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Independent Strategy: Reports

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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US

17th September, 2020 » Future nostalgia  NEW

The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…

US

16th September, 2020 » The blank sheet  NEW

It is hard to say much about the upcoming US elections. Biden is so bland as to be much like…

UK

9th September, 2020 » Smiley’s convictions  NEW

We have avoided taking a position in sterling throughout the Brexit negotiations; the odds were too binary. But the government’s…

Global

1st September, 2020 » Return to all that  NEW

And so the deckchairs are folded in the garden shed, the beach towels ranged and fragrant in the hotpress and…

Global

18th August, 2020 » Pause

Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…

China

23rd July, 2020 » No capital fright

Capital flight continues from China. This isn’t new and it’s really not a problem, despite the perception that this is…

Europe

21st July, 2020 » EU – deal done

The long-awaited approval of the European Union Recovery Fund marks another seminal step towards closer European integration. Like all of…

Turkey

20th July, 2020 » Rinse, repeat

Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…

Global

9th June, 2020 » The hand of god

The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…

Global

22nd May, 2020 » The bell tolls

The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…

Global

19th May, 2020 » The bore

In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…

Special Report: Commodities

22nd April, 2020 » Special Report: CommoditiesFighting the wrong fight

Even in times of great uncertainty, obvious things still happen. Shuttering much of the global economy crushed demand. That was…

Global

20th April, 2020 » The last light

It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…

Global

6th April, 2020 » War and pieces

War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…

Global

30th March, 2020 » War horse

Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…

Special Report: Commodities

9th March, 2020 » Special Report: CommoditiesA crude way to double down

We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

13th February, 2020 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaGuts, shit, drought and ….. hope

Environmentalism and sustainability are unstoppable forces. But some investors remain slow to embrace the change. Thus far most effort has…

Germany

7th February, 2020 » Thuringian tremors

Political and economic risks are rising in Germany and, with them, pressure on the CDU. This week’s fateful cooperation with…

India

14th January, 2020 » On a slide

There is much to worry about in India. The slowdown in growth might have coincided with global weakness, but the…

Taiwan

13th January, 2020 » Democracy rules ok?

The outcome of Saturday’s Taiwanese presidential election was no great surprise. It reinforces the problems China and President Xi face…

Global

16th December, 2019 » Cold water

The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…

Thailand

11th December, 2019 » A baht time?

Thailand’s currency is completely out of line with fundamentals. A large current account surplus has sustained it but that is…

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