Poor political decision-making has allowed the Covid-19 Delta variant to get a foothold among un-vaccinated groups. These still make up…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Ready or not NEW
While the spread of the Delta variant is concentrated in healthy young adults in the developed economies, and vaccination coverage…
Saw tooth NEW
This is about the shape of the economic cycle. The pandemic has created a new cycle: the ‘saw tooth’. We…
Headline data suggest the European pandemic experience entailed far more economic damage than seen in the US. Indeed, US GDP…
The Fed wake-up call was an event long awaited and long foreseen. But market response was not as I thought.…
While the green revolution continues to gather steam, there is still a high degree of procrastination going on. The radical…
We have been long agricultural commodities (corn, wheat, soyabeans) since 18 January 2021 (see our report Buying food). Prices have…
Some things are clear. Lasting stimulus, particularly in the US, will keep demand above what the supply-side was traditionally capable…
It may be useful to set down our major recommendations and how they have changed recently. We have switched on…
“It’s true that hard work never killed anybody, but I figure, why take the chance?” Ronald Reagan apparently once quipped.…
The dollar’s relatively better poise over the first quarter looks to be over. Bidenomics and the US money printing this…
The surge in US April inflation is not a one-off but reflects the rekindling of inflation. This has significant investment…
As vaccination rates in advanced nations move them closer to herd immunity and their economies fully reopen — at least…
We divide our long currency portfolio into two categories: the “Laggards” who should normalise policy but won’t (US dollar, British…
This summarises our strategic positions. Perhaps it could be more aptly named the ‘bare bones of it’. Because bearish I…
“Oh Wonder! How many goodly creatures are there here! How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world that has such…
This is the fourth thing (outlined in this week’s reports) that will shape our world … and of course investments.…
Four things (outlined in this week’s reports) will shape our world … and of course investments. We now head to…
Four things (outlined in this week’s reports) will shape our world … and of course investments. Here our viewpoint moves…
“Time present and time past Are both perhaps present in time future, And time future contained in time past.” T.…
The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) between the EU and China looks to be dead in the water. This will…
The EU’s Next Generation Fund (NGEU), a significant step in EU fiscal integration, is under threat from the German Constitutional…
People obsess about post-Covid debt. But the reality, as the pandemic begins to wane, is that private sector balance sheets…
Covid policy prescriptions have certainly held equity markets up. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the valuations the market has placed…
There is a problem that has been amplified by Covid-19. And it is one that is likely to prove longer-lasting…
The gap between high and low Covid-19 vaccination countries will be the main determinant of economic performance this year. But…
Environmental degradation is difficult to stop because there is no upfront cost from delivering destruction. The short-term driver is always…
The Covid crisis forced European policy makers into providing unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. This is set to continue amid…
Policy normalisation is a great post-Covid challenge. It will be forced on policy makers by markets, rather than being an…
Economies will overheat. Worst in the US (but UK and Australia in tow). This will start a two year equity…
Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless…
We have been long copper this year, as the quick economic recovery in China boosted global demand, while the Covid…
The thought occurred to me that it is very odd the way Covid has been evolving. The news abounds about…
You may remember that a person from Porlock interrupted Coleridge’s composition of the oneiric poem Kubla Khan. My person from…
Equities are the most vulnerable asset class to vaccine wars. The euro is perhaps the most vulnerable rich-country currency. All…
Bitcoin and its ilk are loved and loathed. In many eyes these are fabricated assets and hold only fictional value.…
Markets care about stimulus but not much about Covid. They look through the Covid data. But this is wrong. Covid…
The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture supports our long position in wheat. There is further upside…
There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…
A short while ago Quantum Economics was written (15 December 2020). It sparked numerous conversations and comments from clients, commentators…
David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how…
The extensive support provided by monetary and fiscal policy marks this crisis as a very different one for the banks.…
The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors…
The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro…
We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to…
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not…
A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…
The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…
Covid has caused plenty of economic pain across the world, but we have not seen much sign of specific Emerging…
Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…
