The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) between the EU and China looks to be dead in the water. This will…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
The EU’s Next Generation Fund (NGEU), a significant step in EU fiscal integration, is under threat from the German Constitutional…
People obsess about post-Covid debt. But the reality, as the pandemic begins to wane, is that private sector balance sheets…
Covid policy prescriptions have certainly held equity markets up. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the valuations the market has placed…
There is a problem that has been amplified by Covid-19. And it is one that is likely to prove longer-lasting…
The gap between high and low Covid-19 vaccination countries will be the main determinant of economic performance this year. But…
Environmental degradation is difficult to stop because there is no upfront cost from delivering destruction. The short-term driver is always…
The Covid crisis forced European policy makers into providing unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. This is set to continue amid…
Policy normalisation is a great post-Covid challenge. It will be forced on policy makers by markets, rather than being an…
Economies will overheat. Worst in the US (but UK and Australia in tow). This will start a two year equity…
Putting all my asset allocation ideas together is just that: herding cats. They do not hang together with the seamless…
We have been long copper this year, as the quick economic recovery in China boosted global demand, while the Covid…
The thought occurred to me that it is very odd the way Covid has been evolving. The news abounds about…
You may remember that a person from Porlock interrupted Coleridge’s composition of the oneiric poem Kubla Khan. My person from…
Equities are the most vulnerable asset class to vaccine wars. The euro is perhaps the most vulnerable rich-country currency. All…
Bitcoin and its ilk are loved and loathed. In many eyes these are fabricated assets and hold only fictional value.…
Markets care about stimulus but not much about Covid. They look through the Covid data. But this is wrong. Covid…
The latest WASDE report by the US Department of Agriculture supports our long position in wheat. There is further upside…
There will rarely be a year when macro events hold greater sway. Our macro outlook: US 10-year Treasury yields will…
A short while ago Quantum Economics was written (15 December 2020). It sparked numerous conversations and comments from clients, commentators…
David Roche gives an introduction to our report “Quantum Economics”. This piece explores how Quantum Mechanics influences macroeconomics and how…
The extensive support provided by monetary and fiscal policy marks this crisis as a very different one for the banks.…
The investment message below is that we are long equities. Not forever. But for now. And we prefer cyclical sectors…
The vaccine news and the Biden presidency combined keep us positive on equities, negative on global bonds, neutral the euro…
We are taking off our long EUR, short USD position that we have held since June. We expect Biden to…
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are a reality; the timeframe for adoption is the uncertainty. Central bank involvement is not…
A Biden presidency wouldn’t exactly light up markets, but neither would it cause collapse. His election would still have some…
The public sector’s aggressive action prevented the Covid-crisis turning into another global financial crisis. But many of the remedies were…
Covid has caused plenty of economic pain across the world, but we have not seen much sign of specific Emerging…
Despite the bounce in the greenback over the past week, short US dollar and long euro and yen remain our…
Online product and service providers have been the main equity market winners so far this year. But the concentration of…
And so the deckchairs are folded in the garden shed, the beach towels ranged and fragrant in the hotpress and…
Our currency convictions are 1) short USD/long EUR; 2) short BRL, TRY, BRL, INR, IDR) v long EUR; plus 3)…
If you think of places as planets, Hong Kong is a very small planet indeed and China a big one…
We do have a V-shaped recovery. But there are two big “ifs”. What happens when the state bailouts end? And…
This report looks at where and how the economic recovery from Covid could be sustainable. Countries that will do better…
The pandemic might have shattered the economy and ushered in ever more aggressive interventionism from the monetary and fiscal authorities.…
It is something of a consensus view that equities are an inflation hedge. But this is only true if demand…
The financial crisis, subsequent Eurozone debt crisis and Japanese reflation (in name only) transformed the role of power money. Central…
We are cutting our long US dollar positions. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen from 99 to 97 in a…
The downturn in developed markets (DMs) will be savage, with no hint of the ‘V-shaped’ recoveries that were sold as…
The China-US cold war is upon us. It is unfolding as expected, but the pace is now accelerating. It means…
In January, during Chinese New Year, I had started writing about Covid-19 — warning clients of its potential to destroy.…
The measures being introduced by the US to control the export of technology to China have four qualities. They can…
We have set out our store a long time ago as regards the post Covid-19 macro setting and asset allocation:…
Even in times of great uncertainty, obvious things still happen. Shuttering much of the global economy crushed demand. That was…
It is striking how little is known, but how widespread is the conviction, that once the pandemic wanes things will…
The rates of Covid-19 new daily infections are starting to roll over. Over Easter globally there were around 70k new…
War horse (30 March 2020) sketched the architecture of a war economy versus a pandemic economy. This note goes further.…
Even before the Covid-19 crisis, about one quarter of US quoted corporations were cash flow negative. This is because they…
