Independent Strategy

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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Global

22nd May, 2020 » The bell tolls  NEW

The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…

Global

19th May, 2020 » The bore  NEW

In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…

Special Report: Commodities

22nd April, 2020 » Special Report: CommoditiesFighting the wrong fight

Even in times of great uncertainty, obvious things still happen. Shuttering much of the global economy crushed demand. That was…

Global

20th April, 2020 » The last light

It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…

Global

6th April, 2020 » War and pieces

War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…

Global

30th March, 2020 » War horse

Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…

Special Report: Commodities

9th March, 2020 » Special Report: CommoditiesA crude way to double down

We are shifting currency investments because of the collapse in the oil price which, coming on top of Covid-19, is…

Global

16th December, 2019 » Cold water

The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…

Global

26th August, 2019 » La Rentree

Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…

Global

5th June, 2019 » Duller dollar

Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening…

Global

23rd May, 2019 » Horse trading

The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…

China

26th April, 2019 » , , Trade thunks

We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.

Global

10th April, 2019 » Much ado about nothing?

The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.

Global

6th March, 2019 » Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.

There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies.

Global

14th February, 2019 » Tight-anic

Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

11th January, 2019 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaEnd of the ICE age

There have been various points of blame for weak auto sales. The most under-appreciated input has been technological innovation, as…

Global

18th December, 2018 » Star Wars

America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict…

In the Media