Calculus on a kitchen table

Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will split along pro- and anti-euro (and European) fault lines. We try to be neither. In the short term, meaning anything up to a year, it is likely this programme will mean an existential euro crisis is avoided. Expectations are being positively affected. This will play out in better economic results and the marginalisation of populists. On balance we would remain short euro and long gold (rather than the US dollar). But our time frame is now one year, not six months.

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