Independent Strategy

A trade deal for dummies

Trump’s ‘Phase 1’ trade deal isn’t the concrete base to build the 2020s on. It’s a short-term deal that fits with the near-term political objectives of the US administration and the immediate economic needs of the Chinese one. The underlying frictions that triggered the conflict are deep-seated. The secondary trade frictions that are likely to arise because of this deal also risk creating a deeper global macro/growth fissure, when China/US tensions inevitably flare up again.

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