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Independent Strategy: Reports

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Global

6th April, 2020 » War and pieces  NEW

War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…

Global

1st April, 2020 » Covid and cash flow  NEW

Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…

Global

30th March, 2020 » War horse  NEW

Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…

Global

24th March, 2020 » Before reality sets in  NEW

The economic shock from Covid-19 is being underestimated. This is natural when the immediate priority is safeguarding human life. This…

Germany

7th February, 2020 » Thuringian tremors

Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…

India

14th January, 2020 » On a slide

There is much to worry about in India. The slowdown in growth might have coincided with global weakness, but the…

Taiwan

13th January, 2020 » Democracy rules ok?

The outcome of Saturday’s Taiwanese presidential election was no great surprise. It reinforces the problems China and President Xi face…

Global

16th December, 2019 » Cold water

The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…

Thailand

11th December, 2019 » A baht time?

Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…

Hong Kong

25th November, 2019 » Democratic tensions

The victory of pro-democracy candidates in the weekend’s Hong Kong (HK) district council elections creates another problem for US/China trade…

UK

4th November, 2019 » Beyond eternity

While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…

US

17th October, 2019 » Warning signs

The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…

Europe

7th October, 2019 » , Ad-Blues

The ongoing slump in German industrial activity isn’t likely to end soon. Many of the problems are structural and result…

Global

26th August, 2019 » La Rentree

Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…

Global

5th June, 2019 » Duller dollar

Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening…

Global

23rd May, 2019 » Horse trading

The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…

Spain

29th April, 2019 » Por una cabeza

Pedro Sanchez’ gamble to call a snap election paid off. His PSOE has become the biggest party in parliament, its share of the vote at least 10% points ahead of any other. Yet one is left with a lingering sense of fragmentation, especially on the right.

China

26th April, 2019 » , , Trade thunks

We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.

In the Media