Independent Strategy

Views Reports by Country

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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China

15th August, 2023 » Debt inflation

China’s property sector implosion is worsening and credit growth is falling. The economy is entering a debt deflation trap. We…

China

6th December, 2022 » China’s Covid easing

China’s zero-Covid policy has reached its limits. The intention is gradually to relax restrictions while efforts to improve vaccination rates,…

China

25th August, 2022 » The China conundrum

China’s debt problems persist and are increasingly evident in the housing market. While this is unlikely to lead to immediate…

China

3rd March, 2022 » Behind the arras

China’s “twin sessions” of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference…

China

4th October, 2021 » Beyond Evergrande

Evergrande might be insolvent, but its liabilities look digestible for the many mouths of the Chinese state. Clamping down on…

China

23rd July, 2020 » No capital fright

Capital flight continues from China. This isn’t new and it’s really not a problem, despite the perception that this is…

China

26th April, 2019 » , , Trade thunks

We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.

China

4th April, 2019 » The Iceman Cometh?

People are always keen to write off China. Its authoritarian regime has built up malinvestments and debt beyond that of any other emerging economy, both in nominal terms and as a share of GDP. Even its GDP is often deemed to be over-inflated. But we are not on the cusp of a collapse. For a start, China’s financial system still has relatively closed circuitry, with the money being owed mostly by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to state-owned banks, meaning relatively modest connectivity to the wider world.

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