Independent Strategy

Brexit – not with a bang but a whimper

Report Date:  28th December, 2020

The Brexit deal is a major economic negative for the UK. The cost will become progressively apparent rather than result in any immediate crisis. The rejoicing in UK asset markets will not last long. We are putting on a new short sterling / long Norwegian krone position with a target of 10.50 (today 11.68). This position sidesteps the EU structural risks that could reassert themselves within 12 months.

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