Independent Strategy

Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia. But there are some positive signs. This, alongside recent market turbulence, has checked central bank enthusiasm for tightening. That’s taken the boot off the neck of risk assets. Furthermore, despite the threat of ‘trade wars’, it seems that a deal between the US and China is in the offing. Add in a dose of Chinese stimulus and there looks to be at least one last leg before the global cycle finally exhausts.

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