The Fed did as expected and hiked 25bp. That means trouble later.
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The strategic view of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse is that it will not become the trigger for a…
The US mid-term elections are most decisive global election of the decade. What is at stake is a global system…
The Fed will go on hiking policy rates through most of 2023. That maintains global financial market headwinds and ultimately…
The Fed raised the Federal Funds interest rate by 75bp to a target rate of 1.5-1.75%. This is a good…
It is increasingly clear that changes wrought by the pandemic will prove long-lasting. That applies to both the structure of…
The unequal distribution of US household assets is a reality. The pandemic was never going to change that. But measures…
President Biden’s decision to re-nominate Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed governing board removes some uncertainty but doesn’t alter…
The Fed might have moved closer to exiting the emergency measures implemented to counter the pandemic, but the FOMC still…
In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair sided with the doves and dismissed the risks of inflation. But the Fed…
US growth should remain robust. While government transfers continue to be pared back, the resurgence of the service sector will…
The idea that the US housing market is nearing bubble territory is far removed from reality. Prices might be rising,…
The Fed has blinked. The committee sees a need for higher rates sooner than Powell had hoped. But the Fed’s…
With Biden finally over the line (see our report US election: sorting husks from chaff, 7 November 2020), we outline…
The US election is over, bar the shouting (recounts and court cases). Unsurprisingly, Biden has won. But badly. His mandate…
We are waiting on the presidential election outturn to take a more positive stance on US financial assets, particularly equity…
The Fed’s new monetary policy framework looks aggressive in some ways. It allows the FOMC to pursue average inflation targeting…
It is hard to say much about the upcoming US elections. Biden is so bland as to be much like…
The length of a cycle does not necessarily condemn it. Indeed, the recent trend in developed markets has been towards…
We think there will be several effects from a US-China trade deal. These span import substitution, from a probable increase in US sales to China, including technology imports which will actually make it easier for China to meet its “Made in China” goals.
Based on how far the US term premium has fallen, to see any further meaningful decline in bond yields we’d need another downside macro shock.
The Fed has shifted policy on the path for the Fed Funds rate and the normalisation of its balance sheet.…
The Trump protectionist threat is the most likely cause of the next financial rout. The rot will start in equity…
The tax reform bill and fiscally expansive budget will boost GDP in the shorter-run, but the changes don’t do much…
Populism substitutes gut feel ignorance for rational policy. In the guise of President Trump, it heralds an age of insularity…
Clinton will win the presidency for two reasons. She provides a semblance of normality compared to the hot-headedness of Trump.…
The Fed can feel vindicated; markets have positively digested the first rate hike in nearly a decade, marking the start…
