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Independent Strategy: Reports

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Global

1st April, 2021 » Addicted to stuff  NEW

People obsess about post-Covid debt. But the reality, as the pandemic begins to wane, is that private sector balance sheets…

Europe

12th March, 2021 » Lagarde unleashed  NEW

The ECB might not have changed policy rates or increased its QE programme, but the significance of yesterday’s policy tweaks…

Germany

10th March, 2021 » Green power

Germany’s Green party looks set to be the big winner of upcoming state elections. The outcome may also influence the…

Global

3rd March, 2021 » How things connect

Policy normalisation is a great post-Covid challenge. It will be forced on policy makers by markets, rather than being an…

Global

16th February, 2021 » Herding cats

Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless…

Italy

14th February, 2021 » Enter the dragon

With Draghi running the country, Italy will be led by a heavyweight. He is highly respected on the global scene…

Global

29th January, 2021 » Vaccine wars

Equities are the most vulnerable asset class to vaccine wars. The euro is perhaps the most vulnerable rich-country currency. All…

Global

18th January, 2021 » More Covid bore

Markets care about stimulus but not much about Covid. They look through the Covid data. But this is wrong. Covid…

Special Report: Commodities

18th January, 2021 » Special Report: CommoditiesBuying food

The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture supports our long position in wheat. There is further upside…

Global

13th January, 2021 » Surprise surprise

There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…

Germany

12th January, 2021 » The end is nigh

This week kicks off a momentous political year in Germany, culminating in the federal election in September and subsequent retirement…

Global

15th December, 2020 » Quantum economics

David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how…

Turkey

9th November, 2020 » The purge

Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…

Global

13th October, 2020 » Dodging icebergs

A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…

Global

12th October, 2020 » Towards the credit void

The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…

Global

25th September, 2020 » Biding time

Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…

Italy

22nd September, 2020 » Fairer winds

The results of the Italian regional elections and the approval of the electoral reform law by referendum last weekend should…

US

17th September, 2020 » Future nostalgia

The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…

US

16th September, 2020 » The blank sheet

It is hard to say much about the upcoming US elections. Biden is so bland as to be much like…

UK

9th September, 2020 » Smiley’s convictions

We have avoided taking a position in sterling throughout the Brexit negotiations; the odds were too binary. But the government’s…

In the Media