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Latest|China – What the big bank does not say

David Roche discusses how China is dealing with the rising threat from private data and the power this generates.

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MACRO MATTERS

US

29th July, 2021 » Macro Data – US Prelim Q2 GDP

The headline Q2 GDP number looks like quite a big miss as +6.5% q/q ann. versus the +8.5% mkt median.  And Q1 was revised down a touch too.  But the underlying picture still looks pretty robust in reality.  In fact, the bulk of the miss could be attributed to the ongoing disruptions that Covid continues to generate, specifically in terms of the further sharp decline we saw in inventories, which knocked 1.1% pts from that 6.5% rate.  Government spending was also notably weak (its contribution knocking a further -0.3% pts off the headline), particularly government investment.

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Global

28th July, 2021 » Fast Track Data — Vaccination rates determining Delta hit

Amid the ongoing spread of the Delta variant the Google activity data through to 24th July is showing a fairly clear picture as to where the damage is being done.  And its perhaps not much of a surprise to see that the places where vaccine rollout has been most efficient are faring rather better than in the countries where efforts have been rather more pedestrian.

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Technicals

27th July, 2021 » IS Weekly Technicals – 27th July

Chart pack and analysis attached.

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