Independent Strategy

A short paper on everything

About this economic recovery, four things strike. First, services (“intangibles”) are ticking along nicely, but manufacturing is a disaster. Second, developed markets (DMs) are doing fine. Emerging markets (EMs) are dogs. This is because DMs are service-producing economies. EMs are mainly factory economies and/or commodity/energy producers. Third, international trade in things (“tangibles”) is shrinking for the first time since the financial crisis. Fourth, as the global stock of debt keeps rising as a proportion of GDP, its use is increasingly unproductive, especially in EMs.

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