Independent Strategy

A short history of the future

This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better are those where behaviour reverts to pre-Covid patterns, savings rates are high, policy was effective and where manufacturing (rather than services) is a relatively large proportion of output. Nevertheless, the pandemic has resulted in a massive transfer of income and assets from the state to corporations and households and the biggest ever incurrence of liabilities by the state. This will have long-lasting effects and sets the parameters for recovery.

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