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Roche Says China Growth May Fall to 4% on Bank Crisis-Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- David Roche, president of Independent Strategy and a former Morgan Stanley global strategist, talks about the outlook for the European debt crisis, and its impact on emerging stock and commodity markets. Roche speaks with Rishaad Salamat and Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "Asia Edge."-David Roche-Bloomberg Television-09/01/12

Roche Says U.S. on Same Fiscal Trajectory as Greece-Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- David Roche, president of Independent Strategy and a former Morgan Stanley global strategist, talks about the outlook for U.S. and Greece debt problems and his investment strategy. Roche speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "Asia Edge."-David Roche-Bloomberg Television-19/09/11

Roche: China Won’t Allow Yuan Appreciation-The Chinese authorities won't allow the yuan to appreciate over the next year or so, says David Roche, global strategist at Independent Strategy Ltd. He explains why to CNBC's Karen Tso & Sri Jegarajah.-David Roche-CNBC-10/11/09

MACRO MATTERS

Technicals

12th November, 2019 » IS Weekly Technicals – 12th November

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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China

12th November, 2019 » China October Money Supply & Credit

Quite a slowdown in credit growth during October, certainly compared to the rate we saw last year.  While the trend for shadow sector deleveraging continues there was also quite a sharp slowing of bank loans.  Corporate bond issuance remained muted while there was a pronounced deceleration in the ‘other’ category, which now encompasses local government bond issuance.

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US

6th November, 2019 » US Q3 (Prelim) Productivity

A rather disappointing first assessment of US productivity in the third quarter.  Non-farm productivity registered the first qoq decline since the end of 2015.  On the positive side the yoy rate still looks a reasonable 1.4%, compared to a 5-year average of 1.1%, but the trend still lacks much conviction.  Really, we’re still flatlining at best.  Labour costs were stronger than expected, rising at a 3.6% annualised rate in the non-farm sector overall.  That’ll raise the heckles of the hawks that view the tight labour market as a risk.

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