Independent Strategy

Views Reports by Country

The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.

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Global

1st April, 2020 » Covid and cash flow  NEW

Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…

Global

30th March, 2020 » War horse  NEW

Fighting them on the beaches is different when the invisible enemy is little purple and red Covid blobs with spiky…

Global

24th March, 2020 » Before reality sets in  NEW

The economic shock from Covid-19 is being underestimated. This is natural when the immediate priority is safeguarding human life. This…

Global

16th December, 2019 » Cold water

The removal of uncertainties is always good for a short-term market boost. But it’s often better to travel than arrive.…

Global

26th August, 2019 » La Rentree

Nothing in recent events has mellowed our views on the risks facing the global economy. The China/US trade conflict is…

Global

5th June, 2019 » Duller dollar

Expectations for easier US monetary policy are taking the wind from the dollar’s sails. These market changes reflect the worsening…

Global

23rd May, 2019 » Horse trading

The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…

China

26th April, 2019 » , , Trade thunks

We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.

Global

10th April, 2019 » Much ado about nothing?

The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.

Global

6th March, 2019 » Capital punishment?

Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.

There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies.

Global

14th February, 2019 » Tight-anic

Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

11th January, 2019 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaEnd of the ICE age

There have been various points of blame for weak auto sales. The most under-appreciated input has been technological innovation, as…

Global

18th December, 2018 » Star Wars

America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict…

Special Report: Umbrella Idea

3rd August, 2018 » Special Report: Umbrella IdeaTechnology – saviour or curse?

It’s undeniable that we’re living in an epoch of technological transformation. And one that is unprecedented in history. With the…

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