ECB interest rates are to stay high (but not higher) for a long (but not longer) time.
Views Reports by Country
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
What will Europe and the world look like in a decade? It will be a safer place. Equities will perform…
There’s an important change in political trajectory in Europe. So-called extremist parties are gaining power and office in Europe’s governments.…
The ECB raised rates by 50bp for all its instruments. It was a contested majority decision. The financial stability mandate…
The euro has bottomed. Our target is $1.12-1.15 next year. This is as much due to the US dollar peaking…
The ECB raised its policy rates by 75bp, but made no change to the reinvestment of bonds maturing on its…
Global central banks face risks in trying to shrink their balance sheets. This report looks at this issue in an…
At yesterday’s monetary policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked all three of its policy rates (including the deposit…
It is unlikely the EU will run out of gas in winter. It means Putin’s stranglehold on EU energy is…
Against the consensus, we reckon that the EU may well have enough gas supply over the coming winter and beyond…
We no longer recommend being short Italian or other southern Eurozone government bonds.
Russia plans to cut gas supply to the EU through NordStream 1 (NS1) back to 20% tomorrow. This is sooner…
It is unlikely that the ECB’s new policy tool, TPI (or Transmission Protection Instrument), will change the fate of the…
The ECB, faced with any threat of EU fragmentation, has stated that it has the resources and can create the…
The ad-hoc ECB meeting on widening yield spreads posed many questions.
The EU authorities are in denial. This is bad for equities, north-south EU bond spreads, high-yield bonds and the euro.…
We have cut our short euro versus long US dollar position. We remain short bonds across developed markets.
Global assets remain highly correlated, but it seems we are on the cusp of a more significant divergence in monetary…
Today’s Governing Council meeting shows the ECB is steady as she goes. The reduction in the pace of purchases for…
President Lagarde seemed hopeful that the ECB’s new inflation framework was a positive step forward. But the policy response seems…
The thing you just can’t be neutral about is EU, Italian and Spanish restructuring plans. If these programmes succeed, we…
The ECB might not have changed policy rates or increased its QE programme, but the significance of yesterday’s policy tweaks…
The primary focus of the ECB remains on fostering a sustainable recovery. The current policy stance fits with that. And…
The long-awaited approval of the European Union Recovery Fund marks another seminal step towards closer European integration. Like all of…
Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will…
The immediate hit from Covid-19 is to society and to economic welfare. A significant longer-term issue will be how this…
Germany’s export-driven success leaves it highly vulnerable to changes in global trade flows. It’s also facing broad structural pressures. The…
The ongoing slump in German industrial activity isn’t likely to end soon. Many of the problems are structural and result…
The ECB’s latest stimulus package seeks to address several problems and does so quite neatly. Banks win, thanks to tiering…
