Independent Strategy

Addicted to stuff

People obsess about post-Covid debt. But the reality, as the pandemic begins to wane, is that private sector balance sheets (in aggregate) are healthy. They’ve been boosted by forced savings and buoyant asset prices. Fed up of doing nothing, people are itching to spend. The government is not shirking either. Demand will show up everywhere, higher external deficits, higher corporate profits but also higher prices. In fact we haven’t seen conditions like this since the late 1980s. We remain long US dollar and short US Treasuries.

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