From an internationalist perspective, the US Congress budget deal is bad news. It is not critical to ensure support for…
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Grain prices are near three-year lows. This is based on optimism on Ukraine supplies and on future crop yields and…
The new Huawei smart phone (the Mate 60 Pro) has a 7nm chip. The CPU chip is the Kirin 9000s.…
ECB interest rates are to stay high (but not higher) for a long (but not longer) time.
In this report, we summarise our current convictions on the key economic and political trends globally and the investment strategy…
What will Europe and the world look like in a decade? It will be a safer place. Equities will perform…
We don’t think the living standards of emerging markets are going to converge with those of rich countries in the…
China’s property sector implosion is worsening and credit growth is falling. The economy is entering a debt deflation trap. We…
We increased our long positions immediately following the end of the Black Sea shipping agreement between Russia and Ukraine. We…
There are three dark towers in financial markets. They are the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB – dark towers…
Are the developed economies entering a ‘sweet spot’, a Goldilocks economy where ‘normal’ inflation resumes, interest rates fall, economic growth…
Spain’s snap election over the weekend proved inconclusive. While the centre-right Partido Popular came out on top they failed to…
It looks like this time Putin may be serious about pulling out of the grain deal. Together with El Nino/global…
The victory of the Thai opposition parties in the May election looks like being thwarted by the military-backed government. That…
There’s an important change in political trajectory in Europe. So-called extremist parties are gaining power and office in Europe’s governments.…
The Wagner group coup in Russia collapsed overnight. Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, has left the motherland for Lukashenko’s tender…
This is definitely an attempted Prigozhin/Wagner coup against Shoigu and Gerasimov and indirectly Putin. Our view is that this coup…
This week’s round of central bank meetings should achieve one thing: put to bed any concept of early policy interest-rate…
We are about to enter into a period of rejoicing about falling inflation. But this is all about base effects.…
All the jollity and frolicking that met the post-Covid reopening has gone. Of course, Chinese equities are now cheaper (Figure…
This is what has changed in the gray zone map of war recently. The Ukraine peace plan of returning all…
Since the beginning of the current crisis, bank deposits have fallen $390bn, while borrowing from the Fed and other sources…
The world is not at war, but neither is there a new cold war. The world is in a gray…
There were two key elections over the weekend. In Turkey, the result suggests no move forward; in Thailand, however, the…
Bank deposit outflows reversed in May to date. Regional bank stocks remained under pressure.
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate again last week and indicated that any fall in the rate was unlikely…
The Fed and the ECB both raised their policy rates by 25bp. The Fed has paused. The ECB has not.…
The imminent sell-off of First Republic Bank is another chapter in the banking crisis. There was large outflow of deposits…
With the immediate liquidity crisis over, the Fed has now returned to cutting its balance sheet, mainly through reductions in…
HKD interest rates have dropped far below Fed-set USD rates in this cycle. Under a currency board system, that can’t…
Given the supply-demand fundamentals, the current historically high grain prices are not going to fall back. However, slowing global demand…
The banking crisis in March appears to be over, according to the latest April data from the Federal Reserve. But…
The SVB bankruptcy is a small bank story. But it is a global story for all big banks in big…
Total borrowing by banks from the Fed fell back a little last week and the Fed resumed its tightening mode.…
GPT is a part of the AI jigsaw. It is much hyped at the moment. But when it comes to…
The banking panic subsided a little in the week ending 31 March. But investor confidence in the banks remains low…
US commercial bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve facilities continued to rise last week, while deposits continued to move out…
The Fed did as expected and hiked 25bp. That means trouble later.
The ECB raised rates by 50bp for all its instruments. It was a contested majority decision. The financial stability mandate…
The US authorities have acted effectively to limit SVB contagion.
The strategic view of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse is that it will not become the trigger for a…
Energy is a core long position. So far, it has been an unspectacular call. But we have five good reasons…
Nuclear power is back. Nuclear is the most geopolitically stable and environmentally-friendly way out of the energy crisis in Europe.…
Last month has hardly been glorious for our positions. So should some investment positions be changed? Only if we believe…
The hedges against our strategic forecasts re oil and grains (both longs). The Japanese yen will become a safe haven.…
There are several reasons to go long EU gas (TTF) and global LNG. First, last year’s reductions in EU demand…
China’s total social financing (TSF) in January rose more than expected. This is being greeted as a massive boost to…
The yen is our biggest currency long. JGBs are our biggest sovereign bond short. Japanese banks are one of the…
As expected, grain markets have tightened over the winter as the impact of a long-lasting La Nina continues. That may…
The Happy Scenario for markets has five ‘peaces’. We believe in only one (no global recession). For the rest, we…
