Independent Strategy

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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Global

1st April, 2021 » Addicted to stuff  NEW

People obsess about post-Covid debt. But the reality, as the pandemic begins to wane, is that private sector balance sheets…

Global

3rd March, 2021 » How things connect

Policy normalisation is a great post-Covid challenge. It will be forced on policy makers by markets, rather than being an…

Global

16th February, 2021 » Herding cats

Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless…

Global

29th January, 2021 » Vaccine wars

Equities are the most vulnerable asset class to vaccine wars. The euro is perhaps the most vulnerable rich-country currency. All…

Global

18th January, 2021 » More Covid bore

Markets care about stimulus but not much about Covid. They look through the Covid data. But this is wrong. Covid…

Special Report: Commodities

18th January, 2021 » Special Report: CommoditiesBuying food

The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture supports our long position in wheat. There is further upside…

Global

13th January, 2021 » Surprise surprise

There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…

Global

15th December, 2020 » Quantum economics

David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how…

Global

13th October, 2020 » Dodging icebergs

A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…

Global

12th October, 2020 » Towards the credit void

The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…

Global

25th September, 2020 » Biding time

Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…

Global

18th August, 2020 » Pause

Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…

Global

9th June, 2020 » The hand of god

The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…

Global

22nd May, 2020 » The bell tolls

The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…

Global

19th May, 2020 » The bore

In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…

Special Report: Commodities

22nd April, 2020 » Special Report: CommoditiesFighting the wrong fight

Even in times of great uncertainty, obvious things still happen. Shuttering much of the global economy crushed demand. That was…

Global

20th April, 2020 » The last light

It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…

Global

6th April, 2020 » War and pieces

War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…

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