The merits of our carry trade basket have faded over the past 12 months. There remains a yield pick-up in…
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The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
Protectionism and the collapse of the business model of soft-tech giants is a bigger threat to global equity markets than…
Over the next decade or so, indigenous working-age populations in many advanced economies will begin to shrink. At the same…
A trade war cannot be won by anyone. Of course, the exporting country loses from a trade war. But so…
We believe that the major global determinants of secular inflation (globalisation, technology, demography) will continue to hold price growth down.…
A spike in market volatility isn’t surprising. But it’s not the start of a more pronounced meltdown. Markets will recover…
Our book Democrisis, foretold the atomisation of politics in the post-cold war period and the coming technological impact of the…
There seems to be almost universal acceptance that central banks have created a liquidity bubble. And the logic goes that,…
Demography is perhaps the single most important investment theme over the next half century. Many of its implications will begin…
Globalisation has been under assault. The loss of blue collar jobs has provided a captive audience for the anti-trade narrative…
While the mania for bitcoin continues unabated, it’s the technology underpinning this innovation — blockchain — that is the real…
When we wrote Of rabbits, bankers and what matters, 19 October 2017 we spoke of the factors that would set…
Central bankers’ reluctance to address the failings of their quantitative macro models (while overlooking the qualitative forces that are affecting…
Ultimately a nuclear North Korea is not acceptable. In the absence of a diplomatic miracle, the US will have to…
The news headlines on massively damaging hurricanes, floods and heat waves are almost daily. Extreme weather is now the norm.…
Europe is in the process of forging a new direction. This is a response to the realisation the European project…
Structural changes mean that inflation rates are likely to remain low. That makes it more challenging for central banks to…
Saudi Arabia has a brash young new crown prince who is directing economic and foreign policy. This will increase political…
There isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ model for populism. It’s hard to identify in advance why social pressures morph…
The US mainland is now potentially in range of North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal. Diplomacy is past its sell-by date,…
Nine years after the global financial crisis (GFC) most advanced economies have clambered above their pre-crisis peaks. But this disguises…
Novembers election of Donald Trump sparked the dollars last hurrah. Were now entering a weak dollar cycle. This is a…
Central banks have a good chance (80% or so) of controlling the reduction in their balance sheets and normalisation of…
Trump’s new foreign policy marks a seismic shift. It returns the US to its role as global policeman backed by…
Emerging markets rebounded from the 2014-15 commodity price collapse with varying degrees of success. Most were forced to hike interest…
The dollar’s multi-year bull run might last a couple more months but its fundamental underpinnings are weakening. President Trump’s unpredictability…
The trouble with President Trump is what he is. There is no need for a psychological portrait of the man.…
The reaction of financial markets to Trump’s election is explainable by expectations of tax cuts and rising fiscal spending. This…
Inflation is coming back. Will it boost corporate profits and investment, relieving the consumer of the burden of driving global…
Free capital, like free water, is never going to be used productively. So it should be no surprise that central…
It is time to take out insurance against a gradual ending of central bank largesse. Sovereign bond yield curve steepeners…
Robert Gordon’s gloomy hypothesis of perpetually slow economic growth looks credible at first glance, but on closer examination it is…
The global anger vote will have lasting effects on politics and, with it, the long-term economic outlook. It is reshaping…
The slow economic normalisation under way since the global financial crisis has been running hand in hand with another process.…
There are signs of life in DM demand after the spring soft patch. That provides some positive news for Asian…
This is one of those moments in history when politics matter as much as economics for financial markets. The rise…
The long US dollar trade has been a rather testing one so far this year. Weaker US growth and a…
Global equity markets are generally expensive. That’s because central bank largesse has inflated price (P). Meanwhile corporate profits (E) remain…
This paper discusses the fallout from a scenario called “stasis”. It would lead us to change many of our portfolio…
While central bankers sound dismissive when the question of helicopter money is raised, they were equally dismissive about NIRP. Deployment…
Low productivity growth has been a persistent feature since the Global Financial Crisis. Why? On balance our conclusion is that…
We are making two changes to our portfolio allocations. First, we are moving back to a short yen position. Second,…
As central bankers push on through the looking glass with NIRP, markets will have to pay closer attention to the…
Central bankers’ rhetoric often conveys a sense of omnipotence. But the evolution of the post-crisis economy clearly tells a different…
We are taking a strategic long gold position. The target return is 5-10% this year and a long-term gold price…
There is no change in our currency forecasts. But the way they’ll happen has shifted. Our biggest shorts remain EM…
The deterioration in equity markets this year should not come as a complete surprise, the problems are not new. We…
Disruptive technologies have always been the cause of economic strides. Manufacturing replaced the artisan. Electricity revolutionised industry. The train and…
We think that the US Fed will be forced to normalise policy because of tightening labour markets. This would mark…
About this economic recovery, four things strike. First, services (“intangibles”) are ticking along nicely, but manufacturing is a disaster. Second, developed markets…
