The populists might get 30% of the vote in the European Parliamentary elections, but that will translate into just above…
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The reality is that the US woke up too late to the risk of China usurping them as the key…
By a narrow probability, it is likely that the US-China trade talks can be saved. But only just. The complacency…
We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.
Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
The slowdown in global growth has been accompanied by an inversion of the US yield curve — the one recession indicator that always enlivens markets. While statistically the curve is an excellent forecaster of downturns, there is much to suggest things might be a little different this time.
More than 12 years after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC) central banks do not feel able to…
Global activity is on the back foot. World trade has been weakening for months and the economic soft patch has turned into a more prolonged slowdown, certainly in Europe and Asia.
There is an assumption that demography is a slow-burn theme that can be filed away for the long term. But working age populations are already shrinking in many of the major economies.
Despite positive noises on wages from both the Fed and the ECB there is little sign we’re returning to the…
US equities have hugely outperformed their international peers over the long haul and other US financial assets in the short…
There have been various points of blame for weak auto sales. The most under-appreciated input has been technological innovation, as…
America’s trade conflict with China reflects two things. First, the angst of a declining US power. Second, the ego-centric conflict…
Unlike most geopolitical phenomena, populism is not a high-impact low-probability event. It is hard to run your life (or portfolio)…
The markets have been given two adrenalin shots to boost the Santa Claus rally: Fed Chairman Powell’s statement that the…
Global economic growth has peaked almost everywhere. This cancels most of our long-term fixed income shorts, with the exception of…
Globalisation was not a perfect process. While it hefted living standards emerging markets, the trade-off was a stagnation of incomes…
Despite Germany enjoying full employment, a budget surplus and generally solid economic performance, there is little faith in the grand…
We are going short the euro versus the Us dollar. And some investors may consider going long gold versus the…
The world is now a degree warmer on average than in pre-industrial times and at current linear (and thus possibly…
Millennials are a diverse bunch that share as many differences as they do similarities. Where comparisons are useful is in…
Stability in markets is often self-reinforcing but as the cycle tops out we start to see divergences. We seem to…
Turkey is bust and will get more so. However, with the risk of capital controls imminent, it is time to…
It’s undeniable that we’re living in an epoch of technological transformation. And one that is unprecedented in history. With the…
The reflation trade has taken on renewed urgency this year as the late-cycle fiscal stimulus delivered by the White House…
Democracy is under attack. This calls into question the global leadership of the world’s most significant rich economies. From within…
The merits of our carry trade basket have faded over the past 12 months. There remains a yield pick-up in…
Protectionism and the collapse of the business model of soft-tech giants is a bigger threat to global equity markets than…
Over the next decade or so, indigenous working-age populations in many advanced economies will begin to shrink. At the same…
A trade war cannot be won by anyone. Of course, the exporting country loses from a trade war. But so…
We believe that the major global determinants of secular inflation (globalisation, technology, demography) will continue to hold price growth down.…
A spike in market volatility isn’t surprising. But it’s not the start of a more pronounced meltdown. Markets will recover…
Our book Democrisis, foretold the atomisation of politics in the post-cold war period and the coming technological impact of the…
There seems to be almost universal acceptance that central banks have created a liquidity bubble. And the logic goes that,…
Demography is perhaps the single most important investment theme over the next half century. Many of its implications will begin…
Globalisation has been under assault. The loss of blue collar jobs has provided a captive audience for the anti-trade narrative…
While the mania for bitcoin continues unabated, it’s the technology underpinning this innovation — blockchain — that is the real…
When we wrote Of rabbits, bankers and what matters, 19 October 2017 we spoke of the factors that would set…
Central bankers’ reluctance to address the failings of their quantitative macro models (while overlooking the qualitative forces that are affecting…
Ultimately a nuclear North Korea is not acceptable. In the absence of a diplomatic miracle, the US will have to…
The news headlines on massively damaging hurricanes, floods and heat waves are almost daily. Extreme weather is now the norm.…
Europe is in the process of forging a new direction. This is a response to the realisation the European project…
Structural changes mean that inflation rates are likely to remain low. That makes it more challenging for central banks to…
Saudi Arabia has a brash young new crown prince who is directing economic and foreign policy. This will increase political…
There isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ model for populism. It’s hard to identify in advance why social pressures morph…
The US mainland is now potentially in range of North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal. Diplomacy is past its sell-by date,…
Nine years after the global financial crisis (GFC) most advanced economies have clambered above their pre-crisis peaks. But this disguises…
Novembers election of Donald Trump sparked the dollars last hurrah. Were now entering a weak dollar cycle. This is a…
Central banks have a good chance (80% or so) of controlling the reduction in their balance sheets and normalisation of…
Trump’s new foreign policy marks a seismic shift. It returns the US to its role as global policeman backed by…
