Our short sterling position is now closed. GBP has hit our USD1.05 target. Now it is about 3c above that…
Views Reports by Country
The following pages contain chronological lists of articles that have been written by Independent Strategy. Independent Strategy’s research is available by annual subscription. For details of subscription rates and soft dollar payments, please contact Independent Strategy by using the contact form.
The UK has had a bad pandemic. The economy shrank more than other G7 members and the country has only…
The Brexit deal is a major economic negative for the UK. The cost will become progressively apparent rather than result…
We have avoided taking a position in sterling throughout the Brexit negotiations; the odds were too binary. But the government’s…
While some might view the latest ‘postponement’ of Brexit as another example of can kicking in reality, it materially changes…
Despite dodging one hard Brexit bullet, the underlying picture for the UK hasn’t changed much. A further extension of Article…
The recent decline in UK house prices is principally function of Brexit-related uncertainty. You’d have to be mad to buy…
This is not a report that tries to divine its way through the UK’s shambolic political scene. Instead, it examines…
Prime Minister Theresa May has long insisted that the UK would leave both the Single Market and the Customs Union.…
Borrowing more and drawing down on savings can only smooth the decline in the UK’s living standards triggered by Brexit.…
The outlook for the UK economy is fraught with risks. Brexit creates obvious headwinds for consumers and corporations alike. We…
The outcome of the UK election is bad for sterling. We expect it to fall towards parity with the euro…
Theresa May should easily get the required two-thirds of votes in parliament to call her surprise general election. The outcome…
Brexit is about to begin in earnest. Yet the paucity of detail in the UK government’s White Paper betrays the…
We are sticking to our strategic short position for sterling versus the US dollar and revising our target down to…
The British government under PM Theresa May has announced that Brexit negotiations will no later than end-March 2017. So Britain…
The post-Brexit Conservative government in the UK under Theresa May has a clear run in negotiating with the EU over…
There are five options for the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU once it has left. There is the…
However you look at it, avoiding Brexit looks like an outlier scenario. So Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty should…
Post-Brexit referendum crisis
What if the UK said yes to Brexit?
Our base case is that the UK will vote to remain in the EU. But the shift in the polls…
Although the polls continue to suggest the UK’s in/out referendum is too close to call, we maintain the view that…
The UK will vote to stay in the EU. It is highly likely that UK Prime Minister David Cameron can…
The risk that the UK may decide to leave the EU within the next few years has risen with the…
The outcome of the Scottish independence referendum is likely to be close. We think ultimately Scotland will vote ‘no’, against…
