In the Media : Independent Strategy

MACRO MATTERS

4th December, 2020 » MacroUS November Payrolls Report

November Non-farm payrolls number came in at +245k (mkt +469k), bringing the 3m average down to +5227k. Private sector payrolls were a little better again at +344k but there is a sequential slowdown happening there too. Manufacturing payrolls grew by 27k while we saw another month of government job losses, -99k, the third consecutive drop. Revisions overall were down a bit, Oct NFP revised down to 610k vs. the 638k initially reported.

2nd December, 2020 » MacroUS catching up with Europe’s down

The Google mobility indicators show a further decline in both mobility and economic activity over the past week. The dip perhaps overstates the scale of the drop with US Thanksgiving holiday (which generated a bump in activity going into the holiday, and dip during and after) combining with tougher localised restrictions there. The story in Europe was better.

1st December, 2020 » TechnicalsIS Weekly Technicals – 1st December

Chart pack and analysis attached.

In the Media

Our Latest Media Comment

Geopolitical risk forecasts to be reduced-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-02/12/20

Banks are now almost public utilities-David Roche-CNBC-02/11/20

The Covid-19 pandemic is accelerating social inequality-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-21/10/20

A Biden victory would mean more cooperation between the US and Europe to counter China-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-30/09/20

US export curbs on SMIC will affect China’s tech development-David Roche-CNBC-28/09/20

China pumps money into corporations which helps the PMI survey, but the PMI gauge doesn’t reflect rising wealth inequality-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-02/09/20

China to be the ultimate loser in US-China Cold War-David Roche-CNBC-17/08/20

The Money Maze podcast clip ‘The Illusions of China’s power’-Full podcast available at https://moneymazepodcast.com/podcast/david-roche-thoughts-from-hong-kong-David Roche-The Money Maze Podcast-13/08/20

The Money Maze podcast clip ‘Getting inside the Chinese mind set’-Full podcast available at https://moneymazepodcast.com/podcast/david-roche-thoughts-from-hong-kong-David Roche-The Money Maze Podcast-13/08/20

Independent Strategy’s President and Global Strategist David Roche is a guest on The Money Maze – a new podcast series that features conversations with some of the world’s top financial minds.-David Roche-The Money Maze Podcast-13/08/20

The TikTok saga is another step towards a US-China cold war and expect finance to be targeted next-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-05/08/20

China and the US are now in a Cold War but US sanctions to remain targeted at individuals rather than financial institutions-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-13/07/20

Possible US sanctions will not have a major impact on Hong Kong’s economy but uncertainties surrounding the national security law could curtail the city’s attractiveness-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-08/06/20

The number of COVID-19 coronavirus cases in the US are likely to be under-reported, as the country doesn’t have enough testing kits-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-11/03/20

Don’t expect supply chains in China to return to normal for at least three quarters-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-10/02/20

The relief measures announced by HK CE Carrie Lam amount to 0.3% of GDP and will make little difference to the economy-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-15/01/20

The trade deal between the US and China is a minor affair and will not reduce tensions between the two countries-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-18/12/19

Investment Views-David Roche-CNBC-Class-14/11/19

HK CE Carrie Lam’s new measures for housing and land supply are correct in theory, but there is no focus on the delivery and timetable-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-17/10/19

Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposal is ‘unlikely to work’-David Roche-CNBC-03/10/19

There will be a global recession, and in the markets the first casualty will be equities-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-25/09/19

China will win the trade war-David Roche-CNBC-09/09/19

The trade dispute and the civil unrest are connected, as questions would be raised about the US-HK Policy Act of 1992 if the mainland used repression in the SAR-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-02/09/19

The manufacturing sector is very weak globally, and the world economy is giving a worrying picture for the stock markets-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-05/08/19

There is no justification for a rate cut in the US as the recent data has been booming-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-15/07/19

The HK extradition bill will affect the local economy and investor confidence-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-11/06/19

Globalisation has peaked, and it started before Trump-David Roche-CNBC-30/04/19

With the high deficits in the US, fiscal spending in the middle of the year will start to wane-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-29/04/19

The US and China may not reach a trade deal, since President Trump has his own political interests in mind-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3 Money Talk-18/03/19

Technology is going through a ‘decanonization’-David Roche-CNBC-29/01/19

David Roche talks about Death of Democracy-David Roche talks to Noreen Mir at RTHK Radio 3 about his new book - Death of Democracy-David Roche-RTHK Radio 3-28/11/18

The trade war is a ‘multiyear trend’-David Roche-CNBC-19/11/18

China’s economy will succeed or fail on tech drive-David Roche-CNBC-09/11/18

The sharp fall in equities was a ‘trailer’ to the main show-David Roche-CNBC-07/02/18

We’re all tired of experts-David Roche-CNBC-22/07/17

Italy the key domino in Europe-David Roche-CNBC-02/01/17

What will it take to fix Italy’s banks-David Roche-CNBC Europe-02/08/16

US could see 3% growth in H2-David Roche-CNBC Asia-31/05/16

What are the risks weighing on the markets-David Roche-Bloomberg Television-27/05/16

Fed’s Yellen will run out of excuses-David Roche-CNBC Asia-03/05/16

The long and the short challenges facing oil markets-David Roche discusses the outlook for oil prices (Bloomberg, 26th April 2016)-David Roche-Bloomberg Television-26/04/16

Will Greece and Eurogroup ever agree-Bob McKee-CNBC-23/04/15

Roche: China Won’t Allow Yuan Appreciation-The Chinese authorities won't allow the yuan to appreciate over the next year or so, says David Roche, global strategist at Independent Strategy Ltd. He explains why to CNBC's Karen Tso & Sri Jegarajah.-David Roche-CNBC-10/11/09

David Roche on Asia’s coming crisis-David Roche-Thomas Crampton-30/10/08

MACRO MATTERS

4th December, 2020 » MacroUS November Payrolls Report

2nd December, 2020 » MacroUS catching up with Europe’s down

1st December, 2020 » TechnicalsIS Weekly Technicals – 1st December

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