Independent Strategy

Beginning of the end?

The ZAR and South African assets underprice the risk of what is to come – and not by a little. The ANC political monolith which held the core of society stable at the cost of economic rot and institutionalized corruption is over. The question is whether it will end in a month or a year.  There is little to replace it except failed statehood and currency freefall.  It costs about 1% a month to short the ZAR. It will be a minimum of 30% lower in a year. It has only fallen against the USD by 2.6% since the election.

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