The world economy is conflicted by variables that will slow growth and headline inflation. But not enough to make bonds…
Views Reports by Country
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By any measure, grain and oilseed supplies are going to be justifiably tight for at least another year, particularly if…
There are three spectres of recession stalking the globe. Fed tightening; Zero-Covid disruption; and the war in Ukraine. All three…
The cost of War NEW
The dialogue about Ukraine is set to widen to include the issue of economic resources and how they will be…
The shifting goals of war will not produce stability, reduced sanctions or Russian withdrawals. They will produce a long drawn-out…
This report discusses the four key variables that lead us to be: 1.Long agricultural commodities, gold and strategic metals; 2.Long…
Warcession is not like stagflation. This report analyses the difference. Warcession is most likely to hit the EU first and…
The discovery of Russian army atrocities in Ukraine lifts us to a new plane of war and for longer. We…
Diminishing the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will be gradual. Autocracies will accelerate their efforts to escape…
There has been no shift in our view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since April last year (see our…
While the EU Council of Ministers meeting is ongoing, what we know so far from the G7/NATO and EU response…
In our recent piece (New world (dis)order) we mapped a post-conflict global economy which had a bigger state sector, low…
The Fed delivered as expected and promised six 25bps hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year. There was only…
What will the post-conflict world look like? What lies beyond the immediate “Warcession” discussed yesterday? This short piece describes the…
Equity markets are likely to continue to go lower. The US dollar will be stronger. Commodity prices will stay high.…
One of the more interesting phenomena of our ‘inflationary world’ is the fact that market-priced inflation expectations remain relatively well…
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues to support…
Four things in case I forget… Russia, the structural demand shift to manufactured goods, synchronised monetary tightening and Covid. All…
More than 90% of the world’s transoceanic data traffic travels in cables at the bottom of the sea. Satellites carry…
Two visions describe where we are. “The sun shone, having no alternative, on nothing new.” And “We are closed in,…
As I write on December 29, the answer is not clear.
This piece brings together information about Omicron and supply-side disruptions. It finds the two are inextricably linked. Covid will continue…
One of the best ways in quantum physics to explain a particle’s behaviour is to take a dice and spin…
With both the Fed and the ECB ending the year with tapering in mind, it might seem that the monetary…
Christmas mines images from childhood. There is one in my mind that is more like Chirico than Santa. The colours…
The big consensus new year forecasts are published: 61.3 pages each on average for the five that I have read.…
The B.1.1.529 virus has been designated a Covid-19 variant of concern with the name Omicron. Our investment take is that…
As fossil fuel production is reduced over the next generation, the electrification of the planet will mean a massive increase…
“Transitory” is fast becoming code for complacency. We know much of the current inflation shock is driven by specific factors…
The first Biden-Xi summit does not change our views on Chinese assets. We are not invested in Chinese equities or…
Current supply-chain disruptions, the “new transient”, are caused by imbalances in the global economy. These imbalances are embedded by Covid,…
The trend toward lower Covid infections has reversed. The reality is that the Pandemic is becoming a “Permademic” that will…
This, final for me, chapter on Quantum Economics completes the preceding trilogy (Quantum economics, The truth to tell and My…
Moderation of container costs and port congestion continued in latest seven days — albeit slightly — and the level remains…
Covid data analysis (latest 7 days)
The Glasgow Climate Conference will fail in its task. But there are regions and sectors that will combat climate change.…
Supply-chain disruptions have many “local” causes but they generate global crises. Many are durable. They seem to have come together…
Current stress points in the global economy, like supply-side disruptions, have idiosyncratic causes but all point in one direction: the…
Cyberwarfare remains a significantly underappreciated threat. Its dangers are numerous, even absent of a full-blown conflict between the major powers.…
Disruption of supply chains will have significant effects on current global growth, inflation and equity margins. But it goes beyond…
Often a good strategist is seen as someone who can knit together a good story out of random variables and…
The fall of Kabul raises questions about Biden’s competence and increases the chance that this will be a one-term Democratic…
The Afghan disaster is likely to mark the start of the collapse in the credibility of the Biden administration. There…
Hope, hype and then the reality is the best way to think about the IPCC report. Aside from some tougher…
The Saw Tooth recovery created by the pandemic generates demand at different rates in different areas at different times. This…
Poor political decision-making has allowed the Covid-19 Delta variant to get a foothold among un-vaccinated groups. These still make up…
While the spread of the Delta variant is concentrated in healthy young adults in the developed economies, and vaccination coverage…
This is about the shape of the economic cycle. The pandemic has created a new cycle: the ‘saw tooth’. We…
Headline data suggest the European pandemic experience entailed far more economic damage than seen in the US. Indeed, US GDP…
The Fed wake-up call was an event long awaited and long foreseen. But market response was not as I thought.…
