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Independent Strategy: Reports

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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18th January, 2021 » More Covid bore  NEW

Markets care about stimulus but not much about Covid. They look through the Covid data. But this is wrong. Covid…

Special Report: Commodities

18th January, 2021 » Special Report: CommoditiesBuying foodNEW

The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture supports our long position in wheat. There is further upside…


13th January, 2021 » Surprise surprise  NEW

There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…


12th January, 2021 » The end is nigh  NEW

This week kicks off a momentous political year in Germany, culminating in the federal election in September and subsequent retirement…


15th December, 2020 » Quantum economics

David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how…


9th November, 2020 » The purge

Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…


13th October, 2020 » Dodging icebergs

A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…


12th October, 2020 » Towards the credit void

The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…


25th September, 2020 » Biding time

Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…


22nd September, 2020 » Fairer winds

The results of the Italian regional elections and the approval of the electoral reform law by referendum last weekend should…


17th September, 2020 » Future nostalgia

The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…


16th September, 2020 » The blank sheet

It is hard to say much about the upcoming US elections. Biden is so bland as to be much like…


9th September, 2020 » Smiley’s convictions

We have avoided taking a position in sterling throughout the Brexit negotiations; the odds were too binary. But the government’s…


18th August, 2020 » Pause

Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…


23rd July, 2020 » No capital fright

Capital flight continues from China. This isn’t new and it’s really not a problem, despite the perception that this is…


21st July, 2020 » EU – deal done

The long-awaited approval of the European Union Recovery Fund marks another seminal step towards closer European integration. Like all of…


20th July, 2020 » Rinse, repeat

Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…


9th June, 2020 » The hand of god

The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…


22nd May, 2020 » The bell tolls

The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…


19th May, 2020 » The bore

In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…

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