Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
Tags: USD
The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.
About this economic recovery, four things strike. First, services (“intangibles”) are ticking along nicely, but manufacturing is a disaster. Second, developed markets…
The Fed’s hold is simply a postponement of the inevitable first hike, which is most probably in December. EM risks are…
