Independent Strategy

Common crises and un-common causes

Current supply-chain disruptions, the “new transient”, are caused by imbalances in the global economy. These imbalances are embedded by Covid, which is now a Permademic rather than a Pandemic. The investment outcome will be higher bond yields and rising agricultural commodity, crypto asset, and gold prices. The US dollar will continue to benefit in the short term from Fed policy. Equity markets believe that inflation and supply-chain disruptions are temporary and that central banks will continue to run soft. They will be wrong on at least two out of three assumptions.

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