This is what has changed in the gray zone map of war recently. The Ukraine peace plan of returning all…
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Banking Monitor NEW
Since the beginning of the current crisis, bank deposits have fallen $390bn, while borrowing from the Fed and other sources…
The world is not at war, but neither is there a new cold war. The world is in a gray…
There were two key elections over the weekend. In Turkey, the result suggests no move forward; in Thailand, however, the…
Banking Monitor NEW
Bank deposit outflows reversed in May to date. Regional bank stocks remained under pressure.
Banking Monitor NEW
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate again last week and indicated that any fall in the rate was unlikely…
The Fed and the ECB both raised their policy rates by 25bp. The Fed has paused. The ECB has not.…
The imminent sell-off of First Republic Bank is another chapter in the banking crisis. There was large outflow of deposits…
With the immediate liquidity crisis over, the Fed has now returned to cutting its balance sheet, mainly through reductions in…
HKD interest rates have dropped far below Fed-set USD rates in this cycle. Under a currency board system, that can’t…
Given the supply-demand fundamentals, the current historically high grain prices are not going to fall back. However, slowing global demand…
The banking crisis in March appears to be over, according to the latest April data from the Federal Reserve. But…
The SVB bankruptcy is a small bank story. But it is a global story for all big banks in big…
Total borrowing by banks from the Fed fell back a little last week and the Fed resumed its tightening mode.…
GPT is a part of the AI jigsaw. It is much hyped at the moment. But when it comes to…
The banking panic subsided a little in the week ending 31 March. But investor confidence in the banks remains low…
US commercial bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve facilities continued to rise last week, while deposits continued to move out…
The Fed did as expected and hiked 25bp. That means trouble later.
The ECB raised rates by 50bp for all its instruments. It was a contested majority decision. The financial stability mandate…
The US authorities have acted effectively to limit SVB contagion.
The strategic view of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse is that it will not become the trigger for a…
Energy is a core long position. So far, it has been an unspectacular call. But we have five good reasons…
Nuclear power is back. Nuclear is the most geopolitically stable and environmentally-friendly way out of the energy crisis in Europe.…
Last month has hardly been glorious for our positions. So should some investment positions be changed? Only if we believe…
The hedges against our strategic forecasts re oil and grains (both longs). The Japanese yen will become a safe haven.…
There are several reasons to go long EU gas (TTF) and global LNG. First, last year’s reductions in EU demand…
China’s total social financing (TSF) in January rose more than expected. This is being greeted as a massive boost to…
The yen is our biggest currency long. JGBs are our biggest sovereign bond short. Japanese banks are one of the…
As expected, grain markets have tightened over the winter as the impact of a long-lasting La Nina continues. That may…
The Happy Scenario for markets has five ‘peaces’. We believe in only one (no global recession). For the rest, we…
The Fed, ECB and the BoE all hiked interest rates as expected. Markets saw the moves as the end of…
Sovereign bond issuance this year will not be a factor in determining bond prices. It’s the demand side that will…
This report looks beyond the cyclical to the secular and poses the question: “Is this the start of the post-growth…
We are long oil. The oil price is likely to get to USD120/bbl by mid-2023 and average USD140 bbl in…
The liberal democracies are not arming Ukraine to win this war outright. The most likely outcome is a long war…
The latest planned shipment of weapons to Ukraine does not change the equation that we are not arming Kyiv to…
Our key positions to start 2023 are: Long JPY, oil and agro commodities. Short US treasuries and JGBs. Selective on…
It is unlikely this visit will deliver what is needed. The offensive weapons Ukraine needs to win this war are…
There are two dumb deals, but important ones: 1) the BoJ decision to raise the target band for JGB yields…
The Fed, the ECB, and the BoE all increased their policy interest rates by 50bp. That was as expected. Relative…
China’s zero-Covid policy has reached its limits. The intention is gradually to relax restrictions while efforts to improve vaccination rates,…
Wandering through Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, Russia, the EU and the future: reconstruction for Ukraine; Saudi-China alliance; China’s COVID…
The G7+Australia price cap on Russian oil shipments at $60/bbl is a joke. It leaves Russia with almost unchanged revenues.
The euro has bottomed. Our target is $1.12-1.15 next year. This is as much due to the US dollar peaking…
The coming meeting of the leaders of China and Saudi Arabia heralds the sort of alliance that will deepen world…
It was not a total copout, but nearly. The COP27 conference achieved one breakthrough: an agreement to set up a…
The COP27 climate conference in Egypt is the last chance saloon for governments and agents to get their act together…
The US mid-term elections are most decisive global election of the decade. What is at stake is a global system…
We are adding long oil to the portfolio again. This report explains why. Russia will disrupt the oil market rather…
The Fed will go on hiking policy rates through most of 2023. That maintains global financial market headwinds and ultimately…
