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Independent Strategy: Reports

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Turkey

9th November, 2020 » The purge  NEW

Erdogan’s removal of another central bank governor and the resignation of his son-in-law from the finance ministry points to a…

Global

13th October, 2020 » Dodging icebergs

A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…

Global

12th October, 2020 » Towards the credit void

The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…

Global

25th September, 2020 » Biding time

Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…

Italy

22nd September, 2020 » Fairer winds

The results of the Italian regional elections and the approval of the electoral reform law by referendum last weekend should…

US

17th September, 2020 » Future nostalgia

The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…

US

16th September, 2020 » The blank sheet

It is hard to say much about the upcoming US elections. Biden is so bland as to be much like…

UK

9th September, 2020 » Smiley’s convictions

We have avoided taking a position in sterling throughout the Brexit negotiations; the odds were too binary. But the government’s…

Global

18th August, 2020 » Pause

Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…

China

23rd July, 2020 » No capital fright

Capital flight continues from China. This isn’t new and it’s really not a problem, despite the perception that this is…

Europe

21st July, 2020 » EU – deal done

The long-awaited approval of the European Union Recovery Fund marks another seminal step towards closer European integration. Like all of…

Turkey

20th July, 2020 » Rinse, repeat

Turkey’s easy monetary policy stance and domestic credit boom is starting to feed back into higher inflation. But with the…

Global

9th June, 2020 » The hand of god

The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…

Global

22nd May, 2020 » The bell tolls

The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…

Global

19th May, 2020 » The bore

In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…

Special Report: Commodities

22nd April, 2020 » Special Report: CommoditiesFighting the wrong fight

Even in times of great uncertainty, obvious things still happen. Shuttering much of the global economy crushed demand. That was…

Global

20th April, 2020 » The last light

It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…

Global

6th April, 2020 » War and pieces

War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…

Global

30th March, 2020 » War horse

Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…

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