The ECB’s adjustment to its inflation targeting framework will require an ‘easier for longer’ policy stance. It might even necessitate…
Views Reports by Country
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Faltering growth and undershooting inflation expose the contradictions of the ECB’s current policy approach. Despite Draghi’s insistence, they remain well…
Europe is suffering from a noxious combination of slowing growth and rising political risk. It also has a central bank…
The ECB has a fine line to tread, since its forward guidance is out of kilter with the slowdown in…
Europe’s debt crisis led to some meaningful banking sector reforms. Efforts to recapitalise and improve balance sheets by disposing of…
While the approval of the German coalition deal is a positive step for European integration, the uncertainty thrown up by…
The evolution of German coalition discussions leaves us more optimistic on a pro-European outcome. While we don’t expect an immediate…
The surprise collapse of German coalition negotiations leaves Chancellor Merkel stranded. She is now faced with trying to forge ahead…
ECB monetary policy will remain easier for longer, which means an extension of the asset purchase programme (APP) while maintaining…
Spanish PM Rajoy has miscalculated in Catalonia. The independence genie can’t be recorked. This adds a new layer of political…
Politics rarely defines market trends, but it does alter risks in the shorter term. There is a clutch present in…
The CDU’s share of the vote may have shrunk but it remains the dominant party in Germany. This leaves Merkel…
Emmanuel Macron will become the next French president. He will have unfettered power to relaunch the EU with Germany post…
Our positive view of the Eurozone is predicated upon the rejection of populism in pending EU elections. The political developments…
It is easy to be pessimistic about the future of the EU. But disaster is not inevitable. There are several…
Eurozone bond yields continue to lag the improvement seen across the economy and the improvement in the global inflation outlook.…
While we don’t think we’re on the cusp of persistently fast Eurozone inflation, the ECB’s price forecasts materially understate the…
Europe faces key elections this year. Uncertainty about the outcomes with the possibility of populist parties winning is driving up…
The “precautionary recapitalisation” of Monte dei Paschi should remove the Italian banking sector’s problems from the front pages for the…
The anger vote has claimed its next victim — Italian reform. The dominoes of Brexit, Trump and now Italy (but…
The outcome of the Italian referendum is binary. If it’s a ‘yes’ vote the tide of populism throughout Europe would…
It’s another reason to stay short Italian bonds. We also add a short position in Irish bonds. Ireland managed to…
There is no simple fix to Deutsche Bank’s problems. Really they are just an oversized example of the structural frailties…
There are five options for the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU once it has left. There is the…
Although the polls continue to suggest the UK’s in/out referendum is too close to call, we maintain the view that…
Draghi’s rhetoric only goes so far. The ECB is failing to meet its inflation mandate by an increasing margin. The…
While the market may have been underwhelmed by the latest ECB policy steps, Draghi’s programme will remain a powerful headwind…
If you thought that the “resolution” of the Greek bailout crisis in the summer would give the EU project breathing…
The fall of Portugal’s minority centre-right government is significant. It takes place in the face of a generalised rise in…
A Greek deal is now more likely (60% probability from 40%). It is likely to be based on poor economics…
Turkish and Greek developments and potential negative outcomes leave Europe with a rotten south eastern border, constituted by two NATO…
Eurozone (EZ) monetary policy is finally delivering as the effects of earlier rate cuts, ongoing asset purchases and the weaker…
The structure of the ECB’s QE programme confirms our short euro versus long US dollar position. We also maintain our…
In Europe, the most lasting legacy of the financial crisis looks set to be the change in the political landscape…
Eurozone data continues to surprise on the positive side, a theme that should persist over the first half of the…
Despite the challenges of deflation, the ECB looks to have been relatively successful in easing monetary conditions in the Eurozone.…
The ECB’s QE package delivered. It was bigger than expected, broad in range and for a kicker the TLTRO terms…
Although the Eurozone (EZ) current account surplus is moving higher, the flows on the capital account side are negative. The…
The ECB is set to introduce ‘full blown’ quantitative easing (QE) early in 2015. Other methods of credit injections will…
