Sovereign bond issuance this year will not be a factor in determining bond prices. It’s the demand side that will…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
This report looks beyond the cyclical to the secular and poses the question: “Is this the start of the post-growth…
Step on the gas NEW
We are long oil. The oil price is likely to get to USD120/bbl by mid-2023 and average USD140 bbl in…
The liberal democracies are not arming Ukraine to win this war outright. The most likely outcome is a long war…
The latest planned shipment of weapons to Ukraine does not change the equation that we are not arming Kyiv to…
Our key positions to start 2023 are: Long JPY, oil and agro commodities. Short US treasuries and JGBs. Selective on…
It is unlikely this visit will deliver what is needed. The offensive weapons Ukraine needs to win this war are…
There are two dumb deals, but important ones: 1) the BoJ decision to raise the target band for JGB yields…
The Fed, the ECB, and the BoE all increased their policy interest rates by 50bp. That was as expected. Relative…
Wandering through Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, China, Iran, Russia, the EU and the future: reconstruction for Ukraine; Saudi-China alliance; China’s COVID…
The G7+Australia price cap on Russian oil shipments at $60/bbl is a joke. It leaves Russia with almost unchanged revenues.
The coming meeting of the leaders of China and Saudi Arabia heralds the sort of alliance that will deepen world…
It was not a total copout, but nearly. The COP27 conference achieved one breakthrough: an agreement to set up a…
The COP27 climate conference in Egypt is the last chance saloon for governments and agents to get their act together…
We are adding long oil to the portfolio again. This report explains why. Russia will disrupt the oil market rather…
The Russians have halted the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Shipment Agreement following the Ukrainian attack on the Russian Black Sea…
The latest USDA world aggregate supply and demand estimates (WASDE) for grain suggest further upside in prices over the winter.…
Germany went off and did its own thing, rather than the EU thing, in its new gas and electricity “Third…
This is to summarise our main strategy positions.
There are two kinds of inflation. One comes from imported inflation. The other happens when inflation spreads to domestic sectors.…
Having removed our longstanding longs in grains in July (Food, the war commodity, 14 July 2022) after the agreement between…
This report is about reconciling the historical predictors of doom with the concept of what could go right. It introduces…
We reduced our longs in grains last month following the agreement between Russia and Ukraine to allow the shipment of…
The announcement of a provisional agreement negotiated between Ukraine and Russia to resume the export of Ukrainian grain blocked by…
Russia has its finger on the trigger aimed at the economic heart of whomever takes measures against it – however…
The EU Initiative on Gas Storage, published overnight, misses the point that the issue is not storage but where the…
The next big shock generated by Russia may be gas. It could come from Russia cutting deliveries to the EU…
In a world of rising interest rates and tightening liquidity that is hitting equity and bond markets, commodities remain a…
Our forecast is that the world will avoid outright recession (though the EU is prone to ‘Warcession’). There are three…
The world will continue to split along Cold War lines – economically, culturally, technologically and scientifically. Inflation and recession risks…
The world economy is conflicted by variables that will slow growth and headline inflation. But not enough to make bonds…
By any measure, grain and oilseed supplies are going to be justifiably tight for at least another year, particularly if…
There are three spectres of recession stalking the globe. Fed tightening; Zero-Covid disruption; and the war in Ukraine. All three…
The dialogue about Ukraine is set to widen to include the issue of economic resources and how they will be…
The shifting goals of war will not produce stability, reduced sanctions or Russian withdrawals. They will produce a long drawn-out…
This report discusses the four key variables that lead us to be: 1.Long agricultural commodities, gold and strategic metals; 2.Long…
Warcession is not like stagflation. This report analyses the difference. Warcession is most likely to hit the EU first and…
The discovery of Russian army atrocities in Ukraine lifts us to a new plane of war and for longer. We…
Diminishing the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will be gradual. Autocracies will accelerate their efforts to escape…
There has been no shift in our view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since April last year (see our…
While the EU Council of Ministers meeting is ongoing, what we know so far from the G7/NATO and EU response…
In our recent piece (New world (dis)order) we mapped a post-conflict global economy which had a bigger state sector, low…
The Fed delivered as expected and promised six 25bps hikes in the Fed Funds rate this year. There was only…
What will the post-conflict world look like? What lies beyond the immediate “Warcession” discussed yesterday? This short piece describes the…
Equity markets are likely to continue to go lower. The US dollar will be stronger. Commodity prices will stay high.…
One of the more interesting phenomena of our ‘inflationary world’ is the fact that market-priced inflation expectations remain relatively well…
The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues to support…
Four things in case I forget… Russia, the structural demand shift to manufactured goods, synchronised monetary tightening and Covid. All…
More than 90% of the world’s transoceanic data traffic travels in cables at the bottom of the sea. Satellites carry…
Two visions describe where we are. “The sun shone, having no alternative, on nothing new.” And “We are closed in,…
