The Wagner group coup in Russia collapsed overnight. Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, has left the motherland for Lukashenko’s tender…
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This is definitely an attempted Prigozhin/Wagner coup against Shoigu and Gerasimov and indirectly Putin. Our view is that this coup…
Putin is a man down a hole who, instead of climbing out, just digs deeper. No more off ramps! De…
Anything that is bad for Putin’s Russia is good for the rest of us. This is likely to be the…
The Russian war in Ukraine will last years, not months. Eventually, Putin will bite the dust. But this could just…
The Russians are in for a long war, whether they ultimately get Ukraine or not. Insurgency with western backing would…
There are no changes to our existing hedges. We remain long the US dollar, long energy and agricultural commodities plus…
The sanctions announced by the US and Europe are not the sort of killer apps that would stop the Russian…
Our Russia hedges (long energy, agricultural commodities and gold, short bonds, equities (EU focused etc.) have worked well. A market…
Mostly and most investors view geopolitical events as of little relevance to economies and markets. In the case (60% probability)…
Tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian border might come to nothing during the Winter Olympics, but once that event is over it…
President Biden has now offered a face-to-face summit with President Putin to discuss Russia’s security concerns. So, President Biden is…
War in Ukraine is more than 50% probable in the next month. But the face-off with Russia is about far…
Fears of a new cold war with Russia have not been fully realised, even if relations remain strained. Europe is…
Russia and the West have embarked on a new type of cold war. A Clinton presidency will mean further face-offs…
Putin’s aggression first in Ukraine and now in Syria was roundly criticised. But following the recent terrorist attacks in Paris…
While the latest Ukraine ceasefire deal promises an immediate halt of violence, it cedes more territory to pro-Russian rebels and…
The dual pressure of Western sanctions and the decline in oil prices is a toxic mix for President Putin. It…
The annexation of Crimea is irreversible. But the West appears determined to curtail any further Russian encroachment, into Ukraine or…
