starting from November 2008. Looking at the past fortnights jobless claims figures the April number and revisions to this release will paint an even bleaker picture of the labour market. In the household survey nearly 2.987mn jobs were recorded lost.
Tracking the strong ADP release on Wednesday, the January non-farm payrolls report also comfortably beat expectations. Weather has helped a bit last couple of months, with seasonal disruptions lower than normal, but that doesn’t detract from the underlying strength of the labour market.
Slight undershoot in the December payrolls report, but the 145k jobs created is only modestly below the 164k market guess and while the revisions from November were slightly downward that was a strong report in itself. Over 12-months revisions are very mildly negative but not showing any real deterioration in trend since the summer.
A positive surprise, particularly after the weak ADP number on Wednesday, with non-farm payrolls +224k in June, although there were mild downward revisions for the previous two months (-11k).
Mirroring the weak ADP figure the May payrolls numbers also surprised on the downside. Revisions also downward, which also showed up in ADP’s release. The participation rate was stable, as was the unemployment rate. Hourly earnings were a little softer than expected and hours worked were flat at 34.4, which is down versus a year ago, dampening gains in weekly wage growth.
A stronger payrolls number, but after the disruptions of last month (weather knocking around 80k off the headline figure) the bounce could still have been a stronger. But enough to maintain sold employment growth, which continues to defy estimates that the labour market is tight...