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Independent Strategy: Reports

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Europe

22nd July, 2022 » ECB – the new tool  NEW

It is unlikely that the ECB’s new policy tool, TPI (or Transmission Protection Instrument), will change the fate of the…

Italy

20th July, 2022 » Farewell Draghi  NEW

Italy’s PM Mario Draghi is resigning after losing the support of parties in the governing coalition. This will hit Italian…

Political positioning has already begun ahead of Italy’s parliamentary elections next Spring. After a long-running feud within Italy’s Five Star…

Global

8th June, 2022 » The broken plate

The world will continue to split along Cold War lines – economically, culturally, technologically and scientifically. Inflation and recession risks…

Global

19th April, 2022 » Kinder egg

This report discusses the four key variables that lead us to be: 1.Long agricultural commodities, gold and strategic metals; 2.Long…

Global

15th March, 2022 » New world (dis)order

What will the post-conflict world look like? What lies beyond the immediate “Warcession” discussed yesterday? This short piece describes the…

Europe

14th March, 2022 » Warcession

The EU authorities are in denial. This is bad for equities, north-south EU bond spreads, high-yield bonds and the euro.…

Global

7th March, 2022 » The war logic

Equity markets are likely to continue to go lower. The US dollar will be stronger. Commodity prices will stay high.…

China

3rd March, 2022 » Behind the arras

China’s “twin sessions” of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference…

Russia

23rd February, 2022 » Putin’s primer

Our Russia hedges (long energy, agricultural commodities and gold, short bonds, equities (EU focused etc.) have worked well. A market…

Russia

20th February, 2022 » From Russia with War

Mostly and most investors view geopolitical events as of little relevance to economies and markets. In the case (60% probability)…

Global

14th February, 2022 » More agro

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues to support…

Global

14th February, 2022 » Notes to myself

Four things in case I forget… Russia, the structural demand shift to manufactured goods, synchronised monetary tightening and Covid. All…

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