The EU authorities are in denial. This is bad for equities, north-south EU bond spreads, high-yield bonds and the euro.…
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We have cut our short euro versus long US dollar position. We remain short bonds across developed markets.
Global assets remain highly correlated, but it seems we are on the cusp of a more significant divergence in monetary…
Today’s Governing Council meeting shows the ECB is steady as she goes. The reduction in the pace of purchases for…
President Lagarde seemed hopeful that the ECB’s new inflation framework was a positive step forward. But the policy response seems…
The thing you just can’t be neutral about is EU, Italian and Spanish restructuring plans. If these programmes succeed, we…
The ECB might not have changed policy rates or increased its QE programme, but the significance of yesterday’s policy tweaks…
The primary focus of the ECB remains on fostering a sustainable recovery. The current policy stance fits with that. And…
The long-awaited approval of the European Union Recovery Fund marks another seminal step towards closer European integration. Like all of…
Opinion about the “next generation EU”, announced by the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 May, will…
The immediate hit from Covid-19 is to society and to economic welfare. A significant longer-term issue will be how this…
Germany’s export-driven success leaves it highly vulnerable to changes in global trade flows. It’s also facing broad structural pressures. The…
The ongoing slump in German industrial activity isn’t likely to end soon. Many of the problems are structural and result…
The ECB’s latest stimulus package seeks to address several problems and does so quite neatly. Banks win, thanks to tiering…
