There are two kinds of inflation. One comes from imported inflation. The other happens when inflation spreads to domestic sectors.…
Views Reports by Country
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Having removed our longstanding longs in grains in July (Food, the war commodity, 14 July 2022) after the agreement between…
The deciders NEW
This report is about reconciling the historical predictors of doom with the concept of what could go right. It introduces…
We reduced our longs in grains last month following the agreement between Russia and Ukraine to allow the shipment of…
The announcement of a provisional agreement negotiated between Ukraine and Russia to resume the export of Ukrainian grain blocked by…
Russia has its finger on the trigger aimed at the economic heart of whomever takes measures against it – however…
The EU Initiative on Gas Storage, published overnight, misses the point that the issue is not storage but where the…
The next big shock generated by Russia may be gas. It could come from Russia cutting deliveries to the EU…
In a world of rising interest rates and tightening liquidity that is hitting equity and bond markets, commodities remain a…
Our forecast is that the world will avoid outright recession (though the EU is prone to ‘Warcession’). There are three…
The world will continue to split along Cold War lines – economically, culturally, technologically and scientifically. Inflation and recession risks…
The world economy is conflicted by variables that will slow growth and headline inflation. But not enough to make bonds…
By any measure, grain and oilseed supplies are going to be justifiably tight for at least another year, particularly if…
There are three spectres of recession stalking the globe. Fed tightening; Zero-Covid disruption; and the war in Ukraine. All three…
The dialogue about Ukraine is set to widen to include the issue of economic resources and how they will be…
The shifting goals of war will not produce stability, reduced sanctions or Russian withdrawals. They will produce a long drawn-out…
This report discusses the four key variables that lead us to be: 1.Long agricultural commodities, gold and strategic metals; 2.Long…
Warcession is not like stagflation. This report analyses the difference. Warcession is most likely to hit the EU first and…
The discovery of Russian army atrocities in Ukraine lifts us to a new plane of war and for longer. We…
Diminishing the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will be gradual. Autocracies will accelerate their efforts to escape…
There has been no shift in our view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since April last year (see our…
While the EU Council of Ministers meeting is ongoing, what we know so far from the G7/NATO and EU response…
In our recent piece (New world (dis)order) we mapped a post-conflict global economy which had a bigger state sector, low…
The Fed delivered as expected and promised six 25bps hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year. There was only…
What will the post-conflict world look like? What lies beyond the immediate “Warcession” discussed yesterday? This short piece describes the…
Equity markets are likely to continue to go lower. The US dollar will be stronger. Commodity prices will stay high.…
One of the more interesting phenomena of our ‘inflationary world’ is the fact that market-priced inflation expectations remain relatively well…
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues to support…
Four things in case I forget… Russia, the structural demand shift to manufactured goods, synchronised monetary tightening and Covid. All…
More than 90% of the world’s transoceanic data traffic travels in cables at the bottom of the sea. Satellites carry…
Two visions describe where we are. “The sun shone, having no alternative, on nothing new.” And “We are closed in,…
As I write on December 29, the answer is not clear.
This piece brings together information about Omicron and supply-side disruptions. It finds the two are inextricably linked. Covid will continue…
One of the best ways in quantum physics to explain a particle’s behaviour is to take a dice and spin…
With both the Fed and the ECB ending the year with tapering in mind, it might seem that the monetary…
Christmas mines images from childhood. There is one in my mind that is more like Chirico than Santa. The colours…
The big consensus new year forecasts are published: 61.3 pages each on average for the five that I have read.…
The B.1.1.529 virus has been designated a Covid-19 variant of concern with the name Omicron. Our investment take is that…
As fossil fuel production is reduced over the next generation, the electrification of the planet will mean a massive increase…
“Transitory” is fast becoming code for complacency. We know much of the current inflation shock is driven by specific factors…
The first Biden-Xi summit does not change our views on Chinese assets. We are not invested in Chinese equities or…
Current supply-chain disruptions, the “new transient”, are caused by imbalances in the global economy. These imbalances are embedded by Covid,…
The trend toward lower Covid infections has reversed. The reality is that the Pandemic is becoming a “Permademic” that will…
This, final for me, chapter on Quantum Economics completes the preceding trilogy (Quantum economics, The truth to tell and My…
Moderation of container costs and port congestion continued in latest seven days — albeit slightly — and the level remains…
Covid data analysis (latest 7 days)
The Glasgow Climate Conference will fail in its task. But there are regions and sectors that will combat climate change.…
Supply-chain disruptions have many “local” causes but they generate global crises. Many are durable. They seem to have come together…
Current stress points in the global economy, like supply-side disruptions, have idiosyncratic causes but all point in one direction: the…
Cyberwarfare remains a significantly underappreciated threat. Its dangers are numerous, even absent of a full-blown conflict between the major powers.…
